Why isn't the administration beating the PR drums a little? A positive press release now and then would at least stir the kettle a little, and put the name out there. The company image, and success, is not totally determined by quarterly reports. A little advertising effort might help the bottom line and the share price. Even a "stiff upper lip, good things are happening" letter would show some concern for the stockholders.
I agree, definitely poor management regarding disclosure to shareholders. This needs further investigation. Were large shareholders informed while small ones were left hanging out to dry?
I agree about the calls, have both Aug 22.50/17.50, plus sold Jul 22.50 puts a couple of weeks ago. All looking good.
Dumped my May 22.50 calls yesterday and today for a 52% profit since Apr 3 and 4. Probably early, but bird in the hand...........Still holding May 25 calls. First quarter earnings report will be released May 1, and could provide a nice price boost. Based on the past, dividend declaration should be Friday Apr 26 for estimated X of May 3. Historically, May 1 would be the exit day.
In sum, 0.10 rule adds 0.26 to initial 0.20 for a average total gain/period of 0.46 during the period since 2008. Over 60% annual ROI.
Finally got to JTP. Results in three divisions of single entry and exit per period below. Entry at your X+2 confirmed in all three divisions, but X-1 best exit for single trade/period. Divisions are: All 129 periods, 51 periods Dec 08 to present, and 15 periods Dec 11 to present:
ALL (129 periods) - average gain 0.12. 89 gaining periods, 40 losing.
DEC 08 - PRESENT (51 periods) - average gain 0.20, 39 gaining periods, 12 losing.
DEC 11 - PRESENT (15 periods) - average gain 0.19, 15 gaining periods, 4 losing.
Apparently I do not understand the rules correctly for JTP and JPS, as I get differences from your numbers. Here's what I have done for each period:
1. Entry near close of X+2 if PPS
Looks to me like you have done it again. Basic results for JPS follow. I hope to get to JTP tomorrow.
JPS - Averages of the full 129 periods approach the mean and do not give useful results for exit, at least in the basic look. However, X+2 entry is confirmed overall, and I used the past 52 periods (2009 to present) to look for an exit. Strictly considering one entry and exit trade, then exit at X-1 provides an average gain of 0.23 vs 0.17 for X-7. The X-1 exit results in 12 losing periods out of the total 52 periods (11 losing for X-7).
On average, X+2, X+3, and X+4 are virtually the same for the entire 52 periods. This is confirmed in the whole 129 periods also. This might provide additional fodder for an entry rule to reduce losing periods and increase gains. I hope to look at this closer after doing the basic for JTP.
I hope to look at increasing trades with the 10 cent rule also. Lots of numbers here.
You are right, of course, that the success of this play is related to easy money policy, as are many current investments, which is why one should monitor policy closely, always weigh risk/reward, and never bet the farm.
It is confusing, but there are two different X's involved. The buy point is 12 days after X number 1, and the sell date 5 days before the following X, (X number two). For instance, the last X date was Feb 6, so the buy date was Feb 22. The next X date is estimated to be May 6, so the sell date (if that X holds true) would be Apr 29. The holding period will be about 43-45 trading days. The holding period varies from X to X.
My experience is the same as Ray's regarding K-1's. Basically, my brain power is too limited to worry about profit and future tax concerns both, so I try to concentrate on profit and struggle with the tax consequences at year end.
NMM has a quarterly 12% dividend. Buying at X+12 and selling at X-5 would have produced an average gain of 1.29 per qtr over the last 21 quarters, with only 3 quarters losing.
My results were similar to Bow's, but a little less because I was late to the party with CFP and CLM. I tried both shares and calls with ARR and found the ROI 0.005 better with shares.
I followed UAN down and am at BE of 24.89. Looking for 25.50 plus before X-1 (about May 3). A potential exit point is the end of next week.
In it's short history of 7 dividend cycles, all have increased from last Friday's point in the cycle to X-2 by an average of 1.88. No losers......so far.