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TORM A/S Message Board

h5n1eric 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 1:15 PM Member since: Jan 15, 2009
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  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 29, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    Western Refining upgraded by Tudor PickeringBriefing.com(Tue, Jun 28)

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 14, 2016 10:09 PM Flag

    correct...cost avg it...same with WNR....very nice yields...just keep it small...and avg it...(got some of both today at decent prices...gimmie more, lower...fine with me)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    10-15 bucks up in one day

    by wmdjddfnfnfnf Jun 14, 2016 2:37 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 14, 2016 10:05 PM Flag

    started a small position in WMR / VLO today...nice yields...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    be patient

    by xsun1977 Jun 7, 2016 2:03 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 9, 2016 1:06 AM Flag

    oh, lowered my next "buy" to 12.75...whatever...I'm seeing so much CB greasing...keeping rates low...propping up asset prices...I'm thinkin' about adding some GLD...just a hedge...I think they'll go to QE4 next year (world GDP figures and US GDP figures have been lowered substantially, so they have to prop things up more and more....They don't seem to wanna climb off the tiger's back...rock-hard place...But the easiest thing to do is generally what they do...and printing money is easier than tackling econ issues via Congress & President...If Hillery gets in ...QE4...etc etc...just a continuation of things....zzzzz

  • Reply to

    be patient

    by xsun1977 Jun 7, 2016 2:03 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 8, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    Well, for the record.(be on record)...I opted to put in some orders at 12.90 & 12.80 ...I decided I'd play it for a trade...i.e. 12.80 being the low (of a range?)and maybe look for pops back to 13.30-13.40...This is all guessing...playing...Call it boredom. But I did feel that HRTG would probably be stepping back in to buy up more shares under 13...but this not some scientific game...Just "fun bets"...One did fill (12.90)...ummmm...and if the shares pop back into the 13.30 area, I'll sell em' back....Not gonna get rich tho.....It is sad tho, that they only opted to raise that divvy a penny...They know what they have to do, to pop the stock (get thye yield to 3%+)...and they do have shares, so at some point...4-5 years...when vested...they'll take more interest in moving the stock back up...cause' it's ALL ABOUT THEM.

  • Reply to

    be patient

    by xsun1977 Jun 7, 2016 2:03 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 7, 2016 3:55 PM Flag

    Maybe this is the plan ...to be greedy mgmt. types...and stingy with the divvy yield...drive the shares way down...buy em' back, cheap (well, they need em' to hand out more options to the super mgmt. team)...and then...and then?...They surprise everyone by doubling the dividend, to compete on yield, with all the other insurers...and the stock goes to the $16-20 range....Problem is - will they do that?...I'm in the "SHOW ME" camp....If they do a super divvy hike, I'll get back in...but probably miss the initial pop...but I can wait...SHOW ME FIRST... that you know what you're doing...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 7, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    Yo...mgmt. could have EASILY boosted up the stock price, if they'd read my email to them telling them to raise their "payout ratio" equal to that of UVE...i.e. to double or even triple the ultra low payout ratio...and BOOST the DIVIDEND YIELD to something around what UVE / MET / PRU pay (3.5%) ...But they jacked it a penny instead of 5-10 cents...Most of the money went into the mgmt.'s pockets instead...almost 'criminal"...So, no unless / until they jack up the dividend to equal the yield on many other insurance companies, this dog...ahhh...will remain a DOG...They COULD HAVE changed things if they'd listened to me...but apparently, they are tone deaf...and in some other world??...They must see what they've caused, right? You'd think so - which is another reason to stay away ...UNTIL THEY ACKNOWLEDGE their errors of mistreatment of shareholders...and if they don't (and they haven't to date)...well, it's now "SHOW ME" time...The stock is DEAD until they change their ways, on the dividend / payout ratio...period...period...dead money.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 7, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    PS...but ELON MUSK said we probably live in a computer simulated world....I sorta share that view...(I wouldn't have shared my feelings on it, but since Musk did...I have cover...won't get put into an asylum)...What I'm trying to say, to make everyone a lil' happier, is that these loses we've had in the HRTG shares...well...ahhh...they aren't real !! Thank God !! Thank you ELON !!

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 7, 2016 11:48 AM Flag

    Yeah...Well, you know I'm a value investor...and so I did all the valuation DD...etc etc...and looked great...But the realization that MGMT was just a bunch of greedy B's...well, that was not part of my DD....hahaha....
    You'd think...you'd really think... that MGMT would get embarrassed about their remunerations, vs. the horrible stock price movement over the last year...i.e. the 2 don't seem to be correlated...If they got paid according to shareholder 'returns', they'd not even be getting a salary this year, or last...So, sometimes I can pick good winners...but every now and then, you get bit by something you did not take into account...In this case, it was ULTRA Greedy MGMT...OH WELL...
    (PS...still mostly in cash...let the markets have some euphoria...I suspect Hillery will win...and a continuation of Obama policies...markets should rally early on...then drop back on the realization of slow growth, via higher taxes and more regs... markets pull back?...Then QE comes back - it's propped Obama up for 7 years...why not 4 more...risk on...rich get richer / poor will get poorer...Don't know when the game will end...it's sorta funny - a FED driven economy for 7 years....hahaha. is what it is.

  • Oh, maybe call it a value trap, but not in the traditional sense - just a bunch of greedy guys running the company...It finally dawns on you that they just are not too shareholder friendly...If they'd doubled the dividend, maybe that would have helped...But heck, If I desired an insurance company, then MET / PRU offer a 3.5% dividend...Anyway, I took profits on the WDC / ARCB / RRTS / RAIL...and yeah, I have to admit that I did sell off a ton of the HRTG between 14.25-14.50 awhile back, even tho I felt it might continue higher (which it did not)...It was just my "push" to raise my % cash position going into November. So, I have 'lists and lists' of stocks I've followed over the years, but I'm just keeping my fingers from buying anything until...until...until November and beyond...until something comes up...correction in the markets? small recession?...or maybe some great deal on a stock?...But I'm pretty cash rich...I'd love to "play" again...I love investing...but I'm just gonna be patient...wait for a better opportunity...better prices (and sadly, I still hold about 800 shares of HRTG...I'D PROBABLY SELL MORE OFF, OVER $14...GL !!! NOVEMBER !!! BIDEN OR TRUMP?

  • ...where the 50-day moving avg crosses below the 100 day....the last 2 times that occurred (2001 /2008) we saw drops of 37% and 48%....So, I'm walking around my "hovel" in San Diego, mumbling "death cross...death cross"...where's my Cabarnet ! calm my nerves....This could the big one...a return to 'reality"...lions lying down with sheep...dogs & cats..."gender identity" bathrooms...anti-establishment candidates...hmmm...Oh well, I'm at 92.5% cash....whatever happens, happens...But I just could not see any real upside to this market without more and more "money printing" (risk/reward...my alpha-omega)....Yeah, we had a recovery...but just how much was FED propping...and politics...and financial engineering...I'm too old for this "C"...gimmie a good 25-50% correction...as we head into NOVEMBER....

  • "I'm sticking with my '2 percent upside and 20 downside' prediction on U.S. stocks.... it's working, I can see it going to 1,600."

  • Reply to

    well...grabbed some at 12.10...

    by h5n1eric May 5, 2016 10:55 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric May 14, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    excerpt..."Investors might take note then of the current multiple of the equity market. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 16.4 times, versus the 10-
    year average of 14.2 times. It has been creeping up too. The same ratio was 16.1 times at the start of the first quarter, reflecting a 0.4% rise in the index while earnings estimates have declined.

    Edgerton warns not to be fooled. Earnings began falling in 2000 and 2007, providing some warning of the 2001 and 2008 recession. Yet, analysts at the time, Edgerton says, like now, dismissed the drops initially, saying it was just high-tech and just financials. “An optimistic analyst could have convinced himself there was nothing to worry about,” he says.

    And they would have been very, very wrong... "

    (I'm at 85% cash...stepping aside, basically, until NOV...and beyond? individual decision...I just desire dry powder right now)

  • Reply to

    Funds loading...GLTA...

    by ndfootballgeek May 12, 2016 7:44 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric May 12, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    Yeah...even tho I have 80% in cash now, 10% is in HRTG with the remaining 10% invested in some others...I did opt for some WDC today...near it's 52 week low...Great company - just a lousy sector...shrinking...But they are the leader...good divvy / good payout ratio / low debt, etc...so, I'll cost avg it...Chart guys say it can go much lower...I don't know about that - so, I'll cost avg if it does, for the divvy....GL

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    well...grabbed some at 12.10...

    by h5n1eric May 5, 2016 10:55 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric May 11, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    Gosh...well, I'm gettin' so tired of this market...tired of playin'...well, I am an older guy...hahaha...I guess I'm just infatuated with cash & gardening now...I even sold off some more stocks today, like AMAG / ENDP / ARCB / RRTS....booked gains and losses (net)...but makes Fidelity happy.....80% cash now....Oh, I know I had until NOV to get to 80%...and I'm not sayin' I won't buy tads of things along the way...Maybe it's the new "bathroom issue" that has me 'down'? I lived a long life with just MEN / WOMEN (HERREN und DAMEN) toilet facilities...I think the world has gone NUTS...Either something's in the bottled water (plasticizer?)...or maybe cellphones have altered people's brains?...But I've never seen such craziness. I DID SEE THE EXIT POLL QUESTIONS...92% of people "have had it" with the FED GOVT...So, we're gonna have an Establishment vs. Anti-establishment GENERAL ELECTION & Jeff Gundlach (bond king) says TRUMP will win...I even read some 27 y.o. lady's comments on Trump...She hates Trump 7 ways to Sunday...but she said she'll vote for him - just wants CHANGE !!...GL
    everyone....MR. CASH / SAN DIEGO (ps...still have my HRTG shares tho...)

  • Reply to

    well...grabbed some at 12.10...

    by h5n1eric May 5, 2016 10:55 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric May 10, 2016 12:47 PM Flag

    I think we'll see $16 at some point....I do have lots of cash right now, but I do run into stocks to buy...Like ARCB / RRTS...up about 4% and 13% respectively, in a week...and did get some LCI back, today, under $18...and even got some ENDP at 15.50...I wasn't gonna, but given they have so many generics, it's probably a decent bet, on enterprise value (?)...well find out...Oh, and did get some RAIL 2 days ago...maybe up about 3-4% on that one....One I got, but hasn't done well, is AMAG...maybe down 3% on it...small position....Oh, and I did get some WDC in the $36's...then it popped back nicely...nice divvy / decent debt / good payout ratio...whatever...BUT...BUT, I still have November in my sights...i.e. when YELLEN will no longer have to support Obama and Hillery...After Nov, all bets are OFF....and I hope to be around 80% cash, at a minimum (right now, at 68% cash)....I'd rather sit on the sidelines when that time comes...just to be SAFE...Where the markets go after that, I don't know?...and what the CB's will be doing?...continue to 'prop" the markets for the rich?...hahaha
    HRTG still my biggest holding...uh huh...yep.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric May 6, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    I feel a good ol' Oct 1987 flash crash coming on...if I'm right, i'll be a genius...if I'm wrong, no one will remember my prediction...how can I lose?

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric May 6, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    59% cash...i'm hungry for a chick-fil-a

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric May 5, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    hahaha...yeah...he right...then he's wrong...then right...wrong....hahaha...nothing better to do? too much time on his hands, searching for ego....Anyway, looks like all the pre-selling the last few months was already discounted into the earning's release? But I'll not make predictions...short term...fool's game...I've got 46% in CASH...and hope to get it to around 80% before the elections...Me and Druckenmiller...This 5-6 yr WEIMAR 'liquidity driven' market is old in the tooth, imo...but they did keep that housing bubble going for years, until it popped ...But generally, historically, recessions come about via big rate hikes by the FED (yellen won't do that, to protct Obama and get H into the WH...but after the elections?)...or by some psychological factors...sentiment...or "last fool into the 'game'?...But the "computer robots" control trading now...(skylab !!? hahaha)...So, could even get some one day, 23% plunge, ala OCT 1987 ...I'd not be surprised...black swan...to get valuations to saner levels...I LIKE CASH.