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Dover Corporation Message Board

investor.gator 211 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2016 10:48 AM Member since: Aug 15, 2012
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  • Reply to

    This message board is as whompy as a Terdsla

    by keef.wivaneff Jul 17, 2016 6:27 AM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 17, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    Grudgingly, I've accepted the new board and begun posting there

  • Reply to

    Master Plan Theory....

    by donroband Jul 11, 2016 11:10 PM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    trz: "he is going to start a commercial mobility company"

    Yes. And Uber and Google are just going to stand by and watch, ceding their significant early leads.

  • Reply to

    Tesla Stock Price Up in Pre-Market...

    by investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 8:44 AM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    retire: "maybe Tesla will get an award for board governance"
    Those tedious board meetings are so much shorter when we all have overlapping interests.

  • Reply to

    Risks to the Short Thesis

    by who_is_your_pappy Jul 12, 2016 8:53 AM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    It is the hallmark of bull markets that stocks can blow past bad news.
    For a while...

  • Reply to

    Master Plan Theory....

    by donroband Jul 11, 2016 11:10 PM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    part of the 'huh' reaction to Jonas' idiocy is that TESLA only has about 100K cars sold to date. Sure, they have a head start spying on their customers, but not nearly enough of one to turn it into some sort of sustainable advantage.

    Once TSLA customers realize TSLA uses the connected nature of their products to seize accident data and blame the customers for accidents while obstructing investigations, I suspect the willingness of such customers to continue to be tracked will decline.

  • Reply to

    Master Plan Theory....

    by donroband Jul 11, 2016 11:10 PM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 12, 2016 8:54 AM Flag

    donro: Adam Jonas should have considered your much more realistic theory before spewing forth his own. Here's what he wrote in a note speculating on what the master plan would be:

    Source: Business Insider

    "And there is perhaps no one on Wall Street more equipped to muse on Musk than Adam Jonas over at Morgan Stanley. On Tuesday morning, he published his take on what the plan might be.

    In one sentence, Tesla is about to move from being a simple car company to being a commercial transportation company.

    Here's the key part of Jonas' note you need to see:

    "The auto industry is in the early metamorphosis from privately-owned model to a public transport utility. Exploiting the commercial opportunities embedded in 10 trillion miles annually (1.7 Light Years), 600bn hours of driver and passenger time (68 million years) and the associated content and data (for sale or analysis) may be worth a significant multiple of Tesla's current addressable market for car sales.

    We believe that Tesla's unique advantages in machine learning and lack of exposure to legacy systems (internal combustion tech, unconnected cars) provide it with an opportunity to tap into largera nd faster growing markets ahead of its competitors."

    ---
    huh? So TSLA is going to sell your private driving data? Or they're going to study it and monetize it? Or maybe they're just going to use the 'aggregate' data for the good of society while maintaining your individual privacy. Sure.

  • Investors like the SEC investigation report. Why? Once the SEC is done with its investigation, it will be effectively like a stamp of approval on TSLA's financial statements!

    Ditto for the NHTSA and NTSB actions.

    ***** The manufacturer of the world's safest cars also has the world's safest financial statements ******

    Buy more and vote 'YES' for the merger.

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 11, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    can the CLEANING LADY help you with your MEDS?

    1. taking the MEDS would help you UNDERSTAND THE VOICES in your head, and
    2. a) not FEAR leaving your HOUSE;
    b) step away from the SCREEN

  • Reply to

    REVISED Q2 LOSS FORECAST.

    by ibecars_30 Jul 10, 2016 11:32 PM
    investor.gator investor.gator Jul 11, 2016 9:09 PM Flag

    tks, coach. I am going to look at the first quarter 10q before making any estimates. My immediate sense is that the real disaster looms in 3q when the full margin impact of the "new" 60KWH model hits and the X backlog is burned off. (Of course the 5K cars in transit may buffer that.)

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 11, 2016 9:07 PM Flag

    Now that the SEC is (reportedly) investigating Tesla for securities fraud, there are a few likely implications. Even thought the SEC is focused on the narrow issue of the whether or not the AP FL death should have been disclosed to investors in the company's $2B offering last month, such investigations often cover other related in companies that have engaged in ongoing misconduct. This is the 'there's always more than one cockroach' theory.

    So...the implications:

    1) it's likely Elon will generally tone down his promotional statements (especially the tweets, his favored medium).

    2) whatever smoke and mirrors elon was specifically planning for this week with the master plan unveil is probably getting watered down as we speak. The added pressure of the scrutiny will not help his performance. Look for the event to be another in a series of events that cause observers to question Musk's sanity.

    3) PwC just gained tremendous leverage in their (presumed) ongoing battle with Musk over various disclosure and accounting practices. Look for a more fulsome 10Q. And read montana.skeptic's latest article to understand why such disclosures are essential

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 11, 2016 6:04 PM Flag

    Get out your green eyeshades, plunk down in your favorite chair and settle in for some in-depth reading. Seriously, don't miss this one.

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 11, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    mark z: " Maybe they had just finished dining at the Chinese Garden at 605 W Legion St. in Whitehall, MT "

    Ancient Chinese secret?

  • investor.gator by investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 10:06 PM Flag

    from the wsj:

    "At a presentation to Theranos Inc. employees last month, Elizabeth Holmes displayed a slide saying the company had developed 304 tests using small volumes of blood, according to an attendee.

    Left unsaid: Most of those experiments hadn’t progressed beyond laboratory research, according to the attendee.

    The slideshow was part of a pattern: Ms. Holmes has continued to put a positive spin on her embattled blood-testing company—while broadly keeping employees in the dark on many issues—even as Theranos’s regulatory and legal troubles mount."

    Theranos...cut from the same silicon valley, go big, spend money, whatever it takes mold as TSLA. These two are kindred spirits

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 9:55 PM Flag

    cbx6: "I'm guessing they are going to TRY and sell franchises as a way to get some free income ..."

    What an insightful post. Musk knows he's got a pool of easy money from retail (Model 3 deposits, e.g.). This would be a chance to go back to that well, albeit in a slightly different form. But in the end, such funding would still represent interest free, unsecured financing from unsophisticated investors.

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 4:46 PM Flag

    donro: "My bet..."
    I can see how elon would want to do that. Here is a straw man:

    1. Post transaction, "Cars" doesn't look much different than it does right now because (i) the GF never really got up and running to the extent it will in the future; (ii) Battery systems sales are de minims

    2. Post transaction, "Energy" (SCTY and the old Tesla Energy including the GF) looks like it's in a very tough spot financially. Key question include (i) how much of the TSLA debt, if any, would be allocated to Energy (use of proceeds for at least one of the debt financings was for the GF; (ii) how much cash would go to Energy versus Cars; (iii) what about SCTY's promise to build a big factory in Buffalo in light of the GF

    3. Would such a transaction trigger a mandatory repayment clause in some or all of the debt (either SCTY or TSLA)?

    4. Would the big shareholders like the deal? Fidelity, Bailey Gifford? They might be willing to go along with the merger, but would TSLA shareholders allow the GF and a once-promising product line to get away from them?

    5. Would TSLA shareholders (the new Cars business) get a stake in Energy (the old SCTY plus GF plus Powerwall/packs business). To me it feels like

    New TSLA (Cars business) = 100% of Old TSLA + 40% of Energy (old SCTY + Powerall/Powerpacks +GF)

    But could it be:
    New TSLA (Cars business) = 100% of Old TSLA + 66% of Energy (old SCTY + Powerall/Powerpacks +GF)

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    organic domestic. sustainably sourced buy a local farm-to-bar brewer that is a subsidiary of anheuser busch

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    Sounds like Musk's optimistic way of pre-announcing 2Q results and a *massive* restructuring.

    Comrades: your capital has always belonged to the state.

  • .....................TO THE GIGAFACTORY GRAND OPENING*.................
    .......................... *Gator Live Summary of the Live Blog..............

    ......You and a guest are cordially invited to attend the Gator live summary of the official event live blog
    ......When: July 29th, an hour or two later than the scheduled starting time
    ......Where: here on Yahoo

    ...... Virtual guests will imagine themselves dining on an opulent feast fit for a king (or an emperor with no clothes). French fry towers, sushi, open bar with top shelf liquor -- no SGA dollars will be spared!

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    me: "Imagine her surprise when she rushed past the security guard to confront the Chinese delegation only to discover she had barged in on a meeting amongst the Chinese, Indians and another country. The Indian delegation had earlier cancelled a meeting and told Hillary they left the summit and went home early. "

    I forgot to add one thing. Hillary is quite used to barging in on people and encountering unexpectedly awkward situation, if you know what I mean. But really...this one takes the cake.

  • investor.gator investor.gator Jul 10, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    metal: "From the UN: "As of 29 June 2016, there are 178 signatories to the Paris Agreement."

    For as much folly as these meeting represent, Paris ended up being somewhat of a high point (relatively speaking). Let's rewind to 2009 in Copenhagen. With the global climate change summit in tatters and representatives from nearly 200 nations wasting their time in ways you have so colorfully described, Hillary phoned Obama and pleaded with him to swoop in and broker a compromise that would get China, Brazil and India to serve as a lead for developing nations and agree to at least something in the way of a compromise.

    In keeping with the US's rapidly diminishing world standing, Hillary and Barack walked around the conference center until they found a meeting room where the Chinese delegation was holed up. Imagine her surprise when she rushed past the security guard to confront the Chinese delegation only to discover she had barged in on a meeting amongst the Chinese, Indians and another country. The Indian delegation had earlier cancelled a meeting and told Hillary they left the summit and went home early.

    What was billed as a success, a non-binding agreement to monitor pollution reduction standards and set a goal to limit the rise in global temperatures. Huh? To this day, Bill and Hillary's work in Copenhagen is considered...poor. Paris at least produced a "binding" agreement, although there is obviously much work to be done.

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