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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 93 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 11:27 AM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Reply to

    WARRANTS AND SHARE COUNT

    by govpur Jul 11, 2016 9:05 AM
    govpur govpur Jul 11, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    Ummm...you are up 40 percent this morning!

  • Any feedback from board on today's announcement? I read it 3 times and my take away that this is really good news. Future dilution is getting reduced significantly- 3.6 warrants are getting taken out per share as opposed to 1 for 1. Also, as of July 8th the share repurchase program has taken out close to 1 million shares and 500,000 warrants. AND there is $14.5M still to go. Analysts should be revising earnings up to reflect 1M shares being taken out, maybe we will see that before 22 July. My personal belief is that they are doing everything right operationally and now on the capital structure side. Once the higher growth kicks in 2017 and beyond, this should respond accordingly by year end as market should be ahead of facts.

  • govpur govpur Jun 27, 2016 5:40 PM Flag

    Can you discuss why HPT will NEVER sell TA? I have been tracking this stock for quite sometime and have read the articles about the criminal leases HPT puts on TA, but why did this firm want to buy at $14, don't they know that? I think this goes back to $7 if your thesis is true. Shareholder revolt if back to $6.41. Regretting I did not buy down there but can't seem to pull trigger now

  • Reply to

    Dead End For This Company

    by leehab22 Jun 21, 2016 9:59 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 27, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    Your thesis may be right but the REAL reason ALL refiners are getting killed is China refineries are dumping product on the world market in epic proportions. The writing was on wall this spring when RBOB moved up but refiners did not bounce. I got burned on ALJ really bad trying to play the summer demand but gas and distillate inventories will most likely build through summer. Wednesday will tell us more but that is the sad fact of what has been happening. Now add in the market is down triple digits every day and this stock is toast. Not sure where bottom is but waiting on DK is a suckers game. Even if they do take it out I am convinced it will be for little or no premium.

  • Really good news in a real bad market. I bought back today at $8.50. Any other market and this stock would have been up ten percent on this news. Every fund tied to this index must now own TACO. They are doing everything right and I am convinced we are in a WMT, MCD, TACO economy for the foreseeable future. TACO will beat numbers as share count has most likely been reduced significantly this quarter. Mr. Levy and friends will coordinate an expedited, expanded growth outlook sometime before 2017 and then this stock becomes a darling. That, of course, is only my thesis but why I bought back today. There was talk of Del coming to Chicago two years ago. That will be announced soon and is also what no one is modeling. GLTA LONGS!!

  • Per IR website the "founder shares" are available to sell next Thursday, 30 June. There are 3.75 million of them, or 10 percent of float. Besides Levy's who own 2/3, who owns the rest? Also, any opinions on what happens would be appreciated. They were issued for free to founders. Almost seems criminal but that has been put out from beginning. It is interesting the stock went below $12 right before this letter was put out last year as trading above $12 for a certain period would have also let the lockup expire. Plus, add in the fact GS sold all their shares in January as it approached $12 and it seems like no one wanted the shares to be above $12 so lockup would not expire. Not sure what to make of all of this but seems pretty shady. Any insight from board would be appreciated. Disclosure: I am out now but thinking of buying again. Was hurt pretty bad first time but like the company and what they are trying to do.

  • Posted for conference tomorrow which will be webcast. They seem to be doing everything right and when Platos goes nationwide this fall it can really impact earnings. I get what they are doing, which is building a foundation this year and next before the REAL growth kicks in. Makes sense; brand perception is changing and adding the evening meal option, Platos, will drive sales so that all new units can achieve $1.5M AUV from the start. Wall street is impatient however and shares are on sale. Think earnings will outperform as share count, at this price, is meaningfully reduced at the $25M authorized. Eliminates any/all dilution from warrants which they may be eliminating with this buyback as well.

  • Cramer believes it's worth betting that Del Taco Restaurants Inc
    TACO is going to recover. He also thinks the whole sector is under a lot of pressure and he thinks investors have to be careful with this stock.

  • Reply to

    Still Pathetic

    by cashewking05301 Jun 2, 2016 2:49 PM
    govpur govpur Jun 16, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    I think Levy and company should take it private. Get the growth story going and then do a real IPO. There is a great story here and the brand perception is changing. Stock not reflecting any of it. Take it private and come back at a premium when time is right

  • Reply to

    PARR PURCHASES WYOMING REFINING FOR $272M

    by govpur Jun 14, 2016 8:54 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 14, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    With the moves in ALJ and ALDW today the market is now valuing all ALJ assets, other than ALDW stake, at about $170M. Let me remind that this includes the Krotz Springs refinery (77,000 bpd), Altair stake (renewable jet fuel), California refineries with approved rail hub, Krotz Spring wholesale business, entire retail business of 309 stores, and all related logistics assets identified in latest presentation for basis of potential Logistics MLP. PARR just paid $272M for a 18,000 bpd refinery and small logistics asset footprint. SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE HERE!

  • This should be an indicator that DK will have to offer substantially above current price to complete ALJ acquisition. $272M (includes debt) for a 18,000 bpd refinery and some related logistic assets. ALJ enterprise value which includes debt is ONLY $846M. This includes 81.6% of ALDW, Krotz Springs refinery, Altair renewable investment, retail/wholesale businesses, and Asphalt business which is starting to shine with Highway Bill. BTW, the enterprise value of ALDW is $786M (times 81.6 is $641M) meaning the market is valuing everything except Big Spring refinery (ALDW) at $205M, an extreme discount to what PARR just paid for one 18,000 bpd refinery. This is a market dislocation, plain and simple, which has to correct. Fair value of ALJ is north of $10.

  • Reply to

    ALJ 8K

    by govpur Jun 3, 2016 1:09 PM
    govpur govpur Jun 6, 2016 10:27 AM Flag

    Personally, I think $10 is fair however in this environment probably not going to happen. I think $9 would avoid lawsuits or potential conflict of interest concerns. The quicker they do this the better for both companies. The logistics MLP would definitely help ALJ right here but that seems on hold pending acquisition. For same reason, DK could immediately announce intentions for ALJ logistics assets for DLK like WNR did for NTI log assets. It is clear the analysts want this transaction and would most likely upgrade DK once it executed.

  • govpur by govpur Jun 3, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    Did anyone else read the 8K they posted this morning? It would appear the change of control provision was triggered on May 31st. Am I reading this right? I assume DK now has control and needs to negotiate a fair price to take out the remaining large shareholders. DK will almost certainly offer stock as part of deal so it is incumbent on them to offer a fair price as these large shareholders will want to be retained by DK after the close. If DK does it right I could see where both stocks rise on the announcement. The combined entity will have a great refining, logistics, wholesale and retail footprint. I plan on keeping my shares.

  • Good news for ALJ:
    Jeff Brorman, vice president, refining, told the Reporter-Telegram in a phone interview that the refinery has been running at its maximum rate since late March.

    A planned reformer regeneration and diesel hydrotreater catalyst replacement was made during the first quarter, and Brorman said that such equipment typically has a limited life span and refineries usually replace every 12 to 18 months.

  • govpur by govpur Jun 2, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    RBOB approaching multi month high today. Can anyone help me understand why this is not more bullish for refiners at this time? As I watched it go from 1.20 to almost 1.70 I thought the refinery stocks would be doing better. Most are still near 52 week lows while RBOB up over 40%.

  • Reply to

    SHARE REPURCHASES

    by govpur May 3, 2016 8:41 AM
    govpur govpur May 31, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    I think the long term growth story in intact. The last year of underperformance has more to do with wages. The minimum wage increase in CA is the reason it declined primarily. Also, not sure if the new rule passed 2 weeks ago regarding paying salaried workers overtime if they make below 40K affects TACO, but this most recent decline pretty much started right when that was passed. If anyone here can contribute to how that affects TACO, thanks. All wage increases, in theory, get passed along to consumers and all fast food has same pressures, so not sure why TACO seems to get beat so bad with it. Someone here had previously posted TACO is dead money until 2017 when growth starts to ramp up. That may be true and the wage issues seems to have put a downward bias to this stock, unfortunately.

  • govpur by govpur May 24, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Spoke with IR today and was happy to hear that they share our frustration about the share price. Stated that the recent insider sales were to fill tax obligations which is understandable. Anyway, really added today after speaking today and am hopeful improving cracks, Rin credit from CA operations, and surging asphalt demand will result in better share price. Not even considering DK buyout in investment thesis. Good luck to longs. I own WNR as well.

  • Reply to

    Hard Lesson in stock trading

    by binturong13 May 17, 2016 5:22 PM
    govpur govpur May 20, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    Good post however crack spreads have improved dramatically this quarter so far and summer driving season ahead of us. Gas and distillate draws been huge last two weeks. The DK CEO had been spouting for 2 years he wants to expand refining footprint. Last May he took 48 percent of ALJ and the prohibition for taking the rest is now off. Something is going to happen. Either the market is throwing a tantrum because it did not happen the exact day the restriction ended or maybe now the market thinks there won't be a premium. Who knows but I am here for the ride!

  • govpur by govpur May 20, 2016 10:13 AM Flag

    I think it will be announced Monday. We are past the waiting period and with the decline in ALJ the ratio to DK is now quite attractive. Even with a premium to $9 it is still below the .65 ratio the CEO often talks about

  • Reply to

    Crack Spreads

    by govpur May 18, 2016 5:16 PM
    govpur govpur May 19, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Well said but hard to time. Can anyone on this board tell me one other industry currently that has declining input costs and record demand for its products? Earlier this week I went to a chevy dealership and the salesman told me the only vehicles selling are trucks and SUV's. Record Products volume will be what ultimately stabilizes oil in the future and refineries are the ONLY place to be in energy sector while that plays out!

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