The brokerage business was quite strong during Q1, but advertising was very weak and actually the biggest disappointment were the heavily touted "revenues from financial information and advisory business", down almost 50% qoq. Given that this business is actually expected to be the company's future growth driver, the numbers look heavily disappointing.
Nevertheless the company is currently valued just slight above cash levels and remains solidly profitable so the downside should be very limited at current price levels.
Actually it would need more than $610 mln in expected proceeds from the wind down of the company for shareholders to vote "no" here.
The current term sheet will provide them with up to $1.525 in recoveries or $30.5 mln dollar.
A "no" vote would instate the entire $579 mln senior lenders claim which needs to be recovered first before any payments can be made to the shareholders. Add the $30.5 mln shareholders would have gotten more easily under the current term sheet and you are at $610 mln before a "no" vote might turn into a profitable bet.
Actually the true number is $579 mln as it contains the "applicable premium" set forth in the original credit agreement in case the debt gets accelerated. The $510 mln number only applies when the shareholders vote in support of the deal - which they should and they will as otherwise their chances for a recovery would be virtually zero.
27% of the company's shares are actually held by the senior lenders anyway which should pretty much ensure a positive outcome of the vote as according to experience only a small minority of the equityholders will indeed cast their votes with rest simply doing nothing.