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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

holding38 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 6, 2016 7:39 PM Member since: Jun 22, 2009
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  • for calling a downside target "NEAR 22.50-60." The stock bottomed at 22.45 today before rebounding to close at 22.96. After a brutal few days of sell-off on high volume, have we seen a selling climax? The long-term investment case for BX remains intact, but there is no rule requiring holders to retain their shares or think long term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jun 29, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    PT: Time to take profits and go long. BX hit the bottom of its trading range over the last six months and has rebounded sharply; it's time to lock in your profits. There's a (modified) Wall Street saying:"The trend is your friend--until it comes to an end." It's too early to say the upside break-out (over 30) will occur any time soon. I believe that will happen if BX meets analyst targets for economic net income and raises its quarterly distribution to 50 cents or more. That should come by October if it doesn't happen next month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 by holding38 Jun 27, 2016 2:13 PM Flag

    At about 10 times forward earnings and with a dividend yield likely to be over 8% and trend higher over time, BX under 25 is a gift, even if the panic lasts somewhat longer. Part of the downward pressure reflects forced selling by ETFs in the financial sector; that is, it is not BX specific.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Favorable outlook for distributions

    by holding38 Jun 23, 2016 4:30 PM
    holding38 holding38 Jun 24, 2016 7:41 PM Flag

    Hey guys, it's not the end of the world. It's true that if market disarray continues, exits will become more difficult, reducing distributions. But not all sales will be eliminated; there is no reason for the sale of the hotel company to a Chinese insurer to be disrupted,for example. At the same time, if the market turmoil continues, the roughly $80 billion of dry powder that BX has can be quickly put to work, increasing management fees and laying the groundwork for future sales and distributions.

    Brexit is complex. Although the dollar will become more expensive relative to other currencies--especially the pound and the euro--the U.S. has become relatively more attractive for foreign investment compared to Europe and the UK. Also, the market disruption will surely slow the Fed's hand in raising interest rates. If proper fiscal policies are followed in the US--admittedly a big if--the country can borrow at 1 or 2% to finally fix its crumbling infrastructure. The refusal of Congress to do so is akin to calling for an end to all mortgages; spending on houses and infrastructure yields benefits for 50 years or more, so it is appropriate to pay for them over an extended period. My point is simply that the economic outlook for the US is for the most part in our own hands and not dependent on the vote in the UK.

    Hey, BX is back under 25--a Christmas gift in June!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I've been assuming that distributions would average 50 cents per share, but fluctuate widely between 20 cents and 80 cents, with an upward bias over time (based largely on the funds available for investment, the ongoing huge influx of funds into BX, the sterling record of BX, and the company's imaginative business plans). Indeed, the last distribution was only 28 cents and that is probably one of the factors holding down the stock price.

    Based on the consensus view of the analysts following the stock, however, the rising profits expected for the remainder of this year and next should translate into higher distributions. For the remaining three quarters for this year, the profits are estimated at 64, 67 and 74 cents. For next year, the profits are estimated to be over $3 per share (unit). This suggests that the next two distributions this year should average at least 50 cents, and starting with the December quarter through the December quarter next year the 5 distributions should average at least 60 cents. If the analysts are right, the distributions should increase nicely and help to support the stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jun 22, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    In the last three months, BX has found support around 25. If the price should dip below 25 briefly, it will be a gift that may not be repeated.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jun 8, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    Thank you for your kind comment PT. You know much more about technical analysis than I do, but as I understand it, a double top can only be confirmed in retrospect. If the S&P declines significantly from its current level then we can indeed verify a double top. If, however, it continues its move above 2100, then that will prove to have been a break-out point. I have often seen people shout that a stock is in a head and shoulders formation before it pierces the neckline on its asserted way down, when the "neckline" proves to be merely a basing point for a strong move upwards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jun 8, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    PT: You know better than that. At one point you correctly said that BX was displaying lower lows and lower highs; that it was clearly in a downtrend. At that time you were right. Since January, however, BX has clearly been in a trading range, moving sideways. It will eventually break out on the upside or downside; there is no technical basis for saying that it cannot break out to the upside, as you mistakenly assert. It is at times like these that fundamental analysis s particularly helpful. With an outlook for strongly increasing earnings and distributions over the next year and a half, the odds strongly favor a breakout above 28 and 30. I believe that will happen fairly soon. I have recently added to my holdings. If I am wrong, at worst I will have to wait a little while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • BX is dramatically undervalued. According to Yahoo, analysts have 5 strong buys, 8 buys, 4 holds and 0 underperform and sell. The median target is $34. The Q2 and Q3 EPS estimates are $0.64 vs. $0.43 and $0.67 vs. -$0.35. EPS estimates for 2016 and 2017 are $2.37 vs. $1.82 and $3.20 vs. $2.37. Distributions per share should increase strongly from last quarter's $0.28, probably the low point for this cycle.

    From 2015 to 2018, Morgan Stanley sees EPS of $1.81, $1.28, $2.80 and $4.12, while dividends per share move from $2.73 in 2015 to $1.81 in 2016, $2.30 in 2017 and $2.63 in 2018. This means MS expects dividends per share to average $0.51 over the remaining three quarters this year.

    Yahoo calculates a current PE of 11.05, 5 year EPS growth at 23.9% per year, and a PEG ratio of 0.46. Add to this the fact that Blackstone is best in class among alternative asset managers, now has well over $300 billion under management, and is the prime beneficiary of consolidation among alternative asset managers, with new funds flooding in (in recognition of its clearly superior performance). This means that an increasing proportion of its dividend is from the 2% management fee rather than the cyclically variable 20% management fee. The stock is currently basing after short term traders reacted to the cyclical downturn, and the outlook is for a sharp move up at any time. What's not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 May 10, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Penthouse, it seems you do not have a good grasp of your investment. The "dividend" of Blackstone is actually a limited partnership distribution of the lion's share of the company's cash flow. This will vary sharply from quarter to quarter depending on the level of realizations (sales). BX buys when prices are low, sells when assets have been restored/improved and prices are high. BX does not influence the price level (the Fed does). BX could sell when prices are low, but that would destroy its profitability and probably the company itself. If it does not follow such a foolish path, then the distributions will fluctuate over a wide range (I expect them at present to vary between 20 and 80 cents per quarter, trending higher over time). If you cannot live with that, then consider another, more traditional stock such as Johnson and Johnson--or even Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT). Disclosure: I hold both BX and BXMT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

27.68+0.26(+0.95%)Jul 25 4:01 PMEDT