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Sony Corporation Message Board

insider_expert 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2016 9:31 AM Member since: Jan 6, 2013
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  • I advise longs not to get excited and not to sell any shares as this stock has much more upside over the next weeks and months and has the potential to reach double digits before the end of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1-Since management is been involved in restructuring process they are "totally blacked out. Can't buy or sell".
    "anything anyone might see on a Form 4 would be vesting of shares with some shares forfeited to cover taxes".

    2- For the months leading to bk filing "in general, we've got a lot of MNPI (material non-public information) at any given time. For example, negotiating the Prospectus acquisition, negotiating the sale-leaseback, considering hiring advisors, then during the whole process of formulating/negotiating the plan. We've got insider during all this! Make sense?".

    I can add this myself that many at the company must definitely not be happy that they have basically been blocked off from trading Paragon's stock for the longest time....and yet this management is been shareholder friendly and fair/kind enough to manage, through tough negotiations, to attain 65% of the restructured company for equity holders...I would think that not only they deserved the bonus but that once finances stabilizes and contracts start rolling in that as shareholders we should all ask for a more substantial bonus for them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The following is an excerpt of an email sent to me by Paragon's IR yesterday in a response to my inquiry:

    "The Motion to Shorten is purely procedural in nature. It lets the court accept the shortened/redacted objection. There’s nothing to read into there.
    Everything is still on track for the hearing on the 21st. We continue to be confident that the judge will rule in our favor and the plan will be approved. It’s important to note that while our projections for a recovery in the industry go through 2019, we would really be able to repay or refinance as long as the elements of the recovery were realized by 2021, which gives us even more room. We, of course, have our own experts to refute the objection."

    Obviously the correction in share price of the past 2 days has been for completely baseless although it gave the true investors here to add shares.

    Disclosure: I am long the stock, have not sold any shares this year, and have been adding including this morning; Everything I say is purely my opinion and not an advice to buy or sell shares of this stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Remember only 2 week left to the court day of June 21st for approval of restructuring plan...The latest sudden talk of dilution is not but a ploy mostly by the same few shorts with multiple aliases. The fact is that you get 65% of the restructured company, by far more than any other company in the whole oil sector that is gone or going through restructuring, Of course that means 35% of the restructured company is given to debt holders but in return you'll own the share of a company with $1.1 Billion less debt; Also always remember that the current share price is only a fraction of what the shares were at less than a couple of years ago when it was at a double digit but had $1.1 Billion more debt as well....

    This is the opportunity of a lifetime and shorts are after shaking the weak hands so they can cover. DON"T LET THEM.

    And place a limit sell order on all your shares at $10 or more so shorts can't borrow them.

    2 more weeks and you'll be sitting on shares of the restructured company suited for very long term investment ; Saudis are wanting the oil price to hit minimum $60 before their IPO but no doubt they will get oil prices above even $60 after which new contracts will start coming in for shallow water drillers like Paragon and we may even begin seeing dividends early next year.

    Call Paragon and speak to Lee Ahlstrom with any questions you have.

    Shares now back above 90 cents after shorts managed to shake some poor souls hands...soon we'll be above $1, and $2, and ....Don't have doubts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pre pak

    by squeez62 Jun 4, 2016 3:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 5, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    Sorry Alan but you are completely wrong; according to the disclosures submitted to the court late in April the book value's midrange is $1863 million; the $742 million you referring to is the equity value which is roughly a discounted 39% of the $1863's book value; and remember the $742 million is mid point and high point according to the docs is $ 988 million I believe...current cap of roughly $76 million needs to go up several folds, close to 10 folds, to even come close to the equity value estimates submitted in disclosure docs to the court by two of the most respected law firms in the country..,Good luck...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That is the worst case scenario presented to the court today !!! For months now the famous basher (the Pitiful Fun Traitor) at SA has been claiming Paragon to run out of cash early in 2017 in article after article followed with his bodies and his own aliases piling on;

    THREE years is a long time folks...and much longer than most presumed..of course if the plaintiffs are claiming 3 years the actual number if probably twice as long...But also what about added time for any new contracts in the next THREE long years or more?

    Having said that I agree with them that giving up $510 million was a bit too much and hope just may be these hearings will result on reducing that amount so the company can have more cash; That would be ideal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Going by the median equity value submitted to the court of $742 million (the upper end estimated actually at $988 million) the share price should get to around $8.62 although if the 35% shares given to bondholders is taken into account it would be $5.60...Mind you the equity estimate is based on oil price at the end of April when it was in 30's (submitted to the court on 4/19/2016)...I believe if we were to factor in the current oil price of over $50 and improved prospects of new contracts such as last month's with Awilco the current share price should be well into double digit area (provided the court approves the plan on June 21st or shortly thereafter).

    Disclosure: I am long this stock and have not sold any shares this year and all my posts are purely my personal opinions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The followings is excerpts from disclosure statements filled with court on 4/19/2016 by Lazard (to see the full disclosure go to http://www.kccllc.net/paragon/document/list/4207 page 53.

    VIII.
    VALUATION ANALYSIS
    A. Estimated Reorganization Valuation of the Debtors
    The Debtors have been advised by Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (“Lazard”) with respect to the
    reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors on a going concern basis.
    Solely for purposes of the Plan, the estimated range of a reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors
    was assumed to be approximately $1,650 million to $2,075 million (with a midpoint estimate of
    approximately $1,863 million) as of an assumed Effective Date of June 30, 2016. The valuation analysis
    herein is based on information as of March 14, 2016 and is based on the Projections for the Projection
    Period. For purposes of this valuation, it has been assumed that no material changes that would affect
    value occur between March 14, 2016 and the assumed Effective Date. Lazard’s estimate of a range of
    reorganization values does not constitute an opinion as to fairness from a financial point of view of the
    consideration to be received under the Plan or of the terms and provisions of the Plan.
    Based upon the assumed combined range of the reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors of
    between $1,650 million and $2,075 million and assumed net debt of $1,120 million (assuming a debt
    balance of $1,408 million and a pro forma cash balance of $288 million as of June 30, 2016), Lazard
    has employed an imputed estimate of the range of equity value for the Reorganized Debtors between
    approximately $530 million and $955 million, with a midpoint estimate of $742 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pre pak

    by squeez62 Jun 4, 2016 3:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 5, 2016 6:41 PM Flag

    You really should be thanking the highly skilled, proactive, and fair minded management team as well as hardworking and dedicated men and women of this company; (Please note that this management team was for the longest time ripped to pieces and insulted by many right here and at the other message boards and at SA for no good reason )...

    As for new contracts I believe Paragon is well positioned to sign up new contract ahead of most other in the sector once price stabilizes around $55-60 or so. Why you ask? for two very important reason :

    1- Paragon has one of the best marketing teams in the sector to attain new contracts and nearly everyone in the offshore drilling knows that (their marketing team comprises of highly skilled men and women that had worked for Noble and others for many many years with an excellent track record) ;

    2- Most offshore experts agree that shallow water guys such as Paragon will be first in line to get new contracts and way before deep and ultra-deep guys because of the huge expense difference; This relative low cost plus Paragon's cheaper rates because of somewhat aging rigs makes makes them a prime candidate in this tough environment for upcoming new contracts...

  • We had a similar day on May 27 when stock gave up green and even closed in red at 57 cents; I posted then that it was healthy for an upward stock to have days of backing a filling ...and look where the share price is today less than 2 weeks later; One should always remember that it is healthy for upward stocks to climb a wall of worry rather make big jumps without taking breathers...

    Having said that I think one reason the weak hands and day traders were shaken today may have been because of the objections filed by term lenders yesterday...My response is of course that first of all it was filed yesterday and many, including myself knew about it but did not see anything new in their latest objections filing as there were the rehash of the objections filed a couple of months ago despite of which Judge Christopher Sontchi signed off on an outline of restructuring plan paving the way for the creditors to cast their votes...

    The thing is that the more weak hands and day traders are shaken the better off the investors will be in reckoning days; It is worth noting that these folks don't do a proper dd and are usually sitting on fence and always looking out for any excuse to sell even when the excuse is a rehash of a two months old news.

    I continue to expect the plan to be approved by the court in due time and hopefully on first day of such hearing on June 21st and 100% intend to hold on tight to all my shares knowing what I know and after a near two years of very detailed and fundamental and no-nonsense research into this company and their culture and proactive management, the current oil market, the dollar's gyrations, fracking's substantial issues, the goldmine opportunity with some offshore drillers as the most pummeled segment of the whole oil sector, the OPEC's intentions and now desperations, and idiot Saudi's weakened hands and internal and economic turmoils (not to mentioned finally their exposure as the main force behind 911 as well as the murderous isis).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jul 4, 2016 4:46 AM Flag

    there’s a telephonic hearing scheduled for next Friday to discuss the timing for to present testimony about the Noble settlement, which is an important part of the plan. The Term Loan lenders had attacked that settlement during the hearing and Paragon wants the judge to understand more about the settlement and why they believe it’s in the best interests of all involved. So we’ll know more about the rest of the schedule once that hearing is done.

    And so it appears we have to wait longer but as you so well explain both the delay and term lenders pressure to get a better deal from Noble is advantageous to both shareholders and Paragon... The bottom line is that the plan will eventually get approved with minimal to no changes...

    My plan is to add shares should the share prices get a haircut because of the delays...I do strongly believe that this stock is extremely undervalued and will be a multi bagger from here.

    Disclosure : I am long investor this stock and have been adding but have not sold any shares since the beginning of the year. Everything mentioned here is only my opinion and you need to do your own DD ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Longs don't get too excited but celebrate not because we hit $1 but because the long awaited ascend is just begun; As mentioned in court docs the equity value proved to the court is around $742 million with an upper amount of $988 million; Current cap still under a meager $90 million; We have a very very long ways to go; Again, this company is still cash flow positive and not only will survive the oil price down turn but will thrive and your shares if held one day will provide you a nice dividend.

    Disclosure: I am very long Paragon, have not sold any shares this year and have been adding including this morning. Everything I say is purely my opinion and you need to do your own dd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shorts know what is coming up and will try one more time possibly even using their stooges at SA such as their main lap dog Fun Trading to question whether the plan will be approved or point to no new contracts in just released FSR.

    This would be my answer: first of all the plan's chances is getting approved is excellent and barring the judge completely flipping and falling for term lenders bs it should be approved on the same day or the following day (21st or 22nd).

    As for no new contracts or stacked rigs that is the story for all offshore drillers right now but oil on the move up and demand for oil keeps rising all the while U.S. oil production has been heading south and OPEC production has not been increasing for months now. With strong marketing team and proactive management as well as sweet spot of shallow water that Paragon is in we should be one of the first to pick up contract as soon as they start being awarded.

    But most importantly remember that 65% of the restructured company is given to shareholders something no other restructured company in oil sector has come even close to...

    So don't let the panicked shorts scare you off your shares. Hold on tight as this is already one of the biggest winners but future looks much much brighter and you should expect much more gains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Without or without new contracts; Have no doubts and hold onto your shares tight. Shorts will try to shake your hands by selling on the low some of their reserve 'bullets' shares they have previously accumulated for exactly such occasions; They'll try to use any delays or rumors or news or no-news to sell those shares and to bring the price down to scare you off so you'll sell; and will volume currently low as nobody is trading awaiting the hearing's outcome the shorts can manipulate the price easily but for a short time as buyers will come in.

    I ask all longs to stay focused; Please put all your shares for sell at a high limit order of say $10/share so shorts can't borrow them and hold on tight; Also buy any dip caused by their manipulation but buy only at BID.

    One more thing: Brexit vote is due on 24th and if passed expect a temporary drop in oil prices which may also effect the share price on many in oil sector but I believe Paragon , while awaiting the plan's approval, may hold if longs stay focused and don't get shaken.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Today Paragon website posted answers to many questions investor may have regarding the restructuring...Go the Paragonoffshore dot com and click under Financial Restructuring Information...
    Part of the post is as follows:

    Updated Frequently Asked Questions
    June 14, 2016
    • Where does the process stand?
    o The next major event in the process is the confirmation hearing scheduled for June 21-23
    2016.
    • Has anything about the restructuring plan changed?
    o No, there have been no changes to the plan.
    o The restructuring is expected to eliminate more than $1.1 billion of debt and
    approximately $60 million of annual cash interest expense. Specifically:
     Paragon’s unsecured senior noteholders will exchange $984 million in senior
    unsecured notes for $345 million in cash up-front plus 35% of equity, and
     Paragon’s Revolver banks will receive $165 million in exchange for providing
    covenant relief.
    o Paragon’s existing equity holders will retain 65% of the company’s resulting common
    equity.
    o Further details and specifics are available in our filings.
    • What happens at the confirmation hearing?
    o We will go before the judge in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware and ask the judge
    to ‘confirm’ or approve our restructuring plan.
    o The hearing will commence on Tuesday, June 21st at 10 AM Eastern time and is expected
    to conclude by Thursday, June 23rd at close of business.
    o Any objections/arguments against the plan will be heard by the judge. Expert testimony
    will be offered by both sides.
    • When will you announce the outcome?
    o Paragon expects to announce the outcome of the hearing once the judge has issued his
    ruling.
    o The judge could issue his ruling as early as the same day the hearing concludes or he may
    take several days to consider the evidence and then issue a ruling.
    o While it could be earlier, you should not be surprised if the ruling is not issued until
    sometime during the week of June 27th, 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Along with his bodies, all from the same certain religion and SA's founder, are allowed to rip off naive investors and newbies by form a gang and posting so called articles and commenting for one another's "articles" and working 24/7 to manipulate their target stock aimed at lining their pockets at other expense.

    If this is not a fraud then I don't know what is? They all, including SA's founder and owner, need to be prosecuted. But don't expect that as the whole country is currently in a complete chaos because of Obama's incompetency.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only 3 weeks left to June 21st when court will look into approving Paragon's restructuring plan. Should be very interesting and rewarding for longs as the shares could jump...how high? difficult to say...as it is the shares, right at this moment, are worth minimum of $6-8 per shares based on actual legal equity value range docs submitted to the court by two of the most respected legal firms in the nation...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Insiderfinacial.com -pgnpq - good read

    by jj.flight Jun 25, 2016 8:02 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 25, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    Thank you JJ....A great article that sums up pretty much what the longs and the management is been saying all along...It does make me wonder why stock did not go upto $1.5-2 before start of the hearing this past week...But looking at the extremely anemic volume of the past few days while stock is been drifting a bit lower tells me shorts are stock as there are NO sellers and shorts are selling to themselves trying to shake weak hands but they are failing miserably...
    Fasten your seatbelt for when the plan's approval is announced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WIll find out he outcome Jul 08!!!

    by xhonda94x Jun 30, 2016 6:47 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    Although, as mentioned, anything is possible with these Status conferences but I disagree with you as the notice clearly refers to Docket 318 (which contains the whole plan of reorganization) as the subject matter and not a single item....Note that in status conference notices it is customary to indicate in general terms what it pertains to and here they saying it specifically pertains to the whole plan. Of course we can speculate all we want but at the end of day we just going to have to wait for next Friday to find out the real reason behind this SC. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WIll find out he outcome Jul 08!!!

    by xhonda94x Jun 30, 2016 6:47 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jul 1, 2016 7:39 AM Flag

    Status conference (SC) at this stage of post hearing (yesterday was the last day of hearing) generally is planned to announce a settlement by attorneys and not a ruling by the judge...Of course an status conference could be for a number of other reasons and anything is possible; Here is the definition of status conference:

    "a pre-trial meeting of attorneys before a judge required under Federal Rules of Procedure and in many states to inform the court as to how the case is proceeding, what discovery has been conducted (depositions, interrogatories, production of documents), any settlement negotiations, probable length of trial, and other matters relevant to moving the case toward trial. Court rules usually require the filing of a status conference statement prior to the conference. In Federal courts the status conference is also the occasion for setting a trial date"

    While not an attorney, I have been involved in some trials in different capacities and usually scheduling of an SC right after the last scheduled days of trial indicates that one side is decided for whatever reasons they rather settle the case than wait for either extended trial/hearing or for judge to rule; Also note that the notice for SC was filed by debtor's (Paragon) attorney's which is a good initial sign that if the SC is because of a settlement agreement that the debtors like the terms and are rushing in an SC to finalize it before other matters comes up or messes it up.

    Again the SC could be for a number of reasons but my hunch is that a settlement may have been reached based on original plan filed on April 19th; But it is just a hunch !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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