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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN Message Board

jmcvicker 863 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Build rate.

    by jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:19 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    USA. Read the forums. They are in English. 91xx was delivered in silicon valley on 6/30. Math says they build 3000 MX in July. It will have to be a very busy Aug and Sept.

  • Reply to

    Well, here we dig again.

    by happyperson_1 Jul 4, 2016 10:39 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    I don't think the big funds are smart enough to act. They react only to company news and not research.

  • Reply to

    Build rate.

    by jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:19 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:28 PM Flag

    Another one, 113xx due for delivery late August. So, how do they pull off 20,000 sales in Q3 and 30,000 in Q4 with the backlog of X apparently caught up by end of Q3?

    --------

    Confemed my order 90D 6 seater early Jan this year. Just got my vin 113xx about 3 weeks ago, still says in the queue. Haven't heard from my DS after emailing him but the manager at one of the Tesla stores we frequent said it's looking to be late Aug early Sept. At this rate I'm not sure.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:19 PM Flag

    i don't get it. I have seen model X with Vin numbers in the 8000 range, up to 8500 on the lot. Then I read the august delivery thread on TMC. Does this mean they will build only a few thousand Model X between now and later in August? A few other posts there have vin 121xx beginning build in early August. What is going on when they say production will be 2200 in Q3? Also, this guy ordered in June and has a model X vin already and the number is 123xx. Where are the 30,000 pre orders? What is going on?

    -------

    Ordered 6/15, confirmed 6/22, got VIN 123XX sometime between 6/26 and 7/3. (Didn't check mytesla during that timeframe)

    Last I heard from DS (before receiving VIN) he told me to expect a September delivery.

    Is it September yet? Haha

    Anyone else ordered and confirmed around the same time as me?

    75D. Pearl White, 6 Seat. PremPack, AutoP.

  • Reply to

    This short settle the "Bashers" a bit

    by oil_philter Jul 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:11 PM Flag

    For every week in the quarter? How many idle weeks for retooling to help get to 50,000 in H2? Do the employees know how many overtime hours are expected?

  • Reply to

    This short settle the "Bashers" a bit

    by oil_philter Jul 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 6:09 PM Flag

    May 5 q1 financial release and conference call. 17,000 sales and 20,000 production was still guidance. But they would have known then those were unreachable. Why not say something?

  • Reply to

    Evaluating the 14,730 Cars Delivered

    by oil_philter Jul 3, 2016 11:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    It just hit me. They already offer 24 hour demo drives now. I would expect to see Tesla stock enough MS60 during Q3 into Q4 to offer an advertising campaign scenario of publicly announced overnight or weekend demo drives of the MS60s. And once people spend time in them, they are likely to buy versus a test drive. It also lowers the need for an active salesperson. Maybe even no need to pay commissions. Just offer people a sign and weekend test drive campaign. Once the lots are full of spec builds, they can get the referral campaigns going where owners bring their friends to the lot and borrow one for the weekend to see how it feels. Subtract money for age and miles on the clock and then offer a deal to the possible buyer. It is about the only way to get to 50,000 unit sales in H2 other than confirm and exhaust the entire Model X backlog. The bigger they get the more of this they will have to do to get more sales.

  • Reply to

    Model S ======= 9,745 sales ????????????

    by kbodie77777 Jul 4, 2016 11:00 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 3:06 PM Flag

    the TMC order tracking shows a huge number of 60 models in terms of percentages against other people who share their order information. Seems people are being reasonable and ordering the cheaper car over the 75 and 90 and P90 models. Some in LA know that the warm weather and spread of superchargers is good enough to make 60 ownership smarter. The more 60s sold, the less margin and revenue. I can see why they stock loaners as P90D so they can try to turn those into sales at-discount at quarter-end.

  • Reply to

    This short settle the "Bashers" a bit

    by oil_philter Jul 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    Yes, the Model X backlog supports near term 2600 a week. But for how many weeks? I also believe they craft sentences with multiple meanings using vagueness on purpose.

  • Reply to

    2013 P85 ==== $46,888

    by kbodie77777 Jul 4, 2016 2:44 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    $115-120k. I saw a $91k MS 60 back at the end of 2013 on the sales lot. Ouch.

  • Reply to

    This short settle the "Bashers" a bit

    by oil_philter Jul 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    Just because they say they can produce them doesn't mean they have the orders of interested parties to match the output. They never print the incoming custom order rate any more and disguise their own internal order process in the "45% increase" number they gave for Q1. Not indicating if it also included needed refresh ordering for the new front end fascia due out in early April. They knew they needed to push out a bunch of new looking loaners to the world and would have smartly set up a whole lot of demo marketing cars for that during Q1 with staggered delivery to service centers through Q2. I want to know if we can ever hear how many actual customer orders come in during a quarter excluding internal orders within the company.

  • Reply to

    Who cares about TSLA production target?

    by philstrong1995 Jul 4, 2016 8:39 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    Shipment includes cars already there. Includes inventory. Includes marketing cars. Includes customer cars already at service centers before 6/30 but undelivered by end of day. Includes cars on trains, train yards, ships, shipping containers off ships, in Holland Awaiting final assembly there, in lots at Tesla HQ.

    None will be quantified as to how much of each. There were May built inventory and marketing cars at my local Tesla store in numbers enough to show that they built many inventory ahead of paying customer orders. And they keep holding back making Model X in earnest. They should be making 1500 Model X per week now.

    I expect a factory retooling shutdown any day now to "prepare for the 50,000 in the second half". Then they can blame that for the shortfall like they blamed retooling in 2014. If they didn't reveal the D soon after the retooling, the company would be hurting very badly right now.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    Exactly. One guy on Youtube was saying he wants to have a new feature added so that pulling the stalk back takes you to "a user configurable amount of miles per hour over the speed limit". If signs say 55, always add 10 or 15 or 20. user configurable.

  • Reply to

    Can't be very important to meet forecasts

    by retire_yung Jul 4, 2016 7:05 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    The 5000 in transit cars is an unverifiable number for anyone outside the company. Trust it if you will but it has no accounting firm signing off on until end of year full year audit.

  • Reply to

    70%+ increase in production year over year

    by rottenharry Jul 4, 2016 7:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    Clarification: Musk said 40% were Model X, so it matches bystander views who did tours.

    Vin # issuances in May/June were roughly 1000/wk. So, it's strange to hear that they were running 2000/wk unless it was for a couple weeks and it is being extrapolated.

    I suspect they continue the 2000/wk situation once the factory opens again July 6 - however, this will eat up the MS backlog fast and they will need to sustain over 1000 Model X per week to keep the 2000 going. Will be interesting to see if they give any hints on remaining active reservations / confirmations for Model X.

    My Tesla store has nearly 20 Model X on the lot. Why weren't many delivered in Q2? Why overwhelm the store at the end of the quarter with ongoing "pushes" that Musk said were not going to be done anymore on a prior Q&A call. They say one thing, do something else. Let's see if things change in Q3. I guess by staging inventory and marketing cars now, they can sell those during Q3 and work primarily on building customer cars again in July. Never let the backlog get close to being built down... Always make customers wait because they talk online about this wait as if it were a right of passage, like the wait for HS prom. If their cars were given Vin # and then entered production the next day or two - then backlog would "appear" to be gone for the Model S side of the house and that would be bad for investor "color".

    The highest Vin # for Model S is in the 150xxx range. They are already building cars in the 149xxx range and one 1497xx got a vin # on 6/27 and entered production 6/30. Another 1494xx on 6/24, went to production 6/30. They are close to being close to winding down the actual customer backlog, it appears. I wonder what happens next? More games such as the referral game? Discounting if you have a Model 3 reservation?

    I'd really love to learn the actual customer order quantity per week for Model S and Model X - EXCLUDING inventory and marketing car orders from HQ and the sales offices.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    When visiting the east coast of the USA - I have found this year's temperatures to be fantastic, even cooler than usual. Also, where are all these hurricanes that people talked-up (ahem, Al Gore) with climate warming? There has been a dearth of USA-hitting hurricanes the last few years.

    Imagine we find that one day, albedo is leaking water out of the atmosphere into outer space? I think what we have going for us now are slightly longer growing seasons, ability to enjoy the outdoor climate longer into the fall. We need far stronger growing seasons to feed "all these people" that keep having babies on this planet.

  • Reply to

    Evaluating the 14,730 Cars Delivered

    by oil_philter Jul 3, 2016 11:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    Ignore facts, hype has no room for the rational.

  • Reply to

    Evaluating the 14,730 Cars Delivered

    by oil_philter Jul 3, 2016 11:33 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    Read the financial documentation. Recognizing revenue (and it can be construed +1 the car delivery count) happens in multiple ways including "that the transaction is reasonably assured". People on TMC have reported working with their DS to "pay for the car this quarter so it would count as a sale" even if delivered in the following month. The Tesla employee told them it would be counted as a sale.

  • Reply to

    70%+ increase in production year over year

    by rottenharry Jul 4, 2016 7:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:04 AM Flag

    Production doesn't matter. What matters most is the customer order rate. Which is unpublished. Orders for Model X came in from Feb 2012 through now. People who ordered Model X early in 2016 are actually getting their cars built during Q3. If you know logistics and order processing cycles, this indicates that they are "catching up fast".

  • Reply to

    2Q conference call

    by charlieml1 Jul 4, 2016 12:03 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 4, 2016 8:02 AM Flag

    Model S production is really statistically similar to Q1, perhaps 3-5% more. And it appears a lot of inventory cars were part of it.

    The production increase is due to the model X.

    Q1 2015 production 11160
    Q1 2016 production 18345 64% increase on the whole.

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