Yesterday lunch time. Typically the parking lot and restaurant is full and we have to wait for 10-20 people to get served first. This time, no line at all, and the place was barely 25% full. This is a long way away from the affected area in the NW so I'm not personally concerned about the food quality, and it was excellent as usual. Clearly the negative news has had a big impact though. I have no position in the stock and no plans to take any position long or short.
Those Destiny reviews are unreasonable IMO. It definitely doesn't meet the hype, the missions are repetitive, and the story isn't close to the "LotR" quality promised, but it's not worth 6/10 either. There have been many truly mediocre games with far less scope and content getting similar scores as Destiny, and that's not right. I've been playing it a lot this weekend and enjoying it. Like someone said on another forum, "This is the best 6/10 I've ever played." Anyway, weakness in Destiny should help CoD when the hardcore shooter crowd wants something new and BF Hardline and Evolve are MIA.
It's funny watching the analysts re Destiny. They've been falling over themselves to increase Destiny sales estimates and ATVI earnings ests since after their $500M PR. One fool even said it would add nicely to earnings because it's owned by ATVI so no royalties. Oh really?
Why buy XB1 instead of PS4? The PS4 is more powerful, third party games will alwaysblook and play same or better than Xbox, and they have more first party games.
I think Mattrick was "fired". He was a major public face for XB1 when it had a disastrous pre-E3 and E3, and then he was suddenly gone with no replacement assigned. He's done nothing at Zynga to earn his $50M there either.
CoD Ghosts sold in $1BN to retail last holiday season. To beat that would mean a penetration and repurchase rate of virtually 100%. That sounds optimistic, even for this board.
It got a big bump yesterday, presumably driven by the inside info that this news was coming. The game was already announced for Fall, now they confirm it for the latest they can before Thanksgiving, and it's already had a big run from this announcement, so where's the upside surprise?
By my count, NPD shows software is down 15% YTD. That will be offset some by increased full game digital sales on consoles. As you note, it'll be down this month and likely next month on GTAV comp. As I've said all along, the rapid sales of PS4/XB1's has been primarily to the hardcore gamer who was upgrading. Those people do not suddenly and magically have more money and time than before. That's why high console sales growth hasn't been matched by software.
OTOH, this was Pachter in February, and we're still waiting for the "unprecedented ramp" and "rebound" which will be "dramatic" with "double-digit gains".
"In a nutshell, we think that the rapid ramp in sell-through for next generation consoles will cause an unprecedented ramp in next generation software sales, and notwithstanding current generation software sales weakness, we expect overall industry software sales to rebound into positive territory later this year. We believe this rebound is not only sustainable, but we expect it to be dramatic in the back half of the year, with double-digit gains expected"
As usual with TTWO, it was insider info driving the price. Nobody ever complains about that when it's going up though.
The PS4/XB1 versions will sell well, but I think they'd sell even better if they had additional content (and I don't mean just songs and a couple of old vehicles), and giving away $1M with pre-orders seems high, because most of those pre-orders won't need to purchase MT. That's more than enough to buy the nicest apartment and have plenty left over.
Ironically despite being promised over a year ago, it looks like AC Unity will have heists before GTAV.
You admit you use alts, I say you use alts, and you say I'm making that up and lying about it. Strange. Maybe you and your alts all have different personalities too, and don't remember what each one is doing.
I typed the greater than symbol before 54M, maybe Yahoo edited it out. The point was, and again this should have been obvious, that you apparently thought I believe GTA+RDR had sold fewer than 54M lifetime. That's embarrassing, for you, because it's so stupid. When did Minecraft come out? 2009. I said it had sold more than those TTWO franchises since then. It's not that complicated, even for you. (or your alts).
Spec (and all your alts), obviously I know GTA+RDR lifetime 54M. And obviously I was referring to the last 5 years sales and profits, which was obviously the context of the entire post. Come on man, make an effort. If you put half as much effort into your posting as you did switching between your alts...
Now we know who is up-voting all Spec's posts and down-voting all of those posts disagreeing with him. It's Spec plus his alts. LOL, how sad.
Minecraft came out in 2009. You're saying GTA has sold 184M since 2009, LOL. Is that a fact or a lie?
Mojang's earnings are not "complete idle speculation", making you a liar. The last two years are public record, and so are TTWO's. For you to say anything said about that is "inaccurate" implies you have all the data, so go ahead and share. Or were you doing "complete idle speculation" when you said that?
"MS is buying Mojang for one reason: The Minecraft IP"
That's funny because earlier you attacked me for saying it's a positive that they have low expenses. The point of that was they can acquire the IP then put their own people to work on it (like Halo and Gears) without the added overhead of dealing with prima donnas or paying to acquire then paying to fire thousands of people, which would be very expensive.
My suggestion for you to put some effort into your posts since you are here 24/7 fell on deaf ears I see.
Mojang has much better margins than TTWO.
Mojang has much lower expenses than TTWO.
Mojang has sold more units of Minecraft since its inception than TTWO has of GTA + RDR combined.
Mojang may well have earned more profit in the last 5 years than TTWO.
Mojang had profits of $129M last year and I'll bet it's expecting more profits than TTWO this year. Those profits would have been doubled if you excluded their royalty payment to Notch (call it "non-GAAP...).
MS can acquire Mojang with off-shore cash.
Since you bring up Mojang, this big acquisition probably means MS buying out TTWO is not on the table. EA looks unlikely. ATVI last hope for buyout rumors?
I see. So the buyout rumor was already on Wall St you claim. Strange that the stock was down 1% on low volume the day before Hickey's report. And according to you, since Hickey had nothing to do with the pop, the stock would have been +5% on huge volume that day anyway, even if he'd done nothing. That's laughable. I know you don't like to set a high bar for your posting, but come on man, you're here 24/7 so at least make an effort.
P.S. The day before Hickey, TTWO was down 1% on light volume, the day after Hickey it was up 5% on huge volume. Hmmm, I wonder when the rumor started...
You mean the rumor Hickey probably started, in his report which sent the stock up 5% that day. The only difference between the day before and that day, was Hickey and 5%. And you can't see that, amazing.
You don't think Hickey had anything to do with the 5% jump on 8/29? Really? Then what was it? TTWO was green on 6/26 too with the Nasdaq red, also coincidence I suppose.
6/26 Hickey upgrades TTWO with Evolve hype.
8/5 TTWO delays Evolve out of holiday season.
8/29 Hickey pumps TTWO on random buyout speculation, doesn't mention Evolve, doesn't mention ATVI's debt, doesn't mention Kotick's history with the uppity IW leaders who wanted creative control over their own product... Housers?
Next business day, TTWO files to raid another $118M for its insiders, from 5M more shares dilution.
"Equity is a major component of our compensation program", as they simultaneously in the same report boast of their non-GAAP results!