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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

insider_expert 55 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2016 3:00 PM Member since: Jan 6, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Shorts with license to kill

    by goskiing99 Jul 15, 2016 3:55 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 16, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    JJ,
    That is exactly why I call it "opportunity knocks"..,this keeping Noble's feet to the fire, even if it takes couple of months longer, could potentially be a major plus for the company and hence a major boost for the shareholders...Shareholders #1 objection to the restructuring plan is been its leiniency with Noble who saddled Paragon with over a Billion in debt and contracts like those with Petrabrass of less than desirable terms...in my view at the end of the next couple of months in the worse case scenario we'll end up with the plan in its original shape...but with this Noble heating there are potential for Noble to take on more responsibilities and even a bite out of the debt...,
    I have no idea if markets are going to grasp this important and potentially bet positive matter sooner, in which case the stock should turn around and begin ascending again come Monday, or later which is where my "opportunity knocks" comes in and if the price corrects further it only provides opportunity for longs to accumulate more and more and more...

    As aside, someone here had questioned whether at the end of the next couple of months the 65% of restructured shares given to shareholders could be compromised to which my definite response is a big fat NO...
    If you read the latest FAQs released be the company on their website this last week the make the same very clear (this after the main body of hearings already behind us)...in addition the next couple of months is solely about Noble...in addition the term lenders, while questioning how much cash given to bond holders and questing the agreement with Nible, they have never questioned the 65%...of course even if they had company's FAQ of last week makes it clear the 65% will be contained in the final approved plan...

    I added only some shares on Friday but may liquidate some other stocks to buy Paragon more aggressively ..,

    The longs that listened and added shares a few months ago are now very happy they did...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anything up?

    by jmmarque1 Jul 15, 2016 11:20 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 15, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    There is a major problems accessing this message board except from a mobile device...what a pity ...hopefully yahoo will get it fixed soon....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Jul 15, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    The plan's confirmation is now expected to take another couple of weeks or more as the wheels of our legal system grinds forward. On the surface the seems a disappointment but in reality this is no doubt a golden big time opportunity to add as I have been this morning and plan to continue doing so....markets don't like uncertainty or holding funds in an stock for too long while waiting for a court's ruling...Imaging what FNMA investors feel as they've been waiting for several years now just to see if they'll have their day in court which in itself, provided they get the chance, may take months or years (and yet the share price is held pretty good).

    Fortunately for Paragon share holders they've had their day in court and the outcome is pretty much clear with only hurdle being a couple months more of wait time...And this is where the opportunity knocks as despite an obvious court outcome the shares are being punished (manipulated?) for absolutely no good reason giving investors opportunity to add as post plan's approval shares price will be several times what it is today...

    One last point: these hearings about Noble is actually what shareholders should want in the hope of getting more out of Noble as I also did not think the plan provided enough relief from all the debts Noble had saddled Paragon with....otherwise I am saying to longs: listen you dummies it is a good thing that term lenders are holding the Noble's feet to the fire ...

    Bottom line : holding back the plan by term lenders with the hope of extracting more out of Noble should be viewed as positive for longs and as markets misread this and shares get punish it presents a major opportunity for longs to add...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Check it out as it answers all questions and more (thanks to an extremely helpful IR under Lee Ahlstrom's leadership)...As we all know markets don't like uncertainty but this latest FAQs takes all uncertainty out...Bottom-line is this court case may drag out until sometimes next months partly because judge is taking few weeks of vacation...Company continues to expect a favorable court ruling with plan approved in its original form...Company also continues to expect to be out of bk this summer; Otherwise all is well and as expected but like most court cases it is going to take a couple of months or so.

    Disclosure: I am long this stock, have not sold any shares this year and have continued to add when possible; Everything posted here are purely IMHO and you should do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jul 4, 2016 4:46 AM Flag

    there’s a telephonic hearing scheduled for next Friday to discuss the timing for to present testimony about the Noble settlement, which is an important part of the plan. The Term Loan lenders had attacked that settlement during the hearing and Paragon wants the judge to understand more about the settlement and why they believe it’s in the best interests of all involved. So we’ll know more about the rest of the schedule once that hearing is done.

    And so it appears we have to wait longer but as you so well explain both the delay and term lenders pressure to get a better deal from Noble is advantageous to both shareholders and Paragon... The bottom line is that the plan will eventually get approved with minimal to no changes...

    My plan is to add shares should the share prices get a haircut because of the delays...I do strongly believe that this stock is extremely undervalued and will be a multi bagger from here.

    Disclosure : I am long investor this stock and have been adding but have not sold any shares since the beginning of the year. Everything mentioned here is only my opinion and you need to do your own DD ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Someone here had said that next Friday's SC is about Noble...it turns out Noble it is..,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WIll find out he outcome Jul 08!!!

    by xhonda94x Jun 30, 2016 6:47 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    Although, as mentioned, anything is possible with these Status conferences but I disagree with you as the notice clearly refers to Docket 318 (which contains the whole plan of reorganization) as the subject matter and not a single item....Note that in status conference notices it is customary to indicate in general terms what it pertains to and here they saying it specifically pertains to the whole plan. Of course we can speculate all we want but at the end of day we just going to have to wait for next Friday to find out the real reason behind this SC. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 7:44 AM Flag

    It is many many pages but basically at its core is the original PLAN for restructuring with some added amendments (which does not affect us as shareholders) with all the original terms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WIll find out he outcome Jul 08!!!

    by xhonda94x Jun 30, 2016 6:47 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 7:39 AM Flag

    Status conference (SC) at this stage of post hearing (yesterday was the last day of hearing) generally is planned to announce a settlement by attorneys and not a ruling by the judge...Of course an status conference could be for a number of other reasons and anything is possible; Here is the definition of status conference:

    "a pre-trial meeting of attorneys before a judge required under Federal Rules of Procedure and in many states to inform the court as to how the case is proceeding, what discovery has been conducted (depositions, interrogatories, production of documents), any settlement negotiations, probable length of trial, and other matters relevant to moving the case toward trial. Court rules usually require the filing of a status conference statement prior to the conference. In Federal courts the status conference is also the occasion for setting a trial date"

    While not an attorney, I have been involved in some trials in different capacities and usually scheduling of an SC right after the last scheduled days of trial indicates that one side is decided for whatever reasons they rather settle the case than wait for either extended trial/hearing or for judge to rule; Also note that the notice for SC was filed by debtor's (Paragon) attorney's which is a good initial sign that if the SC is because of a settlement agreement that the debtors like the terms and are rushing in an SC to finalize it before other matters comes up or messes it up.

    Again the SC could be for a number of reasons but my hunch is that a settlement may have been reached based on original plan filed on April 19th; But it is just a hunch !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Insiderfinacial.com -pgnpq - good read

    by jj.flight Jun 25, 2016 8:02 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 25, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    Thank you JJ....A great article that sums up pretty much what the longs and the management is been saying all along...It does make me wonder why stock did not go upto $1.5-2 before start of the hearing this past week...But looking at the extremely anemic volume of the past few days while stock is been drifting a bit lower tells me shorts are stock as there are NO sellers and shorts are selling to themselves trying to shake weak hands but they are failing miserably...
    Fasten your seatbelt for when the plan's approval is announced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "The confirmation hearing will be spread over five sessions through June 30 before Sontchi decides whether to approve the plan and allow Paragon to exit bankruptcy."

    Next Monday is the 5th day; We may hear something that day but judge may take more time to decide.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That is the worst case scenario presented to the court today !!! For months now the famous basher (the Pitiful Fun Traitor) at SA has been claiming Paragon to run out of cash early in 2017 in article after article followed with his bodies and his own aliases piling on;

    THREE years is a long time folks...and much longer than most presumed..of course if the plaintiffs are claiming 3 years the actual number if probably twice as long...But also what about added time for any new contracts in the next THREE long years or more?

    Having said that I agree with them that giving up $510 million was a bit too much and hope just may be these hearings will result on reducing that amount so the company can have more cash; That would be ideal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jun 20, 2016 7:04 PM Flag

    What is so complicated about this that some here don't seem to understand?
    Post restructuring it does not matter how many shares they assign as outstanding; All you need to know is:

    1-what the total equity value assigned at that time;
    2-and that 65% of that amount is awarded to shareholders.

    As of today the cap is is not even 80 million whereas in the court docs submitted by the two firms hired by the company they have assigned an equity value of $742 million (with $988 million upper limit) of which 35% will go to bondholders and 65% to shareholders. The final number of shares outstanding could be a million or a billion but it won't matter as shareholder portion will still be 65% of the equity value of the restructured company.

    But also note that the $742 million was calculated at a time when oil prices were hovering under $30; otherwise at today's oil prices of near $50 and moving up no doubt the equity value would be calculated at much higher amount.

    Now lets say the plan is approved and restructuring is completed; and lets assume the company , post restructuring, decides to stick to the $742 million and assigns that amount as the market cap; Then take 65% of that amount which would be $482 million; this would be the values of total shares assigned to shareholders; Now dividing $482 million into today's total market cap of $77 million it will give you 6.2 which means the value of shareholders total shares will have to go up by 620% to match these numbers...

    Summary: if post structuring only $742 million average equity value mentioned in the court docs is assigned to shareholders and going by 65% the value of your shares at that time will be up by 620%. But if they go by $988 million or even higher because of oil prices having moved up then it would be much more than 620%.

    It is all very simple.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Without or without new contracts; Have no doubts and hold onto your shares tight. Shorts will try to shake your hands by selling on the low some of their reserve 'bullets' shares they have previously accumulated for exactly such occasions; They'll try to use any delays or rumors or news or no-news to sell those shares and to bring the price down to scare you off so you'll sell; and will volume currently low as nobody is trading awaiting the hearing's outcome the shorts can manipulate the price easily but for a short time as buyers will come in.

    I ask all longs to stay focused; Please put all your shares for sell at a high limit order of say $10/share so shorts can't borrow them and hold on tight; Also buy any dip caused by their manipulation but buy only at BID.

    One more thing: Brexit vote is due on 24th and if passed expect a temporary drop in oil prices which may also effect the share price on many in oil sector but I believe Paragon , while awaiting the plan's approval, may hold if longs stay focused and don't get shaken.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Along with his bodies, all from the same certain religion and SA's founder, are allowed to rip off naive investors and newbies by form a gang and posting so called articles and commenting for one another's "articles" and working 24/7 to manipulate their target stock aimed at lining their pockets at other expense.

    If this is not a fraud then I don't know what is? They all, including SA's founder and owner, need to be prosecuted. But don't expect that as the whole country is currently in a complete chaos because of Obama's incompetency.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Better hope the deal is approved asap

    by alicpzc Jun 15, 2016 6:11 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 15, 2016 7:44 PM Flag

    Dok,
    You very funny....I also laughed about you "two little girls" post although I am of the opinion that Bulldog is not but another alias for Fun Trading....
    But you lose in being funny department to FT/BD...You know why? Because every-time I read this clown's posts it makes me crack up at this guy's courage that after being wrong about Paragon consistently for over a year regarding everything about the company and about offshore drillers he continues to pretend to be the only expert and only brain in the room; I believe him to have a grandiose delusional disorder; What is even more funny is he disputes every highly regarded expert in the field;
    I believe he is a con-artist that while being a paid basher also day-trade after causing small movements in certain stocks following posting articles on SA and getting his bodies to also post similar articles or/and make supportive comments;

    In my view SA was a good idea that is been turned into a domain for manipulative gangs that feed to naive investors....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jun 15, 2016 6:54 PM Flag

    Jmm,

    Thanks for the update...I have no doubt the plan will be approved as is without any modifications.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Today's article:

    Oil prices could surge above $85 a barrel by the end of this year, according to analysis by Michael Rothman, considered to be one of the most astute oil experts on Wall Street, CNBC reports.

    Rothman heads the research firm Cornerstone Analytics, through which he advises governments from all over the world, the oil-rich Saudi royal family and its affiliates, and energy firms.

    Barrel prices hit a 13-year low on the 11th February this year. Last week, they surged to above $50-the first time they have done so since July last year.

    The Nasdaq price for a barrel of Brent oil stood at $50.20 on Monday.

    The Qatari head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said previously that new investment in the sector requires barrel prices to rise above $65.

    OPEC has made no strides in accelerating price growth over the past two months.

    Two separate pushes to reduce oil production in an effort to force prices upwards have been rejected by Saudi Arabia, who fears Iran's rise if it does not join the proposed freezes.

    Russia, the 13-member bloc's rival, said OPEC has "practically stopped existing as a united organization" before the proposed freezes failed to get approved for a second time on 2 June.

    Iranian officials have made it clear that they will not participate in production halts as the government works to restart the country's economic engine. International sanctions lifted earlier this year had locked Iran out of the global oil trade for years.

    Under the present circumstances, the government and the Oil Ministry have not issued any policy or plan to the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) towards halting the increase in the production and exports of oil," Rokneddin Javadi, who heads the state-run National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), said last month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Today Paragon website posted answers to many questions investor may have regarding the restructuring...Go the Paragonoffshore dot com and click under Financial Restructuring Information...
    Part of the post is as follows:

    Updated Frequently Asked Questions
    June 14, 2016
    • Where does the process stand?
    o The next major event in the process is the confirmation hearing scheduled for June 21-23
    2016.
    • Has anything about the restructuring plan changed?
    o No, there have been no changes to the plan.
    o The restructuring is expected to eliminate more than $1.1 billion of debt and
    approximately $60 million of annual cash interest expense. Specifically:
     Paragon’s unsecured senior noteholders will exchange $984 million in senior
    unsecured notes for $345 million in cash up-front plus 35% of equity, and
     Paragon’s Revolver banks will receive $165 million in exchange for providing
    covenant relief.
    o Paragon’s existing equity holders will retain 65% of the company’s resulting common
    equity.
    o Further details and specifics are available in our filings.
    • What happens at the confirmation hearing?
    o We will go before the judge in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware and ask the judge
    to ‘confirm’ or approve our restructuring plan.
    o The hearing will commence on Tuesday, June 21st at 10 AM Eastern time and is expected
    to conclude by Thursday, June 23rd at close of business.
    o Any objections/arguments against the plan will be heard by the judge. Expert testimony
    will be offered by both sides.
    • When will you announce the outcome?
    o Paragon expects to announce the outcome of the hearing once the judge has issued his
    ruling.
    o The judge could issue his ruling as early as the same day the hearing concludes or he may
    take several days to consider the evidence and then issue a ruling.
    o While it could be earlier, you should not be surprised if the ruling is not issued until
    sometime during the week of June 27th, 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jun 14, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Junk,
    I agree the plan could be approved on the very first day or could take several days but I have no doubt it will be approved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AFFY
0.068+0.0010(+1.49%)Jul 22 9:30 AMEDT