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Lone Pine Resources Inc. Message Board

jeffffffffffrey 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2016 12:58 PM Member since: Dec 10, 2012
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  • Reply to

    1.96 and heading to bankruptcy

    by goskiing99 Jun 21, 2016 12:26 PM
    jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey Jun 21, 2016 12:58 PM Flag

    Are you expecting Bernie Sanders to win and fracking to be banned? Oil cannot go to $200. If it goes to $200 we will become completely self sufficient within NAFTA. If oil reaches $75 you will have massive hedging and massive increases in CAPEX.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    .99 a good entry point?

    by bigjohnson499 Jun 14, 2016 4:57 PM
    jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey Jun 20, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    I wrote call options on it that expired, so my basis is lower than you may think. Last time i purchased down to less than $1 but got called at $2.50, so yes i am down this time but i cannot complain too much. Good luck buying in bankruptcy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    .99 a good entry point?

    by bigjohnson499 Jun 14, 2016 4:57 PM
    jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey Jun 15, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    Not sure why you would be thinking of buying it in bankruptcy? Are you thinking about a legal settlement? If it goes bankrupt I wouldn't buy it because the current market wouldn't likely be enough to pay off the bank debt. If it doesn't go bankrupt and oil can make it into the $60s, it will be a very good investment. This is basically a call option on oil which (likely) can be extended indefinitely unless oil bottoms back into the $30's.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    MCEP was oversold technically

    by jemcekbruce Jun 6, 2016 2:04 PM
    jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey Jun 10, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    what would have happened if they did do the asset sale? what are your thoughts and/or expectations at the next redetermination?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    MCEP was oversold technically

    by jemcekbruce Jun 6, 2016 2:04 PM
    jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey Jun 10, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    Hi, you say "working with the banks". I would modify that to "working for the banks" because "working with" implies some give and take. The reality is that there was no "give" on the part of the banks as of yet and I wonder if it is foolish to assume there might be some further down the road. With their hedging we know that there is no possibility for MCEP to reduce its borrowings sufficiently (so what was the point of the reduction). A question I have is that assuming futures prices go way up at some point, will the bank at that time come in and bankrupt the company (wait for an improved outlook and then sell it off).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey May 27, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    I mean even with the hedging, they still make more when prices go up on those hedged contracts. I understand they need prices to go up no matter what.

  • jeffffffffffrey jeffffffffffrey May 27, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    I don't think you are exactly correct (I might be wrong though). I think they need $50M in proforma liquidity, meaning liquidity after the debt payment, meaning they need to pay down the $100M, pay the bond coupon, and still have $50M. With their production and mostly fixed hedges I'm not sure but I admit that I do not necessarly understand the collars. They need prices to go up right?

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