I do like the recent pattern, although I do not understand charts and technicals at all. It looks like we make a major push, settles back a little, solidify the position, get back to the previous high, and another major push. To me, it looks like for every settle-back, there are more buyers coming in so that we get to move up more.
Not sure what is behind what we can see, but I hope something real! But could it be month-end true up for the short positions?
On a normal day this would drive SIMO up by $1, but not today. It is silly especially when Asian market already started to recover as people there realized that Brexits do not impact their lives that much. Same is true for smartphone and PC sales as Europe represents ZERO growth and are not SIMO's target market in any meaningful way. It is people like Soros who wants everyone to believe it is the end of the world so they can profit from fire sales. I just added a little more since it is an easy 10-15% upside within 3-4 weeks.
Laptop sales in Q2 was forecasted to growth some 30%, so if we have another sequential Q-over-Q growth for Q3, it may become more likely that we see SIMO in $55-$60 range this summer.
Digitimes Research estimates that worldwide top-5 notebook brand vendors and top-3 ODMs both enjoyed 31% on-month shipment growth in May because of preparations for new notebook models and growing demand for Chromebooks.
Don't make it too difficult for him when you already know his knowledge level on this space. We need short-sellers like him so can pop even higher.
I look at the latest from TSMC and MediaTek more as an indicator of general sector health, not specific to SIMO. SIMO is too small to drive its revenue itself. It depends on smartphone and PC. A smartphone growth recovery and a stablizing PC seem to be happening right now which is the best SIMO can ask for. If MediaTek grow 30% in Q2 (mostly because Chinese smartphone OEMs), that is a strong indication on how well SIMO eMMC will fare in my mind. It also supports why TSMC has full utilization, as 16nm is mostly used for APs.
So all these external bits and pieces makes it looks more and more likely that 2016 will be a 30%+ revenue growth year for SIMO.
MediaTek has been lobbying officials at Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) for approval of its recently-announced cooperation with NavInfo including plans to set up a joint venture with the China-based digital mapping service provider, as well as to lift a ban on China's investment in Taiwan's lC design houses, according to a Chinese-language Liberty Times report.
This looks more and more like a semi conductor cycle going up now... Others are talking about whether SIMO will touch $60 in 2016 so here are my 2 cents: If SIMO blows out Q2, which is getting close to be certain when looking at players like MediaTek, I think SIMO will touch $55 sometime in July. If SIMO guides double digit for Q3 and flat Q4, I think we will see $60 within weeks, if not days thereafter.
It looks like a systemic recovery and we may be able to see better results for PC, Android smartphone, tablet, and wearables acrose the board. I rhink the probability is getting higher for another SIMO blow-out in Q2
"The production value of memory chips, including DRAM and NAND flash, in Korea slipped below KRW11.50 trillion (US$9.66 billion) in the first quarter of 2016, due to poor end-market demand as well as falling chip prices, said Digitimes Research. Despite a recent pick-up in demand, prices, particularly prices for DRAM, continue to slide limiting the overall industry output value growth."
So unit grow is the only driver, and unit growth has to be higher than 5% to compensate decline in ASP. That is even better for SIMO.
Apparently SIMO is putting it putting it up together with the 2258 3D TCL controller. This likely means we will see models with PCiE SSD this Christmas for PC laptop brands. The growth continues!
Please go ahead and bet. A friendly reminder - based on my count, most of the comments here are by a small group of investors who have been with SIMO for years and have a reasonable good understanding of the flash/nand/DRAM industry value chain and its players. Your comments does show you have the level of understanding. That does not mean you will lose because many win for the wrong reasons and you may be one of the lucky ones.
SIMO has sustained its ASP and GM for the last decades. Memory technology moves into the next generation every 12-18 months and every time it does so it gets more difficult for control. This is NOT making T-shirts.
SIMO is forecasting nand shortage 2H/16, but I doubt that they would be impacted too much as they partner with nand producers mostly. Their competitor on the other hand might not fair as well. But a nand shortgage would be good for mid-term because we want chip players such as Hynix and MU to expand (and they are on capital investment diet right now) because a healthy capacity surplus puts pressure on pricing and helps to take market away from HDD. WDC might not be as compeititive as Hynix because SNDK's nand partner Toshiba is in accounting scandal and is short of cash to invest.
By the way, it sounded like we might see a dividend increase in the coming quarters. Sweat!
In a few years the Chinese internet companies will surpass many of their US piers, and the Chinese e-commerce will probably do so even faster. All of which bodes really well with their Shannon purchase.
On the SSD side, the WDC purchase of SNDK is the most concrete evidence of how desperate the HDD players are.
Finally, SIMO's partnering with Hynix looks even more smarter long-term because Hynix is a partner but Samsung is a competitor with its customers but the next big smartphone players are from China, most likely Huawei, followed by Xiaomi and Lenovo who do not in-house flash. As they, especially Huawei, is kicking Samsung's butt with double digit growth (some even in the mid-high double digit growth), it is very easy to see how Hynix grow faster than market. Competition within chip industry also puts a lot pressure on nand price which does not give Hynix leisure to invest in controllers of their own.
As a result, I think SIMO will touch $60 in 2016. Any thoughts?