my take is that this continues to be fairly dead money. 1.59B market cap on revenue of around 300MM per quarter revenue run rate. one could argue that this is not much, if any, of a multiple but when the CEO uses words like "despite" and "well positioned", seems like a bit of "excuse". Looking at ACN and IBM, SAPE seems to be delivering some less favorable numbers across the board.
137MM shares outstanding now seems to imply that they continue to issue stock and options at a fairly high rate.
survey says... no... doesn't look good.. trying to put a positive spin.. not bad.. so.. previous runup.. erased...
well, the recent movement is indicative of this being dead money for a while. volume is way down (looking like 90% down - even with holiday season around) being less than a million shares traded in many of the last 20 sessions shows that people are not interested in parking their money.
with their recent acquisition of the trading and risk management firm in the UK, clearly they seem to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. further deterioration in the markets is going to be the case - IT spending will lag a come back so, for much of 2009, they may have significant difficulties - also, these are people that are much higher paid and therefore the carry costs will be higher.
further, with the destablization in the mid east, there potentially will be more impact on SAPE to the downside.
would actually like to see US headcount come down significantly in order to justify any upward movement and maintain their profit margins. would also show that they realize that there is a slowdown that will and is effecting everyone.
but in any case you put it out there, it is going to be dead money for a while. i would be surprised to see the 2 range but equally surprised to see the 5 range for a while. i think even the pumpers realize that there isn't going to be any hot action for a while...
oh, and the goofy visionary flash on the website, i think it points to a disconnect rather than resonating with clients and potential clients. just my 2 cents...
well, i'm not sure if you classify me as a basher but i have been following this stock for quite a while. i have been negative and remain to be - especially in this market.
with sapient making approx 20% of their revenue from the financial services sector, i think they have a double wammy. not only will financial services back down on even existing work but also, the marketing and strategy that sapient says is so important is actually quite irrelevant in this market. i think that they are poorly positioned.
in listening to conference calls, i think they are kidding themselves around how companies are budgeting. budgets continue to be cut no matter the industry and again, digital marketing, while important, the appetite to take risk as it pertains to spends, it just ain't going to happen. companies will move to doing things on the cheap...
now, particular to be shorting this stock, it really isn't worth it. given the low price, not terribly interested and there is not much of a risk / reward benefit.
while i believe that the results are decent, i do not see it spectacular and therefore, the stock does not deserve a terribly large premium. i believe that the current price reflects a "fair" price and justifies it's current position.. but nothing more...
wouldn't go that far about it being the worst run companies. it did survive where iXL, Scient, Viant, etc are essentially no longer in existance. i think they screwed up some of the acqusitions but they seem to still be around so you have to give them credit for that.
i do think that with the slowing economy, they are going to get nailed pretty hard. just thinking that they did say in the last earnings call that there is a significant amount of their revenue in financial services. that will pretty much dry up as much of what they do is discretionary in the eyes of financial firms. additionally, they had a lot of international work and with the strenghtening dollar, that's also going to hurt them.
perhaps SAPE would claim that is when you need their help the most but i would say that that is somewhat of a farce and marketing bs. but, we'll see.
now, having said that, they probably exited Q3 decently, and my call is that they are not going to issue guidance or if they do, they will bring it down significantly.
hahahah.. you guys are friggin funny. you got your ass raped and with your shortin, you're going to get another ass rapin again.
then again, based on the SEC rules, you're not going to be shortin anything. JPM is on the list of non-shortable stocks. nice try.. nice thought...
so, with the goldman downgrade... economy sucking eggs... will we see 5 dollar range for SAPE again?
that doesn't concern me. those founders are fine with taking their money and run - they're fairly irrelevant at this point.
what concerns me is that the new management continues to line thier own pockets. get this from the latest filing:
"Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, Dr. Oversohl will receive an annual base salary of 240,000 (euro), retroactive to July 1, 2007, and will also be eligible for an annual bonus/performance incentive, with a minimum target amount of 150,000 (euro) for FY2007 and 165,000 (euro) for each of FY2008 and FY2009. Dr. Oversohl's bonuses shall be earned, accrued and/or paid in accordance with the Company's bonus plan then in effect for Managing Directors and/or Vice Presidents.
Under the Agreement, Dr. Oversohl is also granted 40,000 restricted stock units ("RSUs") of the Company's common stock. The RSUs are subject to time-based vesting over three (3) years, beginning August 1, 2007 (the "Vest Commencement Date"). Thirty-Three Percent (33%) of the RSUs will vest on February 1, 2009 (eighteen (18) months following the Vest Commencement Date), and Sixty-Seven Percent (67%) of the RSUs will vest on August 1, 2010 (the third anniversary of the Vest Commencement Date), so long as Dr. Oversohl is still employed on the applicable vest date.
Additionally, under the Agreement, the Company shall contribute a premium of 20,000 (euro) per annum to a pension scheme for the benefit of Dr. Oversohl. Further, in lieu of Dr. Oversohl being provided a Company car, he shall receive an additional monthly payment of 1,200 (euro), retroactive to July 1, 2007, payable in accordance with Sapient Germany's normal payroll schedule. "
terrible for the shareholders. just another fat cat lining thier own pockets. $585k minimum compensation for the year. add this to the list...
where do you get low volume? it's exceeded the average daily volume...
seriously folks. this thing is going to continue to trade sideways. look at the trailing and forward looking PE. look at the fact that it is below the 50 day moving average. look at low growth % Q2Q and PE:Growth ratios. compare these numbers to market cap.
8.5 implies over a billion market cap. keep also in mind i was suprised when i went to look at the shares outstanding that they have ballooned to 125MM. They were 121MM shares outstanding just a few months back DESPITE having a share buyback program... which will further dilute earnings. sr. management continues to line their own pockets and those of their friends... in my humble opinion...
don't get me wrong, they are probably going to continue to do well, but their price continues to exceed their actual value and will be a couple of years before you start to see things catch up.
based on my calculations, this is a 700-800MM market cap company which puts it approximately at present value with perhaps a slight premium.
no disrespect...but... seems to be doing opposite of what you're predicting... has now dropped to pre-earnings level...
kinda funny when you think about it - a "contra" fund buying which implies that the sentiment on what they buy is mostly negative.
on the other hand, the pattern of a runup really has not happened this time around. perhaps people are cautious and with the upside earlier this week of the overall market and the virtual standstill of this stock... people are worried.
will be interesting to watch the action tomorrow morning..........
funny you should say that... i think investors don't appear to give a crap -> notice that JPM market cap closed today at 139B and C closed at 130B... and.. net net.. i do recall that this quarter, lost money... no? JPM made 3B?
sorry, don't follow C very much but 3B in net income internationally for C sounds a bit high. Could see that in revenue... you sure? not saying you're wrong on this one... sounds a little high...
not only did C make a mistake.. they made a collosal mistake compared to ANY of their piers. Prince, who was touted as someone that would "fix" the controls, probably made things worse or more realistically, didn't know... at least until it was too late...
what's all this crap about "merger"? Both LEH and WM combined are not even 1/2 the marketcap of JPM. It is a flat out aquisition situation.
1) i think the dividend is safe. i think the fact that they have not announced huge losses (compared to others) is a great sign that they will not need to reduce their dividend.
2) it has been a long time since jamie has acquired a company or a merger so, i would expect that that would happen in 2008
3) jamie may actually try to out due his competation by not only not decreasing the dividend but actually increasing it. i would say that if profit is over $1B this quarter, i think there will be a feeling of safety and a liklihood of increasing the dividend
4) even if the broader market continues to have issues, i think that that is mostly built into the stock. while there may be additional downside, i think if your horizon is 5+ years... nothing to worry about..
and YOU need to realize that all of JPMC's competators are doing the same exact thing. if jpmc isn't in the game, it will lose market share and guess what? instead of getting an email like this.. they'll be getting a pink slip and an invitation to the unemployment line.
get over it. this is capitalism! you yourself want convenience ... as the infinitely wise judge from caddyshack once said... "the world needs ditch diggers too...". perhaps not to that extreme but no everyone is going to be confortable...
finally, this is a free world.. if they don't like it and think that conditions are so poor.. go to one of the competators! change jobs..
to be specific, from your own post ->
"Full-time employees who work on these dates will receive regular pay for the day, plus a floating holiday*."
guess what, all of JPMC's competators are opening on those days... gotta compete. that's the nature of retail. if you don't like it.. get another job...