My alias shows I'm a believer. I try not to make it personal but to stick to my view of facts and the science that Vical's stock value is based on. To that end, I urge others to read thoughtful articles and data, ie to do their own due diligence as investors. Traders have and will continue playing this stock until a breakout happens beyond the $2.50 to $4.50 channel this stock has been stuck in for years as it waits for validation in human (not fish or dog) trials. IMO validation is imminent, thank God.
I just re-read the Ted Cohen Seeking Alpha interview from July with a credible clinical trial stat geek. You should too. I truly believe there's a better than 50:50 chance that the death event number that Vical aimed for is low -- below 275. If I'm right, there's a very good chance Vical stock price will soar, provided the p value (showing separation between treatment and control arms due to the Allovectin drug) is strong. I'm willing to take this calculated risk, having waited patiently for the data finally to be locked and reported.
Frankly, there's way too much noise on this MB and personal banter. Yes, I'm bullish and holding a nice chunk of shares that I intend to sell in stages as the share price moves upward. Right now I'm above water with my holdings so everything north of this price is long term profit. And to see what kind of proof I see that Allovectin works, just look at the photos shown on the 2011 ASCO Poster one pager available on Vical's own web site. This is public disclosure showing how distal lung tumors shrunk after at least 2 Allovectin injection cycles in the Phase 2 study.
My understanding is hazard ratio shows how the survival curves separate with statistical significance a key for FDA approval. And history tells us that Vical's cancer platform extends life for responders. IMO we may NOT have reached MEDIAN deaths on the Allovectin side......a very good thing.....IF we get stat sig on hazard ratio.
Worth re-reading this thread in light of SA article this morning. Bottom line, what is another 6 months MOS worth in Vical Market Cap?
Using "MORON" is way above your apparent intelligence.
Any post you make that I choose to read after taking you off of IGNORE that has MORON automatically gets a thumbs down. DUDE. CHILL. We all are NOT morons. My college GPA was 4.0.
Thanks John. Good to hear from you. This point jumped out: "Vical is a thought leader in the transformation from big pharma to biotech." Bringing new Board member Morrow this year looks like a very solid move with his extensive and recent Amgen and big pharma Sr. Exec experience. Three big reasons I've remained long and strong are 1) belief in the game changing potential of Vical's Naked DNA immunotherapy and infectious disease science, 2) the smart, enduring collaborations and partner deal structures with private and public sector organizations, and 3) the relative ease of scaling drug manufacturing and out patient delivery for global markets. Signing off until we break out above $5.
My take: the presentation was by an expert in the field, not a Vical guy, lending solid credibility. Also the commentary spoke about the modified RECIST criteria being used, which is truly a wild card in our favor that can and will (IMO) trump doubting hands at this betting table.
Would love to see a "two bagger," i.e., positive PR's this spring on a couple of pipeline plays. Remember the nice surprise when the Astellas-Transvax PR came out? All eyes are on Allovectin as they should be, though Longs here know Vical has more than one hitter coming to the plate this year.
Reading some other of your posts I saw "LONG AND STRONG." As am I. If you see me pumping, no problem. Just look at my alias name. I try to support my opinion with facts and logic. So no, I'm not dreaming. I've looked at lots of facts and disclosures. The truth is, we don't know about the Allovectin results. Look back at my posts from the last 6 month delay to get my view on "how much 6 months longer survival is worth." I think it was very smart of VICL to wait after the last sweep another 6 months (again). Imagine whenever they unlock the data that median survival for the Allovectin trial arm cannot be determined?? Do you think the stock goes down in flames? Do you think the FDA would still accept and approve Allovectin if it met the primary but couldn't establish median survival benefit for the trial arm BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE LIVING LONGER?
If you drill down into which drugs the FDA approved last year you'll find an example of a cancer drug that was fast tracked because treated patients had a durable response and on average were living longer.
The Bio conference in Chicago would be a good venue for releasing top line results, followed in early June by an ASCO poster and more. Thanks for the IBD info. Tells me VICL is stepping towards the spotlight and this morning's Motley Fool item should stir some interest from individual investors.
$4.20 seems to be next resistance point on way to new 3 month and one year highs.
I'm watching the trend here as we approach release of Allovectin results. Right now over 100 institutions/funds own over 50% of shares. IMO these numbers will go up as the share price moves above $5 in coming weeks and shorts are squeezed. Time will tell.
Per your initial post on this MB as drmas1025, I doubt it too. But getting FDA approval and a "clean label" for a solid tumor vaccine must be done smartly. How much is another 6 months' survival worth in the marketplace? Hundreds of millions in annual revenues IMO. Vical's commercial rights for Allovectin should be worth upwards of $1 billion in market cap, especially when you think of other derivative formulas and applications....which will take significant investment to test and scale up. The kind of investment Vical negotiated years ago with AnGes in funding the Phase 3 testing of Allovectin in exchange for certain Asian market rights.
Vical DNA Plasmid technology would be VALIDATED IN HUMANS with a successful Allovectin trial outcome. Let's all remember that Vical was formed 25 years ago and there are MANY, MANY doubters about the efficacy of their platform in humans. I think Vical IS ready for prime time this year. And I expect a 3-5X share price pop if the end points are cleared by a hefty margin.
This thread from early February begins with genetherapy's simple, straightforward logic which I liked then and like now. I'm wondering what's going on quietly behind the scenes within the Company in anticipation of a positive Allovectin outcome?! We know they are making preparations for filing with the FDA and are hiring key positions needed to scale up production of Allovectin, per Vical postings on the web site. We know they just added a powerful new Board member with extensive big biopharma experience from Amgen. And we know the CFO got a nice package including a month of transitional support back to Vical since she left on April 1st. A perfect storm could be brewing here with share price having moved up nicely so far this year. Question: Will the next 2 million share trading day go upward or drop? IMO upward to a new 52 week high.
Maybe I'm the Board idiot....for a long time. I'm happy that VICL has held above the $3.75 wall for a couple of weeks now. This stock has "churned" (as I think they call it) in a narrow trading range between $2 and $4.50 for years now. And I'm sure many traders have done well buying/selling VICL shares as its pipeline chugs along. All I'm saying is VICL has moved nicely since January on its way back up to a new 52 week high. Time will tell when that happens. In the meantime traders will play VICL and the market week in and week out. I'm sticking with most of my position but will harvest profits on the way up. There will be plenty of traders happy to grab some of my shares, which are a tiny fraction of Mr. Singer's.
Moving back up to and above 100+ day average volume (600K+ share daily ave). Fact: This stock is up 40+% YTD and is on its way back up to a new 52 week high.....without big news!!!! If VICL breaks 2nd level resistance today, shorts will cover big time IMO and breakout could pop 10% quickly.
No. Don't have link. However there are opportunities for Vical to grab a spot in a Poster session on melanoma and for "late breaking" presentations in the clinical trials slot. Vical's web site has a copy of the poster they presented at a prior ASCO. Think about seeing an updated version with the Phase 3 sweep data reflected, along with a PowerPoint briefing that updates Vijay's road show slides that he's apt to use this afternoon. If we see a PR in late April or early May stating that Vical will be at ASCO, IMO it's a very good sign. Time will tell.
I'm interested in how top line results are summarized for the ASCO meeting in Chicago June 1-4. If the sweep takes a few weeks, this should give 2-3 weeks to prepare a preliminary summary of results for both end points in time for releasing during this bright spotlight event.
CFO's leave for various reasons. Ms. Broadfoot stuck with Vical for many years and was promoted and paid handsomly. She avoided financial surprises in a volatile situation for a high Beta biotech. Maybe she was offered something sweeter with a less stressful situation. Maybe she's made enough to retire early (once all options are exercised). Maybe she was "excused" because a changing of the guard is starting. Time will tell. Patience.
Timing of CFO resignation says end of month/end of quarter exit. New Board member, Mr. Morrow, has taken over compensation committee control for Vical. Note he has VERY recent operational responsibility at Amgen.... a major global biopharma. IMO Vical's Board is moving towards big news and big change assuming success with strategic programs.
Your POV on the surprising departure of the CFO is thoughtful and astute IMO. Vical moving into prime time, as CEO Samant has mentioned many times in recent years, means moving out of the shadows as an under $5/share microcap into the major leagues. It's time for the scientists to hold the door open for position players who can predictably drive up market cap and shareholder value above the $1 billion market cap level. And a strong company has a strong CFO who shares the quarterly call details with Vijay. And whoever Vical partners with for strategic programs for cancer, CMV and other infectious diseases may be interested in a "prime time" CFO -- someone with proven credentials and relations with Wall St. and multi-national big pharma companies. Ms. Broadfoot will become a very wealthy person when her options and stock holdings pop as Vical's forward revenues grow clearer and solidify. Think about Vical becoming a wholly owned entity of a big pharma in coming months/years. The likely takeover company could have a direct voice to Vical's Board in placing conditions in advance of a deal. This could be such a move. Time will tell.