Caff, we can agree to disagree. I believe at $32 the stock was ridiculously overvalued. I also believe the current $10 fairly values the company for the opportunity it has. What it does with the opportunity in the next 2-3 years will determine the stock price. And as for the colonoscopy, the prep work is the least concern for the many people who refuse. It is the actual process of insertion of the tube/camera, just like the glove test for prostrate. You are vastly underestimating the numbers of men who refuse both. Foolish, absolutely. But they refuse. Every day.
Caff, huge numbers of men just flat out refuse a colonoscopy. Stool tests remain as a good, admittedly less definitive option. And Cologuard seems to be a step above the others in accuracy. So EXAS targets the people who refuse and thinks there are enough of them to make a decent profit eventually. I think realistically the stock can reach $20 within 3 years.
"I wish we could hear some information about the future of 8150 and stop dwelling on the past".
Caff, this is a perfect example of why the board is frustrated with you. You, not us, have the ability to pick up the phone and talk to management. You, not us, have the opportunity to TELL management that they are about to lose a bunch of long-time shareholders. You, not us, can tell them that they NEED to open up more about the future of 8150 to re-assure the investor base and do so SOON. You, not us can explain that the U.S. shareholders demand a buyback now rather than an overdue, and TAXABLE dividend.
And please spare me the rebuttal that you do not have that ability. When they contacted YOU to purchase in a shelf offering 10% below market prices, you gained that access. And with even THOSE purchases now underwater, you should have even MORE access.
Caff, OF COURSE this board has changed. How could it not? Management has shafted U.S. shareholders every single step of this conversion process, and the shareholders feel betrayed and angry. You are about the only one willing to give them a pass time after time, rather than using your clout as a major shareholder to contact Baupost and others to demand a better deal. YOU were at the big meeting in New York a few years ago. YOU were on the invite list. YOU are privy to the other large shareholders who were present. YOU have the ability to organize another meeting. Yet YOU choose to let them ram this #$%$ deal up or #$%$ and apologize for them. You picked up a tab for the Vegas group as you all congratulated each other on your investing brilliance, but you have done nothing since.
Caff, maybe I am just naive, but I believe it is not too late for us to convince SJ/SK that U.S. shareholders have been shafted at every turn and get a bone thrown our way. Personally, I wish Baupost would issue a public letter asking shareholders to back him and vote down the whole conversion. It is a terrible decision for us to give up our majority control of the company for the deal we are getting. I would vote to stop the deal and re-negotiate the terms, but not until AFTER a $100m accelerated buyback of IMOS shares.
If the deal DOES go through, as I expect, I will also NOT be selling quickly. After three tough years of business, many Taiwan tech companies appear to be forecasting strength. As cycles go, this has been a long and tough one. If we are at the cusp of a decent turnaround, I have the patience to let it play out.
IIG, Caff's latest response is more like an acknowledgement with a request for forgiveness of management.
"Yes, Jimmy, your wife cheated on you with your best friend last year then cleaned out your bank account last week, but she didn't MEAN to do it. She really means well and will try to be a better wife going forward. She's just trying to figure out this whole 'wife' thing. Just realize that all that is in the past and move on and trust her. After all, you're ALREADY married to her, you might as well just stay with her and expect her to change."
Caff, OF COURSE 8150 shareholders have no problem with SJ/SK, why would they?? Every single step in this process has benefitted them!!
As for your statement about the timing, you are dead wrong and you know it. Management absolutely gave a timetable at the outset then bumbled and stumbled along, delaying the conclusion several times. The delays caused them to miss the bulk of the tech rally and put the process directly into the headwinds of a chip slowdown, and even through 3 different Nasdaq corrections.
We understand that you have an allegiance to management. Very clearly you have been given priveleges abd information unavailable to us. You were even selected by them to take part in shelf offerings below market prices! But your credibility is gone. And you continue to support a management team that has done nothing in 3 years but DESTROY shareholder value.
Has anyone verified if the Asus deal is a per-unit revenue model or a licensing model? Big difference.
Best Buy is all about their private label business. Karen needs to approach BB about manufacturing their Insignia headphones and game controllers.
Regardless of WHO the new retailer is, a big wild card being overlooked is Gamestop. They have been Madcatz' biggest, most loyal U.S. retail customer for years. They have what, 4000 locations? And the gamers go there. They will certainly carry the new ARK line. If Karen can pull off the financing and manufacturing, this exciting new line could be a big Christmas hit and provide Madcatz with a q3 providing nearly half their annual revenues. Quarterly numbers of $15m, $20m, $40M,and $20M add up to operating profits.
Tabby, I have the conference call transcript in front of me, and no where does it say that management is "crystal clear" they will get the $8.3M. Confident, yes, but nothing close to a guarantee. In fact, listed as a "risk" at the top of the release is if they are UNABLE to get the 8.3. What IS made very clear in the call is that IF they get the 8.3 it will be at ZERO margin. Hopefully by now at least half of it is gone with agreements in place to sell the rest to Amazon and others.
Lolli, it is not Gamestop. She said it was a retailer that had not carried Tritton since 2014. My guess is Best Buy. Hopefully Target and WM will pick up a few sku's as well.
Tabby, the $8.3M in RB4 inventory will be at ZERO margin. That number is what they expect to recoup from the boxes in the warehouse. It probably represents about $12M in inventory that has already been written down to what they expect to liquidate it for. Think of that as nothing more than a transfer from dead inventory to badly needed cash.
Full disclosure: sold about 30% of my holdings after the last earnings debacle and will give Karen another year on the rest. Biggest holdings presently are HIMX and TSEM and building a position on TWTR.
X, i would be conservative at 10% non-RB sales growth and 25% margins.
And they seem confident that the $8.3M in RB inventory will be turned into cash by September. The one thing I wish was clarified was if that $8.3M in inventory was as of March 31 or as of TODAY. Amazon is still selling a decent amount of inventory, so if that number was as of quarter-end, a good chunk of it might already be gone.
Cheetah, your delivery stinks, but you have been on the right side of the trade for a long time. But if the market looks 6 months ahead, it sees Micron turning around. We agree earnings this month will be beyond atrocious, but it should mark the bottom of the cycle. Question is if the stock trades on the bad earnings or the improving outlook. Because they forecast so poorly, I am guessing that we see the 10's once more before the turnaround. And I will use that opportunity to jump on the 2018 calls.
Is anyone following these SEC filings? It now appears that Garrison Capital is going to foreclose and accept the assets of the company as payment in full. Then either they or an assignee (likely in the works for months) will take over, keep the employees and stay in business as a private company!!!
What an absolute, crooked system. They flat-out stole the company from the shareholders and will very likely get away with it. Now we know why there was still heavy buying even after their previous filings where they said the plan was to liquidate and wind down operations.
Does anyone know if casino slot maker IGT is still a licensee? On a recent trip to Vegas I noticed some of their slots using haptics. Probably another case where we spent 3 years working with them only to have them steal our tech and go ahead without us. By the way, the haptic effect was a nice feature and enjoyable to use with all the noise in the casino.
Caff, very clearly you have lost all objectivity when it comes to Sj/SK. This baffles me considering the vast amount of money and lost opportunity cost their actions have caused you. I will NOT get into a back and forth with you, I will simply state the fact that nearly EVERY stage of this conversion process has been structured to favor the 8150 shareholder and insiders over IMOS holders.. Your unwillingness to see and admit this astounds me.