I don't think Bill is going anywhere.....and I kept adding some KTCC.....adding here and at NAII today....added some to Tab's VTSI yesterday. All three had strong reports and it seems their businesses are headed north.....IMO, the price will follow whether it follows on any given day or not. IMO, Hopeful
I agree to a point. And your post is well taken. I have no position here so I'll exit the conversation as the emotions are obviously higher than a willingness to discuss valuation. Your central point is key to how the stock price goes from here, though. My point, as you clearly understand by your words, is to say that the financial leverage situation is heavy per the balance sheet where the composition of assets reveals a probable strain to service such high debt. I taught Intermediate Accounting for years and so I taught GAAP for goodwill and the identifiable intangibles (patents, copyrights, etc.). For years, goodwill was called the unidentifiable intangible asset and not separated on the balance sheet from other intangibles as is done today.
Goodwill does not arise from overpaying but from paying more than the fair value of the "identifiable net assets" on the balance sheet. Goodwill only gets recorded by an "acquiring company." The acquired company that developed the goodwill (special expertise, client base, etc.) does not book the goodwill asset but expenses the development costs of that goodwill per GAAP rules. Thus, the goodwill is missing from the acquired's balance sheet and the acquiring company determines a fair value of that missing goodwill and pays that much....then books the goodwill on its balance sheet. That's how it works.....so the purchase price paid for any company represents the fair value (reached by both parties)...and includes no "overpayment."
This said, you are right, friend about VRX. It appears that the company has got itself on a hamster treadmill where it needs to keep purchasing a new pipeline to keep the earnings coming....so the debt can be serviced.....looks like it's starting to pyramid to me. JMO. Hopeful...
P.S. Goodwill is not amortized anymore. It used to be.....it remains on the balance sheet unless it it deemed "impaired" and then it is written down or off. IMO, you may see VRX start making such adjustments.
I'll cut you some slack....you didn't have to say you quit reading; That's obvious. Don't put up walls and read it again; I said "ON PAPER." I mean by "paper" a reference to the balance sheet which indeed shows negative tangible equity of 35 billion. A stock security is an equity security. Look it up...you should know that if you hold stocks. The balance sheet says this company's worth is tied up in goodwill and intangibles. If you factor those out, the accounting value is extremely negative. Yes, the stock market has the price at 29.....it was a ton higher than that too not long back. Was the market also correct then? If you believe it's worth 29 or 50 or 100, at least be able to understand why and ignoring a major financial statement like the balance sheet is not very sensible, pal. IMO, Hopeful
I'm not long or short and have not been posting here before.....have just followed VRX some since it hit the limelight a while ago.....one can thumbs down what I wrote but it's there in plain sight if you bother to read the balance sheet for yourself. In fact, the balance sheet tells a story of its own. I'm a retired accounting professor and retired CPA. The balance sheet reflects a situation where a ton of debt has been amassed over time by acquiring other entities (leading to an asset base almost entirely intangible-based). So, maybe the company has indeed put up some big cash numbers from operations over recent years. But that money does not look like it did anything but get spent on trouble for owners of the company.....in fact a bunch of intangible (thin air) encumbered by a boatload of debt.
I just posted something...will try again. VRX has no value whatsoever. Everyone is aptly talking of lack of liquidity an excessive debt. What is being disregarded is the vast majority of assets on balance sheet are goodwill and intangibles.....over 41 billion in these assets of the 49 billion total assets (from Dec. 31, 2015's balance sheet). You can't pay the bills with these assets. When you factor them out, the book value of the company is a negative 35 billion, or minus $100 per common share. On paper, then, the company is toast, IMO.
Last year on May 27, CNAT announced its participation in 3 investor conferences scheduled for the next month (June). My speculation is that we'll be hearing, in the next week or two, about some conferences upcoming. Investors, vs. day-trading types, obviously want CNAT to push its emricasan forward to fruition.....so I hope we do hear about some conferences coming along. The stock is so durn cheap too that the buzz of conferences itself will likely act as some rocket fuel for speculators. CNAT management has a plan in place for raising money from the strength of leverage it has due to emricasan, IMO. I'm looking forward to this summer with this stock.
....kept adding literally right into the close as I was the last trade at 12.76.....got considerably more very late at about 12.70.
It's remarkable to me to be able to do so. Yes, yes, I know all about Borg selling and having a considerable position still which he may want to diminish yet more in the future as his windows open for that.....but it seems to me the facts of NAII performance are overwhelming positive to the degree that Borg is nothing but an opportunity to gain shares cheaper than otherwise but not a driving concern or threat for one's preoccupation. Doing so, IMO, is taking the eye off the proverbial ball.
Given this latest .46 eps quarter, .31 diluted derived from continuing operations, the company is trading at about a 10 P/E using .31 to annualize a useful figure for calculation purposes. Yet the company is growing faster than any weed you'll find in your garden. International revenue growth reported was well over 100% and the international sales have now well surpassed the domestic sales.....even domestic sales showed not-too-shabby growth of its own in the double digits. There has also been tremendous margin expansion with the revenue increase.
Add to all this an expansion that can enable greater sales, especially overseas (why would NAII do this expansion unless it believed it needed additional revenue-generating capacity??).
So, I see a company with a ton of cash, zero debt, strong access to additional capital, strong working capital, super strong growth and trading around an assumed P/E of 10. So, Borg makes a stock that should support a 20 P/E and easily higher worth a 10 P/E. My disagreement with that notion explains why I'm taking advantage of what seems to me an almost unprecedented opportunity to act on a ton of financial information that points to a much higher value than a stock price in the 12s.
I'm adding as long as the dumping occurs.....and as long as I can add.....added at 12.92, 12.89 and 12.71 (moments ago). This may be the best deal on the market, bar none, IMO.
I beefed up a little more today.....agree with you; waiting for both VTSI and NAII to explode literally anytime, both to new levels, significantly higher than where either has been. IMO, Hopeful...
This is not a recommendation but rather a "for your consideration" to the few who bash here with the price in the lower 2s (actually, it's simply unbelievable to me....seems like one would be too embarrassed to do so):
Helpful thought: take your $100 paycheck(s) that comes from your boiler room employer and buy some CNAT.
I mean, aside from getting paid for it, who would take such a foolish position as to bash CNAT in the low 2s here and now on a risk to reward basis??
And the nature of the bash is telling, IMO. I mean, as a long, I'm not fretting dilution or a capital raise.....in fact, I'm expecting a capital raise during this year in some form or fashion and assume every long anticipates this. So, that concern may be fully (or more so) factored in to the stock price already. And if it's not, what's the downside may 20 to 25% max??
No, my concern as a long is as with any bio.....what if unexpected bad news occurs concerning the drug (emricasan) itself? Interestingly, those who bash aren't presenting a case on this front? And why is that? Obviously, the data thus far doesn't bode well for the one bashing when the thus-far data is strong and the market cap is already drubbing the floor....makes it hard to make this case.
So, here's the deal at this time, IMO. I'll go with the bash case being proffered here often and assign a max downside from of 25%.....if an equity raise occurs at 2, for example,the stock price could very well rise on the news BTW, as a relief reaction....remember the drug driver is still there.
Upside potential on significant surprise news (partnership, license deal, etc)......maybe 300% instantly?
So, again, my thought for the day to the basher......take your bashing money and buy CNAT. That's what your employer is doing. Thank me later.
Well, pal, we agree that it was a great quarter and the performance will drive us ultimately, not the time of information release. You just said "Friday morning release - seriously?" So, I saw that as a reference to morning. However, I understood your central point about Friday vs. Monday and it not being about morning or afternoon, but I was simply expressing an opinion that mornings are generally viewed as better and that sooner (Friday in this case) is better than later (Monday).
I was glad to see them go with Friday vs. taking advantage of the extra time due to how the 15th fell. But just because my opinion differs doesn't mean that you are wrong. You could be right about it playing out differently and perhaps better. Over my tenure with VTSI, I've seen it report several times on Fridays. It's so underfollowed......we need more eyes on the company; it's definitely not your routine penny stock. Thanks and best to you too.
I absolutely disagree. A morning release is always better than an afternoon and VTSI consistently releases in the morning. Technically, yes, it could have reported today since the 15th fell on the weekend, but for me personally, I would have been concerned had they not released before the 15th. Actually, like uptab and perhaps others, I was really expecting a Friday release days in advance of the release. Anyway, I disagree. VTSI got a good reaction on Friday and I doubt it would have been more so today....although it surely deserves it....and it'll get there (soon, IMO).
I know not everyone agrees on this...especially the timing; but I literally think a volume surge is coming any time and this will be in the 14s faster than you can spit....with or without Borg's activity. In fact, it may take Borg selling whatever he may have left under his filing just to keep NAII from piercing 15 right away. This has been a virtual non-reaction to a report so good it made one's head spin around.
It has dipped below 6 a short while back and I bought....and I've bought a couple of K more today. It has always generated a positive return for me when I bought again in the 5s. In the 5s, it's not highly dependent on the next report.....in fact, it could be a bad one and the price won't likely even flinch down here but a good report could be profitable, IMO.
You can't drive a car forward looking in the rear view mirror.....and you can't make the next decision on KTCC by looking at the past.
KTCC's analyst raised all his forward looking earnings estimates after this last report. When you see upward earnings adjustments for the foreseeable future by analysts and a deeply undervalued stock like KTCC has not reacted, if you are going to drive forward, the next decision is pretty obvious, IMO. KTCC trades well below book and narrowly acknowledges its tangible net worth, much less its earnings prowess.
I just added 3K at 7.49 even though I'm already satisfied with my position. It is just too compelling for me at this price.
P.S. I also think the next few months (at least) will be very good for NAII on an "OT" note.
Well, I hope so, Brifellows. I think for some of us very long-termers, it's tough keeping the faith vs. allowing familiarity to breed contempt.
In all honesty, it seems this ATSE is a tough nut to crack. You apparently have to have some great lawyers writing the contracts and it seems the learning curve is pretty steep. I'm sure CB and the team have worked very hard at it too.
I knew the primary revenue shortfall was on the rugged IT side.....that was in the 10Q. The need for a press release to me was just the dignity it adds to good communications which are essential, IMO, to trust and respect. I still wonder about the future execution of the ATSE business relative to Saltillo.
So, I'm sure it's frustrating for management but maybe we are getting close. All I can say after all this time is "I sure hope so."
.....and I acknowledge the press release; I'm glad I was premature and wrong about doubting whether we'd get anything beyond the 10Q. It does make me feel better about CB and the team. I, with you, wish we had some further explanation about the issue.....I suppose that's what is most bewildering and creates doubt about future execution. Contracts are great but as others have already stated, they don't mean much if they don't translate into revenues and earnings.
he doesn't issue a press release explaining things. I've followed Brekford for years now and been a loyal shareholder like many....taking a huge loss on Baltimore as I sold down a big position, working very hard to make it up elsewhere....then coming back to the stock and accumulating a good position again.
Perhaps, the company will issue a press release and I'm speaking out of turn. I hope so. But in late March we get a super optimistic report and here less than 2 months later we get a 10Q filed after hours on Friday and to this point are left to say "what happened." As an owner, IMO, it is management's duty to explain and not to just say something when it is feeling good but hang you out to dry when it would rather not comment.
Again, I hope I'm speaking out of turn and a press release is in the works but, IMO, there should have been something in print early this morning before the market opened.
Since I've been a shareholder here, this isn't the first time correspondence has gone like this....and BFDI is not the only company that just puts out a filing with no earnings release, leaving you to hope to glean something from the management discussion in the filing. But BFDI is hit and miss and it seems to depend on whether it wants to communicate or alternatively avoid doing so.
So, while CB and corporate management may not be required to correspond beyond the filing, IMO, to do so, especially in situations like this, reflects respect for the shareholders because they know we are scratching our heads today wanting to know what changed and if nothing changed, was this outcome indeed expected because it sure didn't sound like it in late March's commentary. Anyway, I think we should get an earnings report with some explanation.
I've never seen a more dazzling 10Q on the whole.
Balance sheet is beyond impeccable with extremely high relative cash and working capital position with no debt.
Income Statement reveals incredible revenue growth occurring with strong leverage to margins. For example, 9 month period profit margin ending March 31, 2015 was 4%; 9 month period ending March 31, 2016 was better than 10%.
Statement of Cash Flows is also a thing to beauty. This company is a cash machine generating huge cash flow from operations and free cash flow.
The company's lender just raised the 5M credit line to 10M. This is really interesting to me. Why? Because NAII has a ton of cash, generates a ton of cash (even before this big growth spurt) and has not tapped its credit line as far back as I can recall. Perhaps this increase is significant relative to future growth opportunity.
The company has a 5M stock buyback program in place after raising it last year....makes one wonder about Borg and potential plans there. NAII is great with money.....picked the bottom this year buying 16900 shares back at 6.93/share on the pullback this past January.....remarkable. I mean, that was literally just about the bottom of that pullback....also the fact they were buying near 7 after stock hung forever in 5s says a lot about the future, IMO.
International growth is phenomenal. For 3 months ended 2015, U.S. sales were 11.857M and this year, they were 13.374, a 12.8% jump.....not shabby. BUT, get this, non U.S sales last year's March quarter were 7.756M while this year they were 16.632M, an increase of over 114%.....WOW....I wonder what happens when the throughput from expansion kicks in on July 1??
The only real risk is NAII's customer concentration, but this planned expansion is to grow sales and diversify customer base. Check out the Juice Plus company. It is a significant NAII driver now per the 10Q.
Let some fret over Borg; IMO, he's a nothing burger; NAII is a freight train, IMO.