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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

h8filledstr8shooter 521 posts  |  Last Activity: May 26, 2016 2:54 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2006
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  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter May 26, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    How's it going, ISIS/IONS longs? As I've written before, it's headed to under $10. Enjoy the rest of the miserable ride down, you anchored, ignorant losers.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Results of my Summer 2015 prediction

    by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 16, 2016 10:39 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 16, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    You don't see how I would know any of this for the same reason you don't understand PPC: because you're a retail investor who is woefully unqualified for making well-reasoned self-directed stock picks. My brother's a doctor, and brilliant, but he generally makes unspectacular stock investment decisions because he has the same limited understanding that you do. Actually, he was a GOGO long at the same time that I was short; fortunately, I was able to convince him to dump his shares when it was around 20. I'm not going to take out anyone's spleen, or design a building; a doctor or architect shouldn't think that they're going to succeed in stock-picking without my combination of top-tiered education, experience, and intelligence. If you fail to accept this reality, you'll continue to burn at the feet of people like me.

  • Reply to

    Evercore

    by elsondie Feb 16, 2016 10:44 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 16, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    You were so confident last year, bashing the supposed ignorance of shorts, while extolling the virtues of Gogo's lousy tech. How's that brilliant insight of yours working out for you now, loser?

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 16, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    This is what I wrote last summer:

    "Obsolescence is fast approaching. Their Virgin business is dying. ALL of their business is dying. Airlines are figuring out how to do it better without Gogo.
    It's going to keep falling; low-teens by end of year, and single digits in 2016."

    I see a lot of you ignorant, arrogant longs stuck around for the inevitable crash. Good, you deserve it. Enjoy your suffering; I know I will.

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 16, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    Hey, losers, how's that GOGO investment working out for you?

  • Reply to

    Lousy margins, promising start to Q1

    by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 11, 2016 9:14 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 12, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    You're looking at all the wrong things. P/E-based valuation analysis and extrapolating a quarter out to a full year's potential performance are meaningless exercises. And that's especially the case for Pilgrim's, which operates in a volatile pricing environment with material D&A/CapEx dynamics. And it wasn't "terrible performance." Relative to the exogenous factors in play, it was outstanding performance, led by a quality management team. Those who can't do advanced valuation work with this company shouldn't bother with it.

  • Reply to

    Lousy margins, promising start to Q1

    by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 11, 2016 9:14 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 11, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    And to add to my comment, my attempts to increase my position, with orders as low as 19, were successful. Far too early to tell, of course, but it seems like the right decision.

    If you went through all of the earnings materials, and you know what to look for, you should find, as I have, that the risk-reward ratio is great at these levels, and especially below 20.

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 11, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    Prices and cutout values were really in the tank last quarter, and a lot of other negative issues in the business environment got in the way. The company was certainly tested, and it still managed to generate a fair amount of free cash flow.

    So far this quarter, trends in prices and feed look outstanding, as the former have risen aggressively, and inventories with respect to the latter are very high. If these trends persist, then Q1 2016 results have the potential to be nothing short of phenomenal.

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Feb 3, 2016 6:59 PM Flag

    Down 50% from the creation of this subject... and STILL overvalued.
    Expect the stock to be cut in half again this year, and fall down to the teens.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Dec 7, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Eventually, Richard Kinder might see prison time. After all, these huge dividends were issued as way for him to essentially steal money from the company. It doesn't matter if his 200+ million shares become worthless, because he'll have escaped with hundreds of millions of dollars in quarterly payouts. Quite a nice little moral hazard scheme he arranged for himself.

    Too bad Cramer and all of you couldn't identify this scheme, and join me on the right side of the trade.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Dec 4, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Wrong (as KMI longs typically are); I close out my short today - for a HUGE gain. I'm still an interested follower of the stock, but after riding this house of cards down from over 40 to under 20, I felt that it was time to officially enjoy the fruits of my analysis. The risk/reward is not as compelling as it used to be, but if KMI can sucker enough new money into bringing the price back up over 20, I may consider a new short.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Dec 4, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    KMI is off more than 55% since I started this subject. Richard Kinder continues to act like an irresponsible lunatic. Anything less than a 100% cut to the dividend will result in further pain to shareholders. The company is too distressed to distribute so much cash.

    Continue to hold this stock at your great peril.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Email to Iconix Investor Relations

    by deanmortensen Nov 7, 2015 11:28 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Nov 7, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I couldn't agree more. Iconix will be quickly (and justifiably) dismiss this letter.

    Applying the buyback authorization at this level would be nice under the right circumstances. However, the priority is securing a satisfactory exit of the 2.5% Convertible Notes. Such a current liability obligation for a company with Iconix's issues takes precedence over buybacks. If anything, given the present situation, there's a higher probability of dilution. While I suspect it won't come to that, and alternatives (e.g. current cash, future cash generation, asset sales, debt refinancing) should be able to absorb this payment, Iconix still must be conservative with how it deploys cash.

    The new leadership is sharp, and understands how to get out of this mess better than any of us. Leave them alone to do what's best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yikes...

    by h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 7:02 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    People should keep in mind that a large portion of the quarter-to-quarter operating expense are non-cash items, e.g. depreciation, amortization of debt/trademarks/intangibles, allowance for doubtful accounts, etc...

    With quick updates to my model, even if organically-driven forward-looking revenues run at $370 million annual ($92.5/quarter), free cash flow of ~$150 million is still possible. Zero-growth, but stable companies with Iconix's capital structure are typically worth no less than ~$1.5 billion, while Iconix is now at ~$400 million. Of course, there is SO much controversy and uncertainty with the company that few investors want to take a chance at even this price. To be fair, it's hard to blame them. Some institutional investors may also have a mandate to avoid companies in a restatement period, which may have exacerbated the after-hours sell-off.

    But I'm sticking with it; hit about 10,000 shares purchased in the after-hours session, and have gotten back to roughly equal weight in the portfolio. Someday I'll get this one right. :)

    And tomorrow, as a much-needed distraction, I'll golf, have a nice dinner, and then take my sister's nephews to go see The Peanuts Movie (86% on Rotten Tomatoes, by the way).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    Well hasn't this been the worst investment ever! Now I'm starting to wonder if Neil Cole may be criminally charged, much less civilly.

    With that said (written), these are accounting-based restatements, not cash-based. Yes, there appears to be aggressive revenue recognition, and receivables will be written down, but ex. the extraordinary items, there's still far too much free cash flow for this discount. And Cuneo is Cuneo, i.e. a proven honorable, sharp leader. I doubt Cole's team would've been this transparent and forthright.

    Am I putting my money where my mouth is/fingers are? Yeah. Been buying steadily after-hours. Budget of roughly 10,000 shares, which I'll probably hit.

    Besides the concern of future bad news pertaining to the restatement, there's a worry that Iconix will be acquired or taken private at a price well below what it deserves, precluding shareholders from realizing a fair value. So even if it's worth in the 20s when the smoke clears, an astute team may scoop it up during this period of distress, when it doesn't have to pay nearly that much It's happened before, and there's some potential for that happening here.

    To put it plainly: good grief.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ...the 3:30 PM interview on CNBC with Craig Schulz. Very positive, with a material mention of Iconix's involvement with the Peanuts brand, ownership and otherwise.

    The movie is getting excellent early reviews, and you can see licensing partnerships everywhere. As long as next week's earnings report isn't ugly, a continued move higher in the stock price should depend on the box office (so you longs better go see the movie!)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Oct 30, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    To reiterate, this morning's action is what should have happened yesterday. Hopefully, this example of investor intelligence will continue.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Oct 29, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Bids, bids, and more bids. The stock went the wrong way after earnings, and those who are digging deep into the numbers, and know where to look and how to interpret them, are recognizing this. I've added aggressively to bring my cost basis to just under 20.

    This is clearly for patient, astute investors only, but significant rewards will come to them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Sep 24, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    How's it going, GOGO longs? I hope you're adequately prepared for a single-digit stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Lampert, Tisch, Berkowitz & now LEON COOPERMAN

    by ctwv1 Sep 9, 2015 10:29 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Sep 10, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    You longs posted this before, but deleted it, perhaps due to my rebuttal, which I cut-and-pasted here (see below dotted line). Nowadays, having Cooperman on your side is, more often than not, a negative. Collectively, SHLD's institutional support is pathetic, and shouldn't exactly instill confidence.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Oh, you mean the same Leon Cooperman who was DOWN 3% in 2014?
    The same Leon Cooperman who overweighted shale producers while oil was tanking?
    The same Leon Cooperman watching key holding SunEdison implode under a mountain of debt?
    The same Leon Cooperman who's consistently been on the wrong side of distressed companies, like Caesars and SandRidge?

    Is that the same Leon Cooperman who's giving you comfort? Tsk tsk...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

KKD
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