Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Affymax, Inc. Message Board

jagan1961 303 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 9:03 PM Member since: Oct 31, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 29, 2016 11:55 PM Flag

    BBEP's ops are not in one area, sprawling into multiple states, locations. That is both positive and negative.

    However their production volume of 55000 BBLS equivalent, is not small, one of the Major players. There are not many assets available for Buyout. So far the Ch 11 is filed by minor/gas players.

    For any acquirer BBEP's assets, reserves and infrastructure will add lots of value. For 3/4 BLN $ you can't create asset/infrastructure of this size and scope.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Conspiracy idiots

    by zooplankton200 May 30, 2016 8:25 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 2:02 AM Flag

    When the distressed unsecured Debt bought @10 cents on the $, we expect to get $1 for every 10 cents spent.

    There is nothing wrong for the Common unit holders who bought @10, looking to double or triple. Everything stems from the fact they declared 1.3 BLN $ as Equity comprising of 750 MLN of Common Unit Equity and 550 MLN of Prefered Equity.

    Yes Common Unit holders are at the Bottom of the Totem Pole and they do have a CODI on the horizon if there is a possibility the Debt cancellation. Being in the Bottom is always risky.

    I don't own common equity, Own 2020/22 Bonds and Series 'A' preferred shares.

    No one knows what is going to happen.
    1.1 BLN Bank Debt
    650 MLN Sr.Secured Notes
    850 MLN Unsecured Notes
    350 MLN EIG prefereds 'B'
    200 MLN Series 'A' prefereds - Both 'A' & 'B' prefereds both are identical rankings.

    My thinking is since B and 'A' preferreds are equal in rankings, whether EIG will walk away with 350 MLN $ Writeoff of their investment? If they are willing to walk away, then I don't mind in my preferred share loss.

    If I get paid on 2020/22 Bonds, I should be able to make more than my prefereds.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 2:14 AM Flag

    If VNR defaults on the Bond Payment, the Bonds will collapse below 10 cents on the $. Take long time to recover unless the GP/NGL prices moves fairly quick on the upside.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • How many will be willing to sell below the Par value? Preferreds were quoting @5+ even when they did not declare dividends. So many shorts are on this too.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Preferreds are fixed income securities just below the Unsecured Debt. There is no CODI.
    If any write offs the first loss go to Common shareholder/unit holders, then falls to Preferred holders.

    How much they write off that too after writing off 2.5 BLN in Dec qtr and oil has moved up from 25 to $50.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SUPPLY HAS DRIED UP!

    by j_ktttees May 31, 2016 10:04 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    I_k: The issue seems to be more to do with the Insider sales.

    That is huge, everyone of them sold during the last 15 days.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Unsecured bonds just traded

    by oldrover May 31, 2016 10:22 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Don't sell one share of Prefereds, accumulate as much as you can. These prefereds rank pari passu (except conversion to common equity) with 'B' prefereds which are owned by EIG. No way EIG will take a cut on these Preferreds. They will ensure they get the full value for their investment.

    How this is going to happen is anyone's guess. My buying into prefereds are (a) they rank the same with 'B' prefereds, (b) they took 2.5 BLN w/off in Dec 2015, if there is a write off if any it will be much less now, (c) BBEP is one of the major player - 55000 BOE / per day with mostly Oil is not a small quantity, an acquisition is still possible.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • They have 2 BLN of Notes including preferred debt. These costs close to $200 MLN per annum. The problem what EIG faces its 'B' Prefereds. That is why I feel a compromise has to be made to include their Sr.Debt in line with the Unsecured Debt, so that all Debts gets pooled for a stake in equity.

    As for as Common, yes there is going to be a write off (including the Losses for the qtr and this restructuring charges - I would say a 20-30 MLN $), it should be around 200-300 MLN$ net loss. Besides that I doubt they could write off much of the Equity, since the Oil prices has moved up substantially since Dec 2015.

    If the restructuring prolongs further, they could write off additional amounts, that is why a quick emergence from CH 11 is good for equity.

    I don't know what other folks going to do, with the rising oil prices, it will be good if they get out quick from Ch.11.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Redemption price of Series A Preferreds is $25/unit

    by j_ktttees May 31, 2016 10:47 AM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    There is no sane reason for anything in BBEP right now. Notes are trading @13 cents on the $.

    The biggest concern is they need to wipe off the 800 MLN equity which will take minimum of 4 Qtrs, @200 MLN Loss per qtr + restructuring charges.

    As of now, if they emerge from CH 11 by Sep 30th then you can expect a 500 MLN Write off (Loss to equity).

    2 BLN Debt (including Prefereds) + Accumulated interest = 2.1 BLN against 250 MLN of Equity.

    They can give 10% equity to common unit holders and 90 will be owned by the Debt holders (EIG will own 45% of the equity due to their 1 BLN investment)

    BBEP can once again grow and position themselves for a better future.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 2:02 PM Flag

    Look my earlier posts. The equity will go down continuously, due to Operating Losses, Interest payments.

    The Interest costs are not going anywhere, it gets accumulated including Preferred equity which is cumulative.

    Every 3 months they need to take out 150-200 MLN $ from the Common Unit equity.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • It is a very small amont (@2 cents on the $) and there is a cumulative interest too (close to 60 cents).

    Just buy and Do NOT TRADE. Wait till it comes out of CH11.

    Aligning with Big Boyz always helps the small frys like us. The Preferred listed BBPPQ and the series 'B' prefereds are identical and rank equal.

    Every investments has its risks, this one is risky but very very attractive.

    DO YOUR DD!

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 by jagan1961 May 31, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    Was around 10 cents and I sold 100K and sold it for $24 cents. Today it is over 60 cents.

    Their cost is $33 per bbl.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 4:38 PM Flag

    No, the common BV after this Qtrly loss will be around 2.50 (150 MLN Loss + you have the restructuring 20-25 MLN).

    Even one assumes you are going to get everything per BV( which will never be the case), it is pretty expensive.

    Preferred high up in the ladder is quoting @45 cents

    10*9.5 95 cents, till it touches 95 cents, Preferreds are cheaper to buy and hold right now.

    Of course the liquidity is low having only 8 MLN shares o/s.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    What is to get educated? It is all agreement btw various stake holders.

    How are they coming together? My Bonds are @14 cents, if I can get 50 cents I'm happy. If this is going to be part of a better more financially sound BBEP then I would like to be part of it.

    That is why no one is a winner, 2.1 BLN is the Debt, 210 MLN is the equity.

    If 90% goes the Debt holders and 10% with the Current Equity holders, you have just Bank debt, which could be serviced easily, you have the winner here. You won't have CODI too, since NO DEBT is going to be cancelled.

    With the moving oil prices, the Market value of BBEP will go up much higher.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Out of Court Resolution

    by j_ktttees May 31, 2016 5:33 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 6:30 PM Flag

    This is not a typical Ch 11. Reorg involves all parties. The Bank revolver debt is intact and they are not asking any change to it.

    Only issue with Bondholders and Preferred holders. 2.1 BLN in all needs to go. If everyone agrees for a conversion to equity, then they can come out of Ch 11 in a jiffy.

    A 90% to Debtholders on a Proportionate basis and 10% Common unit holders. They should come out of MLP structure like LINE did..

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Preferred Shares

    by marcusbrown612 May 31, 2016 6:44 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 7:06 PM Flag

    I posted lot on the subject, just read them if you need to know. That is JMHO!

    Do your DD!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Out of Court Resolution

    by j_ktttees May 31, 2016 5:33 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 8:04 PM Flag

    If they convert the DEBT and (NOT CANCEL) into equity I doubt CODI kicks in. This is what they need to do and keep the MLP status.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Final Order among Secured Creditors

    by j_ktttees May 31, 2016 7:35 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 9:00 PM Flag

    They lost around 116 MLN $ last qtr and sold Oil around 34 $ per BBL. with 78% hedged (balance 10 K BBLS), with the improvement in prices they can get an additional 4.5 MLN $ per month 13.5 MLN $ per qtr.

    Where will they go for another 100 MLN $. The 2 BLN $ (Other than Bank debt) needs to go as equity which will provide them another 40-45 MLN Per qtr, still they can't meet the ends.

    Still short of $50 MLN per Qtr, however with the cash flow they should be able to drill further and increase their production to generate more cash flow and distribute Cash to Unit holders.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 May 31, 2016 9:04 PM Flag

    There is a 1.3 BLN $ Equity, which can be wiped out just like that. May be 100-200 MLN write off, nothing more.

    EIG owns preferred equity and they are driving this one. They might have bought enough of Unsecured notes too during this time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • 45 days from now we will have a restructured BBEP, by first week we will have all of the details.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Hold

AFFY
0.0610.0000(0.00%)Aug 29 3:38 PMEDT