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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

harehau 266 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 10:23 AM Member since: Oct 10, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 12, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    PAGP up 10%ish, guessing same thing would happen for WMB, still think the stock doesn't reflect the long term value. Leadership is key.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 12, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    WMB needs to model PAA.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 12, 2016 9:00 AM Flag

    WMB needs leadership that PAGP/PAA has. Would guess they trade up today, if not, would be great buys. PAA is best oil assets in industry, WMB has best gas assets.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 12, 2016 8:13 AM Flag

    Key data point is 1.4% Treasury 10 y note. PAGP 8% plus yield after restructuring, easy decision for me.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 12, 2016 8:11 AM Flag

    Tracey, NRG has been struggling for a while, makes WMB balance sheet look pristine Probably a better comparison is PAGP/PAA, just announced a "simplification". Reduced PAGP div 11% and PAA 21%. I would guess that is the magnitude that WMB is looking at. They need to address the IDRs. They are different from PAGP in that PAGP didn't own PAA units. My guess is that coupled with asset sales, the WMB reduction in div will be less than the market is expecting. The activists have until this weekend to nominate board members, see if they carry through. Unless they have an operating partner, not sure they get much credence. Oil is up today, the whole sector should strengthen. The WPZ dist notice is due next week. WMB will need to move quickly to show strategy, plan, guidance.

  • Reply to

    How Many?

    by mizzou1966 Jul 10, 2016 10:19 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 11, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    REX will be an East to West pipe, the Marcellus/Utica will supply 25 bcfd/d add'l in next 10 years. The capacity goes to over 6 bcf/d. So you get a $2.50 div in 19, that's 10% yield on today's price with single digit growth. $2.50 div, assume high single digits growth, 4% yield, still get $60 plus price. And 50% of REX drop down potential. If you believe in the NE supplying most of gas growth, this is a great bet, and I wouldn't write off the Rockies, there are some interesting plays in the Powder River basin. NE gas could reach the West Coast.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 11, 2016 8:42 AM Flag

    Indicates 12x ebitda sale, coal to nat gas conversion for elect gen.

  • Reply to

    Harehau, email sent

    by pjhatbpi Jul 9, 2016 5:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 11, 2016 8:28 AM Flag

    KMI selling half of SE pipe to Southern. Going to listen to web cast but they show around 28bcf/d of increased demand for nat gas to '25, 24bcf/d comes from the Marcellus/Utica. Numbers from Wood Mackenzie, could be the case that everyone is using the same nos.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    Good name. Had a good friend who worked with him and had nothing but good things to say about him. An aside, I worked for Anadarko when it was part of Panhandle, way back when.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Thinking more about WMB's need for leadership, actually think the CFO would make a good CEO, he came to the co years ago after the Enron days. Warren actually wanted to keep him with the merged organization.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 2:47 PM Flag

    The media drives me up the wall, CNBC headline is "first zika related death" and the report concludes with, they can't conclusively say that zika caused the death.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    I haven't heard Brexit much today, no one even knows what effect it has. A media event. Oil rigs up 9 this week. Still think infrastructure cos are disconnecting from oil price.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    Agree, compare them to TEGP, mgt owns 17% of the GP and private equity owns 53%, they have been around of years and will continue to for the next several. Does make a difference. The current board does seem weak, the Chairman is a professor at SMU, was chief economist at EXXON, doesn't do much for me. Trying to think of good managements, PAGP has a stellar management and again they own a big chunk of the company.
    That would be a good marriage, best oil and best gas infrastructure cos merging. EPD's management is outstanding. PAGP/PAA will restructure, probably happens in a few weeks. PSX mgt is fairly good, they have low debt. Does seem both Armstrong and the board had their chance and couldn't pull it off. I suspect today that the activists will try again and could push WMB to merge with someone else. PAGP has great credibility and has never done anything stupid. Seems the timing would be right for PAGP, WMB to combine.

  • Reply to

    ann meeting

    by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    Interesting that ETE targets are coming in at $20 per unit. At 1.87, $37 WMB deal value. If the Board had agreed to elim the cash portion, this deal could have been done and it would have been a great combo of assets, but the MLP form and Warren would have been there. I don't think the activists get much traction unless they partner with another co, remote prob but interesting to consider.

  • harehau by harehau Jul 8, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    On July 8, 2016, The Williams Companies, Inc. (the "Company") announced that Board of Directors (the
    Not too far away. Could be interesting, would bet they try to take over the Board, I wouldn't vote for them but it could prop up the stock. Couple with strategy and guidance, WMB needs to get in front of the activists. And activists need to propose a stellar Chair to get any notice. Either way, guessing it puts a floor under the stock. And guidance, Armstrong needs to present a yield story, imo. I think they can do it.
    "Board") of the Company has determined that the Company's 2016 annual meeting of stockholders shall be held on November 23, 2016 (the "Annual Meeting"). The Company's stockholders of record at the close of busi
    ness on October 7, 2016 will be entitled to notice of the Annual Meeting and to vote on matters to be considered at the meeting.

    Timely notice of business to be brought before the Annual Meeting (including nominations for election to the Board) other than through a stockholder proposal submitted pursuant to Rule 14a-8 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, must be received by the Corporate Secretary of the Company at the address set forth below by the close of business on July 18, 2016. Any such submission must meet the requirements set forth in the Company's By-Laws.

    Because the date of the Annual Meeting is more than 30 days from the date of the anniversary of the previous year's annual meeting of stockholders, the Company has set a new deadline for its receipt of stockholder proposals submitted pursuant to Rule 14a-8. In order for a stockholder to timely submit any such proposal for inclusion in the Company's proxy statement for the Annual Meeting, the proposal must be received by the Corporate Secretary of the Company at the address set forth below by the close of business on August 7,

  • harehau by harehau Jul 7, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    Felt like the MLPs disconnected from oil price. EPD, GEL announced increases in dist, TEGP yesterday. Investors will see that the sector is not on verge of collapse and 10 yr T note at 1.4%.

  • harehau harehau Jul 7, 2016 9:05 AM Flag

    Don't count on it. Seems WMB waiving the opinion was the material one. Seems ETE would have benefitted from it becoming a taxable deal, step up in basis of assets. So, ETE, imo, had nothing to lose by waiving the tax opinion but it was in the contract and they could do it. I don't think WMB gets anything out of suit but no a lawyer.

  • Reply to

    When do we file suit v ETE

    by metasea Jul 6, 2016 3:31 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 6, 2016 7:53 PM Flag

    Agree, Warren trashed it and the board did nothing but pushed the merger. I think it is undervalued, the statement that the div would be cut, maybe materially, that was terrible but from a board that wanted the deal done. You all are probably getting tired of my optimism but I do think that it will recover, faster than expected. Still betting on the quality of the assets. In the meantime, look at TEGP, they announced today a 17% increase in the div from the last quarter, should be able to do double digit increases for the next couple of years. They have a Transco like pipeline from NE to WY, a great oil pipe from WY to Cushing.

  • Reply to

    When do we file suit v ETE

    by metasea Jul 6, 2016 3:31 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 6, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    Warren got lucky, no one mentioned the tax problem when ETE was single digits, fairly clear that $7 in stock and $8 cash wouldn't work. The ETE head of tax figured out the structure of the deal months after it was finalized and he called Latham, who hadn't seen a problem up to then. All very bizarre, I'd fire the tax guy but now he has employment for life for his incompetence. Welch was booted. I'm relieved ETE found a way out, the WMB board was set on closing a deal which was not good for WMB holders, because the activists wanted it done, and the rest of the board was clueless, chairman included. Even more bizarre. In the end, imo, great assets will trump mediocre leadership from the board. WMB will seem a great buy at $20 a couple of years from now. As the Rystad report indicated, the US has biggest oil reserves on the globe and the cheapest nat gas with a surplus of supply for LNG exporting, most coming from the NE. That's going to take infrastructure growth for years. WMB is better off without ETE.

  • Reply to

    2Q2016 Distribution Announcement

    by mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 8:25 AM
    harehau harehau Jul 6, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    A gift today at $23..

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