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Nuance Communications, Inc. Message Board

guy11288 9 posts  |  Last Activity: May 24, 2016 9:51 AM Member since: Aug 5, 2003
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  • Reply to

    QUESTION FOR TIMEWARP

    by cashbar1 May 23, 2016 4:54 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 May 24, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    Generally speaking I agree with buy and hold...which is why I bought 10k shares at 29-ish over 2 yrs ago. "Unfortunately" I sold in the 90's. But I've been nibbling here and there capitalizing on $4-$5 moves. Buy and hold would have netted be a good amount more profit...we learn as we go man.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    QUESTION FOR TIMEWARP

    by cashbar1 May 23, 2016 4:54 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 May 23, 2016 8:13 PM Flag

    Upper 114's? Big long term fan here but FB is only $1.80 away from the 50-MA and EVERYTIME it comes close it goes past it by a few bucks. Coincidentally the current pivot support is at 109 and the trend line from the last 2 highs before the pop (116.99 and 114.04) is hovering around 109.50 as of 5/24 (give or take a few pennies). Remember that that trend line was former resistance which has now turned into a support line since FB blew past it.

    Also note that the high on the day before the pop was 108.94 (lets call it 109) so if you believe in gap filling then this is yet another reason to be careful in the very short term.

    I would not be surprised at all to see a down day tomorrow followed by a hammer with a long lower tail all the way down to 109 this week.

    I'd say if you wanted to get in put in an order for 110-111 and just leave it for a few days. Depending on how what I see tomorrow I'll prob do just that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 May 2, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    I think so too but I think NFLX will have a much better run in the next 3 months. Out FB at 19.42. In NFLX at 89.35. Looking for a $10 NFLX move vs a $5 FB move from here. Will still add a little more FB but not as much as NFLX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just thinking about the possibilities of FB acquiring NFLX since FB's market cap went up by the entire NFLX's value in about 10 weeks.

    FB would enter the subscription model for revenue.
    FB already started testing premiering the first episode of a few shows on FB (Ballers comes to mind).
    NFLX is a video product. Imagine the video ad targeting that could be done by FB!
    NFLX users stream TWO HOURS per day on average. Lots of video ad opportunity.

    Just some ramblings!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sold my 500 shares. Made $10 / share. Now look at Nov 5th. A new ATH and break above R1 on Pivot lines, only to close with a doji that day. 7 trading days later the gap was filled. Not sure that will happen here but I'm ready to pull the trigger if it does. Any TA's out there care to weight in.....OTHER than "FB to $300". I want that too but want to discuss the next 2-3 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 by guy11288 Apr 27, 2016 4:23 PM Flag

    Great job FB and longs. I only had 500 @ 109.90. 106.50 is looking damn good right about now. I'll take a small profit over a loss any day.

    But is it just me or does this line re 2 class of shares not sit well with others:

    "This proposal is designed to create a capital structure that will, among other things, allow us to remain focused on Mr. Zuckerberg's long-term vision for our company and encourage Mr. Zuckerberg to remain in an active leadership role at Facebook."

    Encourage? hmmm

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Read this from a Twitter report:
    Twitter blamed the shortfall on “slower than expected growth in brand advertising spend.”

    I really want to believe this is simply FB eating everyone's lunch. Anyone see/hear of anything else in the advertising industry that suggests advertising slowed down in Q1 more than normal?

    If so post the source.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FB is going down?

    by intelagent11 Apr 26, 2016 4:15 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Apr 26, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    Dont worry yourself about thumbs downs. I was in at 29-ish and effectively sold at 90. Missed lots of good runup after that, but was still able to get a 100-110 earlier this year. There will be many many dips over the next 2-3 years so just pace yourself, have a plan, and be disciplined and stick with it. Don't let fear or greed dictate anything....and for heaven's sake, dont let a post on a msg board either!

    I have 500 @ 109.90 that I'll prob hold through earnings. Sitting on enough cash to buy 4000 shares more. On Feb 5th FB had a -$6.50 day. If we were to drop like that tomorrow we'd be around the 200-MA at 101.50-ish.

    As a reference:
    NFLX is down 17% in 5-days
    TWTR is down 13% in after hours
    AAPL is down 14% in 7 days + after hours
    GOOGL is down 7.5% in 3 days
    FB is already down 7.5% in 2 days + after hours

    Prob not going to happen, but I'd LOAD THE F UP big time if I could get my hands on some 101's. Especially given, Olympics, Elections, Video Ads, Oculus that will all help keep the momentum going this year, or at a minimum, limit the downside.

    Best of luck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Concern about earnings

    by a1lz1 Apr 25, 2016 11:15 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Apr 26, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    Yes, we know Q4's are seasonally strong vs Q1's. But I respectfully disagree with a couple points you've made.

    1. Q1 2016 will be compared with Q1 2015 but that is irrelevant for us. What is relevant is Q1 2016 vs analyst numbers. It doesn't matter how much better this Q1 is over Q1 2015, if we miss REV and EPS FB will be down 10% easily.

    2.Last Q, FB was down big for the 2 weeks leading up to earnings and was down $3 on the day of earnings. And what happened? FB went on a huge $20 run. If there was a leak I imagine we'd have seen more buying into last Qtr's earnings.

    Now it could be argued that it went down so the big boys could "get it cheap", and the volume on the day before earnings was double the normal. But then that begs the question, is FB being propped up now so the big boys can sell? I think all these conspiracies just over-complicate the truth....which is no one really knows WT* is going on. :)

    I wish it could have made a stronger move either way rather than just sitting $7 below the all-time-high. Cant tell if this is the new base/support, or if we are about to fall off a cliff.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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