I am very,very, long energy. But annual U?S. consumption is ~2.7 TCF. So if we go into the draw w 3.9TCF.... It is hard to imagine nirvana for energy/gas producers in 3 months.... but I would be delighted!
Joe, here is the problem. Inventories are ~500bcf above average and above last year at this time. Ergo at 40bcf less production per quarter it takes ~ 12 quarters to get back to "normal"... 3 more years of pain!!
As an investor in LC loans, I read the article with interest. Unfortunately, the author did not tell me anything I had not witnessed. The article makes it seem like investors might be unaware that more borrowers are defaulting but LC gives loan data daily so you see it in your investments almost immediately. The other problem with the article is that the default rate going up by ~30 percent seems scary, but when that means it moved from 4% to 5.5% and your average borrower is paying 12% and net of fees you are receiving a 5.5 % to 6 % annual return after the increase in defaults well then not so bad... in fact, still better than many alternatives. Just my thoughts as I am not a shareholder but I do have a few thousand LC notes and plenty of history and data. I am a satisfied investor in LC notes/loans.
Definitely, E! After I read the Vanity Fair article it seemed apparent to me that Mr. Ackman had not done sufficient due diligence. So great entertainment.
I am sorry for your pain. I hope you rebound and can create another multiple choice where most of the answers represent monetarily rewarding outcomes.
It is worth reading the Vanity Fair article on Valeant/Pearson/Ackman. What seems clear to me is that Mr. Ackman understood VRX much less well than he should have. To have invested billions of $s and to have missed just how much the entire business model depended on just jacking up drug prices would make any savvy investor run away from Pershing Square. It will be interesting to see if he and Mr. Pappa can save the company.
If you visit the Antero website the characterization of the acquired acreage is "core" or "heart" of the Marcellus. Their press release is effusive about the quality of the acreage.
That was the price paid to CHK, $5 billion for 413,000 acres in the Marcellus. So in June 2016 SWN sold 55,500 acres in the Marcellus to Antero for $450 million or $8,181 an acre. So a drop of 33%. Hmmm? All acreage is not created equal but maybe the rough math works?? 33% haircut for balance sheet protection?? What I know about spudding wells is zilch... just running a calculator.
The rise in oil prices without a rise in ng prices is problematic for SWN because rigs seeking oil will come back on stream and produce some ng "by mistake" keeping ng prices at unprofitable levels.