when deliveries are lacking to end Q3 and guidance looks meager for Q4. They may build thousands more MS60 and line the roads at Tesla shops but we know the primary buyers are those constant upgraders who are on their third unit after three years. Tesla has about 5000 Model S inventory cars in lots, in use by employees, loaners, future loaners and in transit. Many old fascia they can discount further. Might do 18000 total sales in Q3 and will have to repeat last year's fire sale to dump a total of 22000 in Q4. 50% growth ain't happening this year.
Good view. Congrats.
If you were looking at the data forming from the inventory car spread and the vin number gaps they are filling in from the tracking data, you would have run away faster than you did. I think some of us here are doing far more research than fund companies who hold 10 Million shares.
In a supply and demand economy, if they are selling faster, they would simply raise prices. If they are selling twice as fast as other types of cars, then the price is too low.
Do they usually "sound unusually robust" prior to end?
I remember Solyndra trumping out a $2 Billion backlog just months before they folded.
Unit sales above everything else. Losses? They know the market doesn't care about losses. It's about making unit-sales and looking impressive. Kind of like a peacock. Lots of noise from those buggers.
They built a ton of P90D inventory cars in Q2 and plopped them out in the field. They will put thousands of miles on them and sell at deep discount at the end of the quarter. Large number of P90D cars through Europe, Canada and USA which seem to have been conveniently ordered at the end of March and Feb 19-21.
Watch for tons of inventory vin #s in the range of 1348xx through 1378xx.
These would be the new fascia replacement inventory that seems to have been pre-ordered in Q1 for rollout into Q2. This is a good chunk of the "45% more Model S ordered in Q1."
Doing some data anysis today. Very interesting how they came to the 45% Model S order increase for Q1 statement. Love those P90D inventory cars flowing out into the wild now.
The "jobs created" is a creation of the BLS. They use small business birth/death models (create/close of business) for much of it.
Employed people according to the actual numbers rose 67,000 in June.
Unemployed rose by 347,000
Not in Labor Force dropped -191,000
This report isn't actually as good on the aggregate as the May report.
Improper wording is misleading. The dominate applies to one thing - the lower number of days to sell. Not quantity.
Looking at the secondhand market, iSeeCars.com zeroed in on 2.2 million vehicles from model years 2013 through 2015 that were listed and sold in the first five months of 2016. Compared to the 42.5 average days for a gasoline car on the used market, electric cars took just 29.2 days to sell.
They said "orders". And I believe they meant to say "orders". The word "orders" implies cars were ordered. And yes, they were ordered during Q1. next question...
Not qualified orders such as "unique customer orders destined for different named customer". That's too many words.
US agencies typically multi-source big purchase. They have always done that and it is to keep from being out of product should one supplier go out of business. Plus, they write out-year contracts so that the supplier knows that they have a steady income stream. I remember a federal purchase of PC computers back in the early 1990s. They contracted for five years to purchase 80286 computers. The same computers. For five years without regard to new chips coming out, upgraded equipment such as hard drive size, memory size, etc. Wonderful thinking there. When 80386 came out, when Mhz speeds went from 33 Mhz to 100 Mhz, they were still buying 20 Mhz 80286 based computers.
At the consolidator, did you see all those P90D out there in inventory in Europe, Canada and the USA? Looks like they were ordered up as inventory by Tesla themselves during Q1 when the "Model S orders were 45% greater than Q1 2015". It seems easy to quote an order statistic if they do a lot of that ordering in Q1, build the cars early in Q2 and ship them to sales sites - ahead of paying customer orders. Quite a few of them, Canada especially, have Vin #s that just so happen to line up with a lot of real customers who got their Vin # assigned on 3/30/2016, the last day of the quarter.
I didn't realize how many people impulse buy a $120,000 car out there around the world. I figure they sent all those to Canada for the NHL players who were coming home to Ontario and Quebec after making millions entertaining us on the ice. Trouble is - many of these inventory cars piling up in these locations - haven't been sold in Q2. So, they could have made hundreds more of customer cars and gotten them there in time for Q2 sales.
"Most crashed EV in the EV industry" (tm)
"Most repaired EV in the EV industry" (tm)
what would be the third in series?
Larry the Cable Guy is what happens when you add marketing and planning to a regular old stand-up comedian. You build a market for a product. There are far better comedians out there - but I bet Larry is wealthier than 95% of the MBAs who come out of Wharton.