Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Sony Corporation Message Board

insider_expert 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2016 9:31 AM Member since: Jan 6, 2013
  • Today Paragon website posted answers to many questions investor may have regarding the restructuring...Go the Paragonoffshore dot com and click under Financial Restructuring Information...
    Part of the post is as follows:

    Updated Frequently Asked Questions
    June 14, 2016
    • Where does the process stand?
    o The next major event in the process is the confirmation hearing scheduled for June 21-23
    2016.
    • Has anything about the restructuring plan changed?
    o No, there have been no changes to the plan.
    o The restructuring is expected to eliminate more than $1.1 billion of debt and
    approximately $60 million of annual cash interest expense. Specifically:
     Paragon’s unsecured senior noteholders will exchange $984 million in senior
    unsecured notes for $345 million in cash up-front plus 35% of equity, and
     Paragon’s Revolver banks will receive $165 million in exchange for providing
    covenant relief.
    o Paragon’s existing equity holders will retain 65% of the company’s resulting common
    equity.
    o Further details and specifics are available in our filings.
    • What happens at the confirmation hearing?
    o We will go before the judge in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware and ask the judge
    to ‘confirm’ or approve our restructuring plan.
    o The hearing will commence on Tuesday, June 21st at 10 AM Eastern time and is expected
    to conclude by Thursday, June 23rd at close of business.
    o Any objections/arguments against the plan will be heard by the judge. Expert testimony
    will be offered by both sides.
    • When will you announce the outcome?
    o Paragon expects to announce the outcome of the hearing once the judge has issued his
    ruling.
    o The judge could issue his ruling as early as the same day the hearing concludes or he may
    take several days to consider the evidence and then issue a ruling.
    o While it could be earlier, you should not be surprised if the ruling is not issued until
    sometime during the week of June 27th, 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Jun 14, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Junk,
    I agree the plan could be approved on the very first day or could take several days but I have no doubt it will be approved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shorts know what is coming up and will try one more time possibly even using their stooges at SA such as their main lap dog Fun Trading to question whether the plan will be approved or point to no new contracts in just released FSR.

    This would be my answer: first of all the plan's chances is getting approved is excellent and barring the judge completely flipping and falling for term lenders bs it should be approved on the same day or the following day (21st or 22nd).

    As for no new contracts or stacked rigs that is the story for all offshore drillers right now but oil on the move up and demand for oil keeps rising all the while U.S. oil production has been heading south and OPEC production has not been increasing for months now. With strong marketing team and proactive management as well as sweet spot of shallow water that Paragon is in we should be one of the first to pick up contract as soon as they start being awarded.

    But most importantly remember that 65% of the restructured company is given to shareholders something no other restructured company in oil sector has come even close to...

    So don't let the panicked shorts scare you off your shares. Hold on tight as this is already one of the biggest winners but future looks much much brighter and you should expect much more gains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fleet Status Report

    by xhonda94x Jun 13, 2016 2:08 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 13, 2016 6:12 PM Flag

    FSR contains some talk of extensions , maintenance, and en-route of previously canceled rigs for stacking; All and all a zero sum; This should not have a material effect on the share prices but the fact that now there are only 5 trading days to D-day should have a substantial effect and I won't be surprised if we reach $1.50-2.00 prior to the June 21st's court hearing. ; In my mind the closer we get to D-day the more shorts will feel pressured to cover and longs will get incited to add; after all both shorts and longs know well that the chance of the plan being approved by the court extremely high.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1-Since management is been involved in restructuring process they are "totally blacked out. Can't buy or sell".
    "anything anyone might see on a Form 4 would be vesting of shares with some shares forfeited to cover taxes".

    2- For the months leading to bk filing "in general, we've got a lot of MNPI (material non-public information) at any given time. For example, negotiating the Prospectus acquisition, negotiating the sale-leaseback, considering hiring advisors, then during the whole process of formulating/negotiating the plan. We've got insider during all this! Make sense?".

    I can add this myself that many at the company must definitely not be happy that they have basically been blocked off from trading Paragon's stock for the longest time....and yet this management is been shareholder friendly and fair/kind enough to manage, through tough negotiations, to attain 65% of the restructured company for equity holders...I would think that not only they deserved the bonus but that once finances stabilizes and contracts start rolling in that as shareholders we should all ask for a more substantial bonus for them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    From the horse's mouth !!! Told you so......

    by insider_expert Jun 10, 2016 10:02 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 10, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    That is a valid point; my take is that the management is prohibited from buying shares while undergoing restructuring and as for before ch11 was filed the management may have made a conscious decision not to buy knowing if they did those purchases would have been seriously questioned once 65% of the restructured company was awarded to shareholders; all just my thoughts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    From the horse's mouth !!! Told you so......

    by insider_expert Jun 10, 2016 10:02 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 10, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    I agree with your $5+ but for me I am looking forward down the road when more contracts roll in and company starts paying dividends once again.
    The correction gave me a chance to add some cheap shares this morning but I truly feel sorry for those long souls, not the day traders, that may have been shaken out of their shares in the past couple of days as I feel all us longs here have gone through much in this past couple of years and should watch out and support each other; I hope longs here listen to each other carefully and be proactive in their dd and searching out any developments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The following is an excerpt of an email sent to me by Paragon's IR yesterday in a response to my inquiry:

    "The Motion to Shorten is purely procedural in nature. It lets the court accept the shortened/redacted objection. There’s nothing to read into there.
    Everything is still on track for the hearing on the 21st. We continue to be confident that the judge will rule in our favor and the plan will be approved. It’s important to note that while our projections for a recovery in the industry go through 2019, we would really be able to repay or refinance as long as the elements of the recovery were realized by 2021, which gives us even more room. We, of course, have our own experts to refute the objection."

    Obviously the correction in share price of the past 2 days has been for completely baseless although it gave the true investors here to add shares.

    Disclosure: I am long the stock, have not sold any shares this year, and have been adding including this morning; Everything I say is purely my opinion and not an advice to buy or sell shares of this stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We had a similar day on May 27 when stock gave up green and even closed in red at 57 cents; I posted then that it was healthy for an upward stock to have days of backing a filling ...and look where the share price is today less than 2 weeks later; One should always remember that it is healthy for upward stocks to climb a wall of worry rather make big jumps without taking breathers...

    Having said that I think one reason the weak hands and day traders were shaken today may have been because of the objections filed by term lenders yesterday...My response is of course that first of all it was filed yesterday and many, including myself knew about it but did not see anything new in their latest objections filing as there were the rehash of the objections filed a couple of months ago despite of which Judge Christopher Sontchi signed off on an outline of restructuring plan paving the way for the creditors to cast their votes...

    The thing is that the more weak hands and day traders are shaken the better off the investors will be in reckoning days; It is worth noting that these folks don't do a proper dd and are usually sitting on fence and always looking out for any excuse to sell even when the excuse is a rehash of a two months old news.

    I continue to expect the plan to be approved by the court in due time and hopefully on first day of such hearing on June 21st and 100% intend to hold on tight to all my shares knowing what I know and after a near two years of very detailed and fundamental and no-nonsense research into this company and their culture and proactive management, the current oil market, the dollar's gyrations, fracking's substantial issues, the goldmine opportunity with some offshore drillers as the most pummeled segment of the whole oil sector, the OPEC's intentions and now desperations, and idiot Saudi's weakened hands and internal and economic turmoils (not to mentioned finally their exposure as the main force behind 911 as well as the murderous isis).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Going by the median equity value submitted to the court of $742 million (the upper end estimated actually at $988 million) the share price should get to around $8.62 although if the 35% shares given to bondholders is taken into account it would be $5.60...Mind you the equity estimate is based on oil price at the end of April when it was in 30's (submitted to the court on 4/19/2016)...I believe if we were to factor in the current oil price of over $50 and improved prospects of new contracts such as last month's with Awilco the current share price should be well into double digit area (provided the court approves the plan on June 21st or shortly thereafter).

    Disclosure: I am long this stock and have not sold any shares this year and all my posts are purely my personal opinions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1.78 by end of this week

    by wsrigged100percent Jun 7, 2016 10:23 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 7, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    Once over $2 margin buyers will get in and once over $5 the big institutions. Also recall the major short squeeze has not happened yet; In addition plan's approval by the court has not been built in as there are still many doubters out there. If oil keeps inching up, with or without a major contract over $5 is an obvious possibility sooner than many think as markets will anticipate contracts before it actually happens.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Longs don't get too excited but celebrate not because we hit $1 but because the long awaited ascend is just begun; As mentioned in court docs the equity value proved to the court is around $742 million with an upper amount of $988 million; Current cap still under a meager $90 million; We have a very very long ways to go; Again, this company is still cash flow positive and not only will survive the oil price down turn but will thrive and your shares if held one day will provide you a nice dividend.

    Disclosure: I am very long Paragon, have not sold any shares this year and have been adding including this morning. Everything I say is purely my opinion and you need to do your own dd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Remember only 2 week left to the court day of June 21st for approval of restructuring plan...The latest sudden talk of dilution is not but a ploy mostly by the same few shorts with multiple aliases. The fact is that you get 65% of the restructured company, by far more than any other company in the whole oil sector that is gone or going through restructuring, Of course that means 35% of the restructured company is given to debt holders but in return you'll own the share of a company with $1.1 Billion less debt; Also always remember that the current share price is only a fraction of what the shares were at less than a couple of years ago when it was at a double digit but had $1.1 Billion more debt as well....

    This is the opportunity of a lifetime and shorts are after shaking the weak hands so they can cover. DON"T LET THEM.

    And place a limit sell order on all your shares at $10 or more so shorts can't borrow them.

    2 more weeks and you'll be sitting on shares of the restructured company suited for very long term investment ; Saudis are wanting the oil price to hit minimum $60 before their IPO but no doubt they will get oil prices above even $60 after which new contracts will start coming in for shallow water drillers like Paragon and we may even begin seeing dividends early next year.

    Call Paragon and speak to Lee Ahlstrom with any questions you have.

    Shares now back above 90 cents after shorts managed to shake some poor souls hands...soon we'll be above $1, and $2, and ....Don't have doubts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pre pak

    by squeez62 Jun 4, 2016 3:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 5, 2016 6:41 PM Flag

    You really should be thanking the highly skilled, proactive, and fair minded management team as well as hardworking and dedicated men and women of this company; (Please note that this management team was for the longest time ripped to pieces and insulted by many right here and at the other message boards and at SA for no good reason )...

    As for new contracts I believe Paragon is well positioned to sign up new contract ahead of most other in the sector once price stabilizes around $55-60 or so. Why you ask? for two very important reason :

    1- Paragon has one of the best marketing teams in the sector to attain new contracts and nearly everyone in the offshore drilling knows that (their marketing team comprises of highly skilled men and women that had worked for Noble and others for many many years with an excellent track record) ;

    2- Most offshore experts agree that shallow water guys such as Paragon will be first in line to get new contracts and way before deep and ultra-deep guys because of the huge expense difference; This relative low cost plus Paragon's cheaper rates because of somewhat aging rigs makes makes them a prime candidate in this tough environment for upcoming new contracts...

  • Reply to

    pre pak

    by squeez62 Jun 4, 2016 3:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 5, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    No we are NOT both wrong; Only you are wrong. Whay you talking about is totally irrelevant to the company's EQUITY value...Also, the latest info is from April 19th and not your March 25th; Please read my previous post in this regards one more time....here it is again!!! :

    The followings is EXACT excerpts from disclosure statements filled with the COURT on 4/19/2016 by Lazard (to see the full disclosure go to http://www.kccllc.net/paragon/document/list/4207 page 53):

    "VIII.
    VALUATION ANALYSIS
    A. Estimated Reorganization Valuation of the Debtors
    The Debtors have been advised by Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (“Lazard”) with respect to the
    reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors on a going concern basis.
    Solely for purposes of the Plan, the estimated range of a reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors
    was assumed to be approximately $1,650 million to $2,075 million (with a midpoint estimate of
    approximately $1,863 million) as of an assumed Effective Date of June 30, 2016. The valuation analysis
    herein is based on information as of March 14, 2016 and is based on the Projections for the Projection
    Period. For purposes of this valuation, it has been assumed that no material changes that would affect
    value occur between March 14, 2016 and the assumed Effective Date. Lazard’s estimate of a range of
    reorganization values does not constitute an opinion as to fairness from a financial point of view of the
    consideration to be received under the Plan or of the terms and provisions of the Plan.
    Based upon the assumed combined range of the reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors of
    between $1,650 million and $2,075 million and assumed net debt of $1,120 million (assuming a debt
    balance of $1,408 million and a pro forma cash balance of $288 million as of June 30, 2016), Lazard
    has employed an imputed estimate of the range of equity value for the Reorganized Debtors between
    approximately $530 million and $955 million, with a midpoint estimate of $742 million. "

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pre pak

    by squeez62 Jun 4, 2016 3:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Jun 5, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    Sorry Alan but you are completely wrong; according to the disclosures submitted to the court late in April the book value's midrange is $1863 million; the $742 million you referring to is the equity value which is roughly a discounted 39% of the $1863's book value; and remember the $742 million is mid point and high point according to the docs is $ 988 million I believe...current cap of roughly $76 million needs to go up several folds, close to 10 folds, to even come close to the equity value estimates submitted in disclosure docs to the court by two of the most respected law firms in the country..,Good luck...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The followings is excerpts from disclosure statements filled with court on 4/19/2016 by Lazard (to see the full disclosure go to http://www.kccllc.net/paragon/document/list/4207 page 53.

    VIII.
    VALUATION ANALYSIS
    A. Estimated Reorganization Valuation of the Debtors
    The Debtors have been advised by Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (“Lazard”) with respect to the
    reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors on a going concern basis.
    Solely for purposes of the Plan, the estimated range of a reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors
    was assumed to be approximately $1,650 million to $2,075 million (with a midpoint estimate of
    approximately $1,863 million) as of an assumed Effective Date of June 30, 2016. The valuation analysis
    herein is based on information as of March 14, 2016 and is based on the Projections for the Projection
    Period. For purposes of this valuation, it has been assumed that no material changes that would affect
    value occur between March 14, 2016 and the assumed Effective Date. Lazard’s estimate of a range of
    reorganization values does not constitute an opinion as to fairness from a financial point of view of the
    consideration to be received under the Plan or of the terms and provisions of the Plan.
    Based upon the assumed combined range of the reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors of
    between $1,650 million and $2,075 million and assumed net debt of $1,120 million (assuming a debt
    balance of $1,408 million and a pro forma cash balance of $288 million as of June 30, 2016), Lazard
    has employed an imputed estimate of the range of equity value for the Reorganized Debtors between
    approximately $530 million and $955 million, with a midpoint estimate of $742 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I advise longs not to get excited and not to sell any shares as this stock has much more upside over the next weeks and months and has the potential to reach double digits before the end of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert May 31, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    Yet there is one very important matter to point out namely that nearly all experts agree that SHALLOW WATER PRODUCTION will recover first ahead of deep water and ultra deep water; This bode very well for companies such as Paragon who is a purebred leader in shallow water drilling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only 3 weeks left to June 21st when court will look into approving Paragon's restructuring plan. Should be very interesting and rewarding for longs as the shares could jump...how high? difficult to say...as it is the shares, right at this moment, are worth minimum of $6-8 per shares based on actual legal equity value range docs submitted to the court by two of the most respected legal firms in the nation...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SNE
30.66+0.27(+0.89%)2:20 PMEDT