I am not interested in insulting anybody or speculating about the factors that affect short term trading in the stock. I suggest you look at a 10-year chart of the stock compared to IWM, an index of small-cap stocks. The chart indicates that AMNF is up 344% over 10-years while IWM is up 89.4% That comparison understates things since AMNF has consistently paid a much higher dividend than IWM and has paid periodic special dividends. The EPS growth rate for AMNF has been very strong over the years, making the valuation reasonable, the balance sheet is conservative, the growth potential is substantial and ultimately a buy-out is a good possibility. The stock has never been very liquid yet has managed to keep rising, with good reason I would suggest. I have been there with a large holding for all 10 years (even earlier) and plan to remain in the stock going forward, unless something changes which I don't expect. The multi-year history of success, good dividends and reasonable valuation with likely continued growth is for me all that matters.
Good luck to you in the market.
I wasn't expecting an increase before September, and assume that things are going well with the estimate of the cost of the expansion, and otherwise. If they had any concerns, they could easily have done nothing now and re-evaluated in September.
Nice note this morning from Sun Trust:
Sun Trust sees value in BDCs:
Apollo Investment (NASDAQ:AINV), PennantPark Investment (NASDAQ:PNNT), and Fifth Street Finance (NASDAQ:FSC) are "highly oversold," turning the risk/reward in the trio positive, says SunTrust. They've got 25-40% upside, but patience will be required.
(PNNT), slammed in the past year due to high energy exposure, now boasts a yield near 18%. Terwilliger thinks it’s cheap and lauds the management team.
The major new customer is very good news, as is the fact that Asia is back on track. They wouldn't be expanding capacity if they weren't optimistic about demand going forward.
Just to be clear, the 10% in earnings growth reported for Q4 (16% pre-tax) was not sequential. It was as compared to Q4 of 2014. Obviously, it will be important to see if the growth continues when Q1 and Q2 are announced, but Q4 was a good quarter and the commentary bodes well going forward. I agree with you that the large disparity between pre-tax and net results is puzzling. However, even the lower net number is a good one.
You say you need to see 10% Q over Q. That's exactly what they delivered in q4 -- 10% q over q.. As I pointed out, the 16% increase pre-tax is particularly impressive and far more meaningful in demonstrating growth.
They had a bad quarter in Q3. The many years of positive surprises and consistent growth gives them the right to have one bad quarter that gets forgotten about. Things seem to be back on track with the quarter reported today and the growth initiatives going forward.
If Yahoo doesn't allow the link to take, go to seeking alpha and put in amnf in the search window. It's the first article with Buffett in the title.
A particularly good number is pre-tax income which was up 16%, compared to 10% for net income (don't know why the tax rate apparently increased). The former is more indicative of the growth of the business and consistent with the 16% increase in sales. All in all a good report IMHO. Remember that Q4 is a seasonally weak quarter. The commentary regarding initiatives to increase production are positive. Plus, the yen has been strengthening recently which is a positive for Japanese sales in Q1.
The confusion arises because there are 2 ways to compute the %: as a % of n.a.v or as a % of assets. Assets includes debt so the energy % is roughly half of what it is as a % of n.av. Whether or not utilities is included is another source of a difference, but the n.a.v. vs. assets is the key.
The higher number takes the leverage into account. In other words oil may be about 8% of the portfolio which includes debt, but if the oil investments went to 0, the nav would go down 17%. It works in reverse when the oil investments recover.
"give us optimism that 4th quarter financial performance will meet or surpass the then record financial performance posted by the Company in 2014. Of course, with approximately one month to go before final 4th quarter results are in, we cannot predict the quarter’s outcome." a
I read at as referring to Q4 and the expectation is that Q4 of 2015 will beat (or at least meet) Q4 of 2014 which was he best Q4 ever as of that time. Presumably, this refers to both revenues and earnings, presumably both total earnings and earnings per share.
Flug bought another 10K on Monday ( up to141K shares) and director Samuel Katz reported buying 5K+ on Friday. and now owns 169K shares. The combination of these buys is a very healthy sign. The old adage that there are many reasons for selling a stock but only one reason for buying, has some truth to it. I bought more this morning at 6.715.
Of all the things that are relevant to amnf's performance going forward, the dollar is nowhere near the top of the list. The dollar has no effect whatsoever on about 93% of the business. Future success of the business will depend on growing the customer base in the United States, adding new products, possibly expanding the geographical area in which the company does business, reducing promotional expenses when prudent, etc. The Japanese business is a nice diversification, but not a major driver.
Amnf had a mildly disappointing quarter which looked worse than it really was because last year's Q3 was unusually strong due to special factors. To extrapolate from one quarter and say the growth rate has gone down substantially is to unreasonably jump to a conclusions without basis IMO.
Somebody obviously is selling. It could be for a variety of reasons, anything from having had a stop loss order that was triggered to needing funds for a margin call. I wish the stock had more liquidity but that's the way it has always been.
Amnf has been VERY good to me. I have 180K shares and it has made me a lot of money since 2005. For me, management has a lot in the bank, having done so well for so long. I have no reason to change my positive view based on some Japanese weakness with 6 or 7% of sales and some additional promotional expenses in Q3. The balance sheet is terrific, the yield at current levels is approaching 4%, the company will possibly be sold in the next two years and in the meantime has opportunity to grow. It continues to be a very attractive stock to own, especially at current levels.
I find it interesting that the .019 ex-div did not affect the large bidder at 2.20. I'm assuming it's the same person bidding as before. He wouldn't pay 2.21 yesterday and get the div, while happy to pay 2.20 today and not get it. Sure the market is up today, but amnf is generally not correlated to the indices.