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AbbVie Inc. Message Board

hofno2003 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 23, 2016 3:19 AM Member since: Jul 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    If approved, what is your exit price?

    by mike59sc Sep 23, 2016 2:03 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Sep 23, 2016 3:19 AM Flag

    I think my expectations depend on the ADF label of Remoxy. If PTIE gets a label to deter all three main routes of abuse (oral, injection, snorting) - then the Remoxy value proposition is superior to most other approved ADFs and my expectation for the market potential is somewhere at $300+ million (15+% of ER opioid market). This way I expect and derive a fair company value for a buyout of 3 x $300+ million = $900+ million = $900 million / 46 million shares = $20+ per share.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jim FIckenScher resigning

    by foogie88 Aug 11, 2016 7:24 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Aug 12, 2016 3:07 AM Flag

    Why to leave a company? Perhaps because a buyout is prepared behind the curtain.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EVOKE ON THE STAMPEDE

    by michaelrodman722 Jul 28, 2016 9:11 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 28, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    Would be good if we had a clue about the driving forces for this strong upmove.
    hofno

  • Reply to

    • How to get the old message board format back:

    by hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 11:18 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 25, 2016 2:15 AM Flag

    I sold CTSO in order to shift the money to EDT.TO - because EDT.TO has an earlier key milestone concerning a final pivotal phase 3 bacterial induced sepsis trial. If my strategy works (and, yes, there is some risk that EDT.TO will fail to prove a survival benefit with it's device) - then I will again divest EDT.TO and invest the money in CTSO for the long run. I am a full believer in CTSO's technology - and the weekly case reports clearly demonstrate that CTSO's device will provide an outstanding survival benefit - but we need a controled pivotal study with an survival adavante endpoint in order to get a final US approval. Nevertheless the revenue at CTSO will continue to climb outside US ......
    hofno

  • Reply to

    Help!

    by dorseye Jul 21, 2016 2:33 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 21, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    PTIE is the better play than DRRX concerning Remoxy. DRRX royalties from Remoxy will help to improve the earnings situation at DRRX - but it will not make DRRX profitable. Thats totally different with PTIE - which is - IMHO - a buyout target after Remoxy approval. It is a very lean company with a low cost base - and a suitor with a sales force ready to go would get the maximum contribution to its bottom line. If we look at $150-$200 million revenue potential for Remoxy we should derive a buyout price of 3 x 150 - 3 x $200 million = $450 up to $600 million. At 50 million shares outstanding a fair buyout price would therefore be $9 upt to $12 and I think we will see this price tag soon after approval.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    EDTXF (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, pivotal 28 day survival data July 2016)
    LPCN (first testosterone pill, preterm birth pill)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data Q42016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, final phase III data Q4 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, generic epi pen)
    SYN (first pill for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Board is dead

    by wallstreetwillie Jul 18, 2016 8:44 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 19, 2016 7:00 AM Flag

    It is strange either way. We should know which jobs have been eliminated. SG&A can easily be reduced without an impairment of drug development. Best possible read: The board decided to prepare the co for an outright sell in order to unlock shareholder value, but that is pure speculation .....
    hofno

  • Reply to

    Will send asap been away from computer

    by drfeelmarvelous Jul 16, 2016 11:51 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 17, 2016 6:35 AM Flag

    Sorry for beeing late. hofno2003a@yahoo.com.
    Thanks for your contributions and seasoned reasoning.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remoxy play PTIE vs. DRRX

    by iwontfollowyouradvice Jul 12, 2016 12:13 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 15, 2016 2:34 AM Flag

    Remoxy has a highly viscous formulation (like a gummy bear) and an ER release mechanism. For sure - when you use an ER formulation you can throw in a larger amount of pills - but you will not get a fast spike - instead a very long lasting high (8+ hours) due to the ER mechanism - and this is not the goal of typical recreational abusers which seek a fast onset of action with a more limited duration.

    I don't believe that you will see an entry point below $2 - but nothing is certain and the general market conditions can change and therefore provide outstanding opportunities.

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 15, 2016 2:19 AM Flag

    Hi Bill,
    there is no vote for Remoxy/PTIE. The voting is an instrument of an Adcom (advisory commitee meeting - an FDA external expert meeting organized by FDA) - but the FDA did not see the need for an Adcom meeting/voting for Remoxy. Therefore the FDA cancelled the the already scheduled Adcom. 09-25 is the PDUFA date - the target date for the FDA decision on the NDA.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When is the CRL being addressed?

    by gi197845 Jul 13, 2016 6:54 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    How true. hofno

  • Reply to

    How to get the old MB format back:

    by hofno2003 Jul 13, 2016 5:20 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    Yes, this works too. Thanks. hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Use first the following internet adress - subsequently you can select a Ticker of your choice and you will have all watchlists and MB of the old format. Of course you can instantly substitute EVOK by any symbol .... set a book mark ....

    http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/mb/EVOK/

    Of course you can use this internet-adress with every ticker of your choice instead of EVOK. Sometimes you have to click more often than once to get the old format .... weird anyway ...

    Btw: will soon again enter a new position in CTSO .........

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    EVOK (nasal metoclopramide for diabetic gastroparesis, phase III data July 2016)
    EDTXF (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, pivotal 28 day survival data July 2016)
    LPCN (first testosterone pill, preterm birth pill)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data Q42016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data mid July 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, generic epi pen)
    SYN (first pill for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remoxy play PTIE vs. DRRX

    by iwontfollowyouradvice Jul 12, 2016 12:13 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    Hi William,
    until now I am not on IHUB. But when we are terminally forced to leave Yahoo I think that I will switch to IHUB - and I will try to keep my name hofno2003 over there - no matter of the new plattform I finally decide to use.

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remoxy play PTIE vs. DRRX

    by iwontfollowyouradvice Jul 12, 2016 12:13 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    You are right. The FDA encourages companies to develop abuse deterrent formulations (ADFs) of opioid pain drugs. Once there are enough products on the market I am sure it will pull Purdue's Oxy. There have been 2 new approvals in the past months (Teva, Pfizer) - but not all have the same claims when it comes to its ADF qualities. I think Remoxy is potentially a best in class ADF, but however the final label is defined - a market share of 10-15% is enough to support my math concerning the fair share price between 9 and $12.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Use first the following internet link - subsequently you can select a ticker of your choice and you will have all watchlists and MB of the old format. Of course you can instantly substitute EVOK by any other symbol ....and of course you should set a bookmark in your browser ....

    http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/mb/EVOK/

    Perhaps you have to activate this link more than once, but when you get the old MB you can switch from one board to all other boards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remoxy play PTIE vs. DRRX

    by iwontfollowyouradvice Jul 12, 2016 12:13 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    Hi William, thanks for your nice words. I don't know when we are really forced to switch to another board - perhaps we will meet us at IHUB when Yahoo indeed kills this board format, but meanwhile there is a workaround to have access to this board format whenever Yahoo tries to provide you the new finance format which is really a mess.

    • How to get the old message board format back:
    Use first the following internet link - subsequently you can select a ticker of your choice and you will have all watchlists and MB of the old format. Of course you can instantly substitute EVOK by any other symbol ....and of course you should set a bookmark in your browser ....

    http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/mb/EVOK/

    Perhaps you have to activiate this link more than once, but when you get the old MB you can switch from one board to all other boards.

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When is the CRL being addressed?

    by gi197845 Jul 13, 2016 6:54 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 9:20 AM Flag

    I think it would be wise - before you buy more - to wait until LPCN gets it's FDA meeting within the next weeks (that is what I do). We really can not know how much rework will be necessary to satisfy FDA's questions, this could be really a minor job when all data are existing and available - but the outcome could also be a small new trial in order to establish/proof the Tlando titration concept.

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Use first the following internet link - subsequently you can select a ticker of your choice and you will have all watchlists and MB of the old format. Of course you can instantly substitute EVOK by any other symbol ....and of course you should set a bookmark in your browser ....

    http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/mb/EVOK/

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • How to get the old MB format back:

    Use first the following internet adress - subsequently you can select a symbol of your choice and you will have all watchlists and MB of the old format. Of course you can instantly substitute EVOK by any symbol ....

    http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/mb/EVOK/

    Of course you can use this internet-adress with every ticker of your choice instead of EVOK.

    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    • EVOK: price target after approval: $30 - $50

    by hofno2003 Jul 8, 2016 1:31 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jul 14, 2016 2:57 AM Flag

    With the given uptrend of our share price it is reasonable to think that we see $20 after good phase III data this month and a further jump to $30 after final FDA approval (or before). There is an urgent need in special gastroparesis patient subgroups for this delivery route of metoclopramide - so the FDA could be motivated to keep the review time short ... but we will know this soon. First we need our (hopefully) good phase 3 data the next days ahead ....

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    EVOK (nasal metoclopramide for diabetic gastroparesis, phase III data July 2016)
    EDTXF (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, pivotal 28 day survival data July 2016)
    LPCN (first testosterone pill, preterm birth pill)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data Q42016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data mid July 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, generic epi pen)
    SYN (first pill for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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