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Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

jagan1961 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 9:03 PM Member since: Oct 31, 1999
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  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 10, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    I don't want to respond to you, this is my last one to you before you are on IGGY.

    I don't get nervous, do own 2020/22 Bonds and preferreds. it is not like any other restructuring. They just filed it, not because they don't have cash, rather (a) Excessive pressure from WFC on their revolver - and industry trend indicates that, (b) They are trying to get out of leases and other fringe things and get the operations cleaned up.

    I've seen few companies Ch 11 filing, NONE in my experience took 2 months to get the 1st day motion passed, what does this mean? This means they don't need the money (DIP) right now, they have enough cash to run the show, just to prolong the Ch11.

    Once the lease and other issues are cleared, you will see a Buyout or asset sale happening. BBEP has too many assets to pay the Creditors and Bond holders, what they need is to sell off in an orderly way. By keeping this in CH 11, they can achieve all their objectives.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not even the first day motions have been approved. Debtor did not propose any restructuring document/ POR.

    They intend to retain the valuation as is only approved document is as at March 31, 2016. They don't intend to revalue any of the assets/ write downs, subject to loss for the April 2016 and restructuring charges, the Balance sheet remains intact.

    For a CODI the Creditors needs to agree for a Write down, why would any one in the right mind will go for a write down. Yes a conversion to equity is possible in that case, there won't be any CODI effect, since no debt is written off a DEBT to Equity swap do not involve CODI. If the Debtor is writing off assets then the net gain (if any Debt cancellation) will offset the Losses. Many Common Unit holders will have substantial loss C/F due to 2.5 BLN Asset write off last year.

    At 10 cents what the heck is already beaten down, what is there to lose? Max 10 cents and you will have plenty of time to dispose off if you feel there is going to be a CODI effect.

    We used to give respect however now it is time to put this moron on Ignore an move on folks.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Natural gas prices ended Friday at $2.987 per MMBtu – 12.2% higher from last week and the highest close since May 2015 – as successive below-average builds on the back of strong power sector consumption keep on cutting into the year-over-year storage surplus. Things were further helped by predictions of strong cooling demand with forecasts of warmer temperature across the country over the next few days.

    The commodity has rebounded strongly (by more than 85%) since hitting 17-year lows of around $1.6 per MMBtu in the first quarter. This has boosted shares of natural gas companies like Devon Energy Corp. DVN and Range Resources Corp. RRC, which have popped up more than 30% over the past 3 months.

    BBEP's revenue too should improve this quarter

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Folks, just take it FWIW. If you look at those filings, there are 2 factors one is their Liability which is Known, however their Assets as on that date (Just capital assets) is included here.

    Nothing with regard to A/R, unencumbered assets their Hedge Portfolio and many others are not shown. They need to file something to ensure the Liabilities are listed correct.

    They can't just write off assets, it has to be formally done and generally Oil & NG property valuations are carried out at Year ends (Dec 31) based on Federal Guide lines. If there is any from $25 Oil has moved up to $50 and NG from 1.75 to $2.85.

    We need to wait for the Jun qtr results from there we will know, at this juncture the 31 March 2016 valuation remains.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 9, 2016 5:58 PM Flag

    If you look at the ATHELON story "Athlon is one of the younger companies operating in the Permian basin, and has been primarily drilling vertical wells since its $363-million IPO in early August 2013. “This is a company that only IPOed about a year ago,” Mr. Meats said. “The shareholders are not going to be too unhappy with the 250% return they got in 12 months.”

    If they have 3 BLN barrels of reserves, obviously the acreage held by Breitburn too hold somewhat similar amount of Reserves. Encana is not saying it is proven reserves, possible reserves.

    BBEP added assets in Permian from the acquisition of QR energy, it paid mostly by way 72 MLN shares @23 $ per common unit, 350 MLN cash for redemption of QRE's preferred shares and assumed 1+ BLN loan.

    I'm in for someone buying BBEP out 100%, there is too much at stake and value here. There is too much value with BBEP. Bondholders will get 100% despite the current 20-22 cents valuation, Preferreds and common too will come out well.

    it is just a waiting game as of now, time will tell who is right.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Of course this is one of the costliest acquisition at the peak valuation.

    Acres 140,000 net acres

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Location Midland, Martin, Howard, Glasscock

    and other counties, Texas

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Athlon's current estimated production Approximately 30,000 boe/d (~80%

    including recent acquisitions liquids)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Athlon's number of producing wells as 1,121 vertical, 17 horizontal

    of Q2 2014

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Athlon's proved reserves 173 MMboe (pro forma for year-to-date acquisitions)

    I'm trying to compare BBEP's properties.

    Permian Basin
    No. of Wells: 3,164
    Gross Total Acreage: 123,277 - Total acreage is 13% Less
    2015 Avg. Daily Production: 12,322 Boepd (40% of ATHLON)
    Estimated Proved Reserves: 44.6 MMBoe (25% )
    Percent Proved Developed: 68% - Athlon's was 100% proved developed. They can increase it to 20000 BBOE per day.

    Considering the current Oil price scenario BBEP can divest these Permian assets for 1.5 BLN $ at the minimum.

    BBEP purchased the assets in a staggered manner, except the QRE acquisition in 2014, which of course funded mostly by swapping Common units.

    I'm still betting for a decent Buyout!

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 8, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    I did post initially, EXXON's XTRO energy and BBEP are partners. Definitely Exxon will be interested in scooping up BBEP's assets.

    Look at Today's unsecured Creditor's objection. The Permian Asset Valuation has gone up by 100% based on the transactions just occurred.

    There is so much value in BBEP and definitely Washburn is not going to give it away.

    2 things are very clear, the asset valuation is going up, the Major Players (integrated) players need assets closer to home to secure their Feedstock.

    Moreover they are not writing off their assets and sticking to April 30, 2016 valuation. Any restructuring is going to revolve around this valuation.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bond Update

    by yieldinvestor2015 Jul 7, 2016 7:59 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 7, 2016 8:18 PM Flag

    It was a 5MM trade 21.50 Sell and 22 Buy. Lots of Manipulation even in the Bond trading desks. If you know a buddy in another firm and if he has BBEP and you want to buy, you can request and he will sell it DFuto you. You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours theme.

    During the Oil downfall, some of the good ones were trading at 10 cents, though we could buy few, but major trades were carried out - Sold by Funds and bought by individuals in this manner. Someone made quick 300-400% in 3/4 months period.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Look at the filing today. That is good news, this is one of the indirect benefits of Ch 11

    If they want to terminate other leases they could do it easily now.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just look at the filing today for appointing Attorneys, each and everyone is questioned about their Holdings Common units and preferred units.

    None of the Officers and Directors want to get caught in the future and subject to SEC enquirers, that is the reason they all sold out. It has nothing to do with CODI and it is going to zero or $10. They can't own any securities and the negotiations are to be held at arms length basis.

    One should not have any concern about their sales.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are they Liars or Buyers?

    by zooplankton200 Jul 6, 2016 9:27 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 9:30 PM Flag

    First NO BODY is TRUSTING YOU HERE! Can you stop posting going forward?

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 8:04 PM Flag

    This is a quote from HAL,

    Hal Washburn, BreitBurn's Co-Chief Executive Officer added, "We are very pleased with this addition given the attractive acquisition metrics. We are adding production at a cost of approximately $60,000 per flowing barrel and we are adding estimated proven reserves for approximately $10.50 per boe. We are purchasing these properties for an attractive valuation and, with very little additional G&A expense, this deal will be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow per unit and will allow us to increase our quarterly distribution next quarter."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The amount is fixed as 4.3 BLN $ as at 04/30/2016 +/- few millions, on the valuation side they can't do anything here.

    A debt to equity swap based on the Current value or prolonging the Ch 11 discussion will occur. Not only EIG won't forego 380 MLN for some unknown future windfall (unsure of it) legally it is untenable.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 7:47 PM Flag

    This is from google,

    Depending on the permeability, pressure, the amount of free water and salt water and fracturing of the production Formations, some oil wells can preoduce for half a century or more. The "Indiana" and "Oil Creek " wells of the "colonel Drake" days (1859) are still producing as "stripper wells" A stripper well is a seepage hole that collects about 10 barrels a day or less. In NW Pa , there are still a bunch of plastics and paraffin using industries (several companies that produce scented candles Etc).
    Mom and Pop oil field stripper wells and some pumping wells are still all over the NW PA area and some of them are pumping oil from wells that are almost 100 years old.
    In other areas, like The Wst Texas or Kern County Cal oil fields we have wells that only produce for a few years to some that are over 50 years and going.
    When a well stops peak production, we can go back in and mess with the rock (making lotsa cracks so that oil can flow freely) we also can outfit the wells with gas (CO2 spargers, and hot water fluid extraction seystems to do wjhat we call "secondary recovery". WE can also go in and snake wells sideways around an old field and suck up the residual crude like sucking up the last bit of a milkshake.

    Ya gotta look almost at every well's production records separately

    URL: http://able2know.org/topic/145206-1

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 7:44 PM Flag

    If someone pays 40 K $ per BBL producing assets, these are developed and revenue generating assets

    @45 per BBL =15750 (350 Days production)

    Royalty + work overs excluding taxes @18 per BBL = 6300
    Taxes @8% = 1260

    Net cash flow = 8190 per Bbl of Oil per year

    These wells produce in excess of 10-12-15 years for them to recoup their investments. In fact way back BBEP purchased some of the assets @60 K $ (in 2007/8 period) plus paying for their reserves.

    All in all there is a huge valuation, these crooks are trying to underplay here.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just don't buy in to these arguments like 4 X EBITDA valuation and all. It is all pure shetty postings by Cheap fellas.

    The valuation is very simple:

    55000 BOE oil producting assets with 60% OIl and 40 % NG
    The valuation is 33000* $40 K per BBL = 1.32 BLN
    22000 * 30 K = 660 MLN $

    250 BLN BOE = 2.625 BLN

    That is the valuation you are talking about, on top of it you have Pipeline assets and Hedges. Do your Math.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Valuation - from Statement of Financial Affairs!

    by jagan1961 Jul 5, 2016 9:25 PM
    jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    The filing indeed shows they intend to retain the Balance sheet as is, without substantial reduction in Assets they can't wipe out the equity. As it stands a Restructuring will occur based on the existing equity valuation. As such the 2020/22 bonds are trading @20 cents on the $.

    We will have to wait and see. I don't expect one needs to worry about CODI since there is not going to be any debt cancellation, rather Debt converted to equity. If they offer a premium then CODI becomes a Loss for the Unit holders.

    @10 cents there is nothing to lose.

    With regard to BBPPQ as I've stated many times, the ownership of "B" preferreds by EIG and substantial ownership of 2020/22 bonds by Hedge funds makes it a very lucrative investment opportunity at these prices. The main reason why Management is not interested in writing off the assets is probably the above 2 factors. If they were forced, then they will sell off the company. EIG will take its own course, normally Hedge monkies don't have that patience, they need to make quick bucks and jump to another distressed assets. If they intend to sell 100 MLN of Bonds, there won't be any Market and substantially they will have to lower their offer price.

    If someone yells CODI right now, put them on ignore and move on. If BBEPQ substantially moves up then one needs to worry about the financial loss, if you were to sell, I would say if it crosses 50 cents or so considering the present 10 cents range.

    That is why the Preferreds seems to be a better bet for the long term.

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jagan1961 jagan1961 Jul 6, 2016 5:18 PM Flag

    Agreed $65-70 Oil is immanent. It could happen anytime, the ME and Nigeria Unrest is going to take a huge toll on the production.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both 2020/22 and preferreds will be converted to equity which will eliminate around $200 MLN interest payout per year.

    There won't be any cancellation of Debt, it could be otherway around. The Debt holders might demand a Premium valuation, the 100 Debt becomes 110, indicating a Loss to the existing Common Unit holders. Since the Management filing is firm, there is not going to be a write off to eliminate the Common Unit holders and Prefered unit holders equity, everything stays intact.

    Only conversion based on the valuation as of 04/30/2016 to equity for the Unsecured Bonds and Preferreds.

    I'm confident that both Preferred holders and Common Unit holders will come out well in this reorg, based on their Affirmation.

    GL!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Folks needs to look at the above titled Statement of Financial affairs filing and look into Valuation Para.

    They intend to keep the valuation intact as at 04/30/2016 and do not intend to revalue the assets, which implies the 4.3 BLN $ Assets are intact.

    Any negotiation with the Bondholders is going to happen based on this premise (subject to minor adjustments for restructuring ..etc).

    I don't think one should worry too much about CODI et al, you will have plenty of time to anayze once situation and decide one POR is filed.

    Zoop and others are creating unnecessary fear. @10 cents per share, there is nothing to lose. VRX was trading @250, today is under $20. That is the market.

    Zoo has an agenda here, we all know after secured Debt it is unsecured Debt, preferred then Common Unit holders. One need not get educated from Zoo to understand this basic investing premise.

    I don't like Robo I_KITTIES too, I'm putting him on IGGY list likes of NOMAD, CHUTNEY and JIM!

    GLTA LONGS!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ENZN
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