I was actually thinking of an actual analyst to ask this question about shorts as 19+ million is significant and the machinations that have occurred to the stock should be of concern to all........including analysts and institutions. This has become a big enough issue to be discussed.
Anyone using the MB any longer to discuss
+ Conference Call transcript from Seeking Alpha
+ Updated Analyst Estimates on Yahoo's TNK page
A few thoughts:
+ Wu and HIMX Mgmt are very ethical and news has not leaked in the past
+ There are 19 million plus shorts mostly from the $8 to $9 levels which have to be worried about a good preannouncement. I think they are trying to spread some fear here and cover some of these before the conference call on Thursday.
+ 2Q 2016 pre-announce PR states HIMX will show a revenue of $201.1 million which is an increase of 18% over 2Q2015 and EPS of $0.115 which is more than double the $0.05 from 2Q 2015
+ Wu stated in the pre-announcement that things are looking good in the second half of 2016. So, 3Q 2016 guidance should compare well to 3Q 2015 which was $165.5 million and $0.01 EPS
+ Volume has dried up over the past hour or so as there are buy orders. If a seller wants out, there are buyers. But, there are fewer sellers with limit orders where the shorts can take this down and scoop up those limit order sells.
+ HIMX is not moving up at the present as the buyers sit and bait the shorters to try and take this down so their orders are filled at this lower price
But, someone needs to ask the Wu's about this high level of shorts and the short attacks as it can keep some funds from wanting to buy shares of a company whose stock is 'manipulated' by shorts.
We are all feeling your pain......but a few corrections to your last two posts:
+ Shares usually open down the amount of the dividend.......on the ex-dividend date which was 2 weeks ago. The payment date is really not relevant for the share price other than some dividend reinvestment buying.
+ I posted over a week ago that the short interest as of 15-July 2016 was over 19 million shares. You might have missed that due to the Yahoo MB issues. But, you can go to the NSADAQ site and see the short volume and history
All we shareholder can hope is that HIMX gets fairly valued when they report earnings and guide next Thursday.
Huge beat on revenue (25% year over year increase on more tankers) and a nice penny beat on earnings.
Dividend is at 30% of earnings or $0.06/share as they pay down debt.
I will be buying more TNK as what is not to like about shares selling for under $3 and earns $0.20 in the quarter (would be undervalued if that is what they earned in a year!!!). And, it pays over a 8%/year dividend.
Agree Jar, that Wu should release an update today and specifically mention that he knows the shares are under attack and just wants the shareholders to have full news of how HIMX is doing. HIMX Mgmt can still hold the CC when they scheduled.......but it would be good for Wu to preannounce again today and perhaps give their 3Q 2016 outlook.
But, I do want Wu to specifically mention they know their shares are under attack and will look for ways to mitigate this. He doesn't have to be specific although he should say they will put out more business updates as that could be enough to scale them.
But, the shorts can't win if:
+ People did not sell their shares on the takedowns essentially rewarding the shorts with low priced shares
+ People did not place sell stops as targets to get hit
+ People/Funds/Institutions did not get scared away (or just stay away) when these attacks come. These could well be great buying opportunities
I agree that it might be too early to sell........but it is never too early to think about selling as selling is the next step after buying. But, I would be fine in holding for years as this works its way up. But, once you buy, you should always be thinking about the market value and when to sell.
It is also wise to think about how to sell.......and I generally like to sell covered calls. But, I will wait and watch the chart before selling calls so that I get a lot of value out of this good pick/buy.
I would imagine they are what the analysts expect on the Yahoo Analyst Estimates tab. With KOPN revenues expected to be lower year over year, I sold my shares a while back at $2.42.......and glad I did now that I see how the market reacted to these earnings.
I bought some Calls last Friday thinking GNW couldn't go down much further.......after rallying to $4 after 1Q 2016 earnings and then getting taken down.
I also noticed that the shorts had been covering.........as it is not likely a company voluntarily buying back their bonds was gong to go bankrupt in the short term.
Good luck to all who bought low......and to those who held on during the take down. The rough ride may not be completely over......but any rough ride should be mostly upwards now.
We will soon need to take what we get in the CC and figure out what GNW is worth and at what price to sell.
TAINAN, Taiwan, July 05, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) (“Himax” or “Company”), a leading supplier and fabless manufacturer of display drivers and other semiconductor products, today preannounced preliminary unaudited financial results for the three months ended June 30th, 2016. The second quarter revenues and gross margin met at high end of its guidance while EPS exceeded the guidance issued by the Company on May 12, 2016.
Revenues were $201.1 million, an increase of 11.5% sequentially versus guidance of up 7.5% to 12.5% and an increase of 18.8% year-over-year. Revenue increases in the quarter were attributed to strong sales in the Company’s small and medium-sized driver business. Smartphone driver ICs experienced phenomenal growth due to Chinese end brand customers gaining share from new model launches.
Gross Margin was 26.1% versus guidance of around 26%. Gross margin decreased 10 basis points sequentially and increased 230 basis points from the same quarter last year. More favorable product mix among SMDDIC products and higher-than-expected engineering fees from AR/VR project engagements enhanced the Company's gross margin.
GAAP Earnings per Diluted ADS was 11.5 cents, exceeding the Company’s guided range of 8.5 to 10.5 cents. GAAP diluted earnings per ADS increased 51.3% sequentially and increased 125.5% from the same period last year.
3 month chart looks interesting. One can find a pennant there which I think could turn out bullish.
I think the shorts were also trying to take the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA but earnings will be here soon and make this future of HIMX based more on guidance.
There will be a lot of products discussed with release dates at this event.
Here is one article: roadtovrDOTcom/the-new-gear-vr-bigger-fov-will-probably-look-like-this/?utm_source=Road+to+VR+Daily+News+Roundup&utm_campaign=96b0dbd7ff-RtoVR_RSS_Daily_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e2e394ad33-96b0dbd7ff-168117997
Mostly agree but HIMX dates would be mostly predictable even if they did not give advance notice. I did like how Mgmt surprised them and ended a viscous takedown as:
+ Thurs 6/30 went from $9.06 to $8.28 on 12.8 million shares
+ Friday 7/1 took it further down to $7.48 on 16.8 million shares
+ Sat/Sun/Mon was the long 4th of July weekend
+ Monday 7/5 before the market opens, HIMX Mgmt preannouncing great revenue, EPS and margins moving the share up $0.54 to $8.02 on over 7 million shares
+ Tuesday a fight between a longs and shorts with HIMX only down to $7.92 on 6.2 million shares
+ We'd/Thur/Fri price moves slowly back up on mostly normal volumes
+ Mon 7/11 went up to $8.51
+ Tues 7/12 HIMX goes to $9.00 on 5.4 million shares
So, the preannoucement really surprised the shorts as HIMX ended up strong in the fist half of July as over 3 million additional shares were shorted (probably most all on 7/1). And, I have to think the two analyst affirmations helped and could have been instigated by HIMX (or companies defending their own customers).
I doubt there was much covering right after 7/15 and before the $0.13 dividend.
So, the two things that will impact HIMX near term share price are::
+ 3Q guidance to maintain the share price around these levels and up to perhaps $10 as they should guide to over $0.10 which will compare/replace a 3Q 2015 of $0.01. This will show good current strength
+ Any longer term comments on new customers for existing products, new products in AR/VR and/or LCOS and WLO fab plant and we can then take off as the shorts will have to cover
I imagine the shorts are waiting on the seasonal Aug/Sept/Oct market correction.....and, with reasonable guidance, the shorts will be covering on any downturn which could moderate HIMX share price from correcting hard when the overall market corrects.
My take is that the shorts recognize they are in trouble and keep shorting to keep the price in the current range hoping for a market correction or something. After all, there seems to be enough buyers of the extra 2 - 3 million shares each two weeks that are added via shorting.
So, the question is whether HIMX disappoints and/or goes down with a larger market correction.
My take is that:
+ HIMX will not disappoint as they rarely do and we already have a preannouncement of a beat (which has now become the expectation)........but HIMX Mgmt did say the last half of the year looked good
+ HIMX AR products have to be getting closer to the market........and HIMX should see orders and revenue a quarter before they are released as they sell to the product manufacturer/assemblers
+ HIMX should see some benefit from the VR products already being sold in the form of display drivers, timing controllers, etc. although we don't really know which ones (but perhaps anything using a Samsung OLED display???)
+ The market may correct as it did in Aug/Sept 2015 and Oct 2014..........but many have been preparing for this so I think it may be somewhat muted. And, quite a few stocks reported decent revenue and EPS for the 1.2% annual GDP growth rate reported late last week (although drawdown in inventories muted the figure somewhat)
+ There is much money on the sidelines which wants to come into the market on any downturn/correction
The only negative I see is the POTUS as neither candidate is market friendly. Hillary has been pulled so far left that she can't be seen as helping Wall Street...........while Donald is a wild card and would have to do something on world trade pacts to honor his rhetoric.
I am still watching this stock........but glad that I decided on MSCC and they reported good earnings and gave a good outlook. Actually, they were mostly in line with estimates.....but their valuation is lower and they basically reaffirmed growth is fine.
I am watching the chart here for stabilization as the valuations on MLNX are also lower.
What do y'all know/think of IDTI who reports early this coming week. They seem to have reasonable growth and valuation and have based nicely.
Looks like there was active buying in HIMX shortly after the close......and at a higher price than the close. This must be either more short covering.........or MM's balancing their books after a hard day of trading back and forth to control the share price.
Time. Price. Share Volume
16:33 $ 8.96 Low 9,486
16:18 $ 8.9715 High 85,424
Thanks for the article.......and I see VR being huge for real estate sales as it would save the buyer, seller and agent much time, effort and cost as the prospective buyer can view the homes in VR and then only visit those that they have an interest in. The should also be very useful in teaching and training.......until AR comes along strong.
Sorry as I tried to give you a thumbs up but 'fat fingered' the screen and mistakenly hit the thumbs down on my iPad.
What are the chances that Yahoo is trying to sabotage (drive away viewers) now that Yahoo has been sold to Verizon? These user unfriendly changes on the Finance MB's sure seem like they are.
I read where Verizon also got Yahoo's office in Silicon Valley which is ~! Million square feet and valued at $500 million......or around 10% of the deal value. Interesting.
Facebook just below away estimates on revenue and earnings.
Do, why does someone buy nearly 35,000 shares just 5 minutes after the close.........paying nearly 2 cents above the close? I suspect this is due to either MM games (rebalancing books after selling back and forth) or shorts covering.
Time. Share Price. Volume
16:05 $ 8.9885 High 34,891
While I mostly agree about the big shorts monitoring the construction site for activity, the shorts could be making the same mistake longs have made........valuing HIMX primarily on LCoS and not on the very good base business. At the current price, HIMX is selling at less than 20 times 2017 EPS which will be up over 25% from 2016 making the forward P/E very reasonable.
The things that should make the shorts nervous are:
+ A good 2Q 2016 with a preannounced $201.1 million in revenue and $0.115 EPS which are up over 18% and 100% respectively from 2Q 2015
+ Probable good 3Q guidance (from language in the preannouncement PR) which has easy comparisons with 3Q 2015 of $165.6 million and $0.01 EPS
+ Engineering fees to HIMX associated with AR/VR customers being one reason for the higher revenues
+ Mgmt being proactive/protective of share price as they did preannounce and perhaps got a few analysts to reaffirm a positive outlook and higher target prices
+ AR/VR here and coming......and sentiment now strongly positive that these are not fads as studies have shown great actual financial savings in real estate (virtually review homes/property and only drive to ones which interest you), warehouse fulfillment and assembly lines, education, etc. which makes AR/VR a cost savings device and not a toy as thought previously
+ More and more products being released and progressing to release........so time is now on HIMX's side
+ HIMX could move just on news of when they will start construction........or just on news that they are able to make more LCoS and WLO's from the current fab plant
But, I do want to hear news about the plant and I don't doubt it has a lot to do with HIMX's share price. But, for one, I think time is more on the shareholder's side now as the base business is doing well and construction has to be getting closer and closer.
Notionally, I think the shorts are working hard to keep the price where it is as they lost ground in 1H July.