You can't justify Tesla by trying to justify Amazon.
You can't justify shoplifting because your neighbor steals cable.
It is what it is - but doesn't make it right.
Many markets (from $50 monkeys to the US, Japanese and Chinese) stock markets are primarily built upon "future economic growth expectations". No market is at the levels they are because they expect flat future growth.
That is the issue - one day, Amazon, Tesla, SUNE, PETS and BLDP will and/or have stopped growing.
Any economy that requires constant growth in order to survive will eventually do neither.
Remember when they said powerwalls were $3000 and Powerpacks were $25,000?
Well, on the powerpack configuration page, they show a price of $47,000 per powerpack. Excluding installation. Now, the $25,000 was supposed to be "to distributors". How can Tesla offer a final price if they are simply selling to distributors? And is markup "keystoned" such that the price is not 25k but nearly double?
Can someone explain the much higher price of the powerpack? Many would want one at $25,000. But now, is it really $47,000 and is that due to the rich incentives from California and New York that nearly pay for much of the system? Could it be that the quoted price of $25,000 was "after incentives"?
This is a good question for the ER Q&A.
False claims? We'll have to wait and see. Tesla has the Vin #s of crashed Vins and certainly can contact owners to review why they crashed to "prove" their side.
How different does making an "assumption" differ from say a Jonas or James yacking up "will add $70/share additive" without substantiation? Or Chowdhry saying the GF is "worth $50B" without showing his work? Generally, everyone in this trade is lying on their own side to some degree hoping they are right. That's the primary problem with TSLA - there is more clash due to personal bias than reality. It's why people like Mr. 420 is here defending every post.
I think Keef is on to something - however, what has to be done is some level of verification of why the accidents happened, why a wheel fell off, did they actually hit something?
I remember seeing a Model S with left rear wheel broken off in traffic around the NYC area. Apparently the guy hit a pot hole back then. That is not suitable for sustainable transportation. The aluminum suspension may be trouble for such a heavy car and needs some engineering review "from an outside agency" to make sure that it is a viable design. Holding up at the smooth drag strip doesn't mean it will hold up in consumers' hands when a few bumps come up. And if steering knuckle issues are there that are exacerbated weather conditions, it's time to have professionals review and sign-off on their findings and present to the public.
Not over yet - seems like the reviews are just being started.
However - question for all "analysts". Why have sales in Norway slowed? This is a country which is a haven for EVs and sales are well down from 2015. Are they acting as a culture due to findings of cars that have aged in their environment?
There are also psychological differences between someone who is "disengaged" from an action and someone paying attention. Being quickly "drawn back" into paying attention requires someone to survey the surroundings and figure out what is happening. Someone paying attention is already preparing alternatives to the current scenario. It would be like taking someone off the bench who is resting and putting them into a football game while the PLAY IS IN PROGRESS. Emergency reactions take much longer when someone has to "review all information and then act" rather than having short term memory already engaged and processing - such as while driving and scanning the environment.
Ever doze-off while driving at night? It is called "micro-sleeps". You may "jump" back into consciousness after a half a second of actual drifting off. We've all done it. That jump requires you to resurvey what is going on because for a short moment, you are unaware. With autopilot, you may be focused elsewhere. iPad, texting, talking and waving hands in a demo and looking away from the road. Getting back into a reactionary steering and pedal management position takes a good amount of time. If driving autonomously at 80mph on the highway, it may take over 1 second (100 feet) of time to full re-engage and take-over. Keeping hands on the wheel is NOT what people who want Autopilot and Autonomous cars to do for them.
Is Autopilot safer? You can twist all sorts of statistics to fit the model but there are not enough data yet to fully use qualified statistical models to offer an answer.
NUMMI used to ship cars with beer cans and cigarette butts thrown into the spaces available in door chambers when GM and Toyota made cars there. Are the same employees back at work?
The call was full-on Wizard of Oz. Even Ken Ballo seemed "misguidedly stunned". Well, seems to be that way on other occasions too. Jonas played the part of bells-on-toes Joker.
The "renewed" Model S 60 versions have access to Superchargers included. No $2000 upcharge as in the past.
Why would someone get an S75 over an S60 (D or no D)? 8500 difference to get the 15 kWh extra miles. And it is not suggested that 75 owners charge to 100% constantly. The MS 60 will have a 75 kWh pack but only allow 60 kWh of use. This means you can fully charge an MS 60 daily without harming the battery.
The MS 60 is clearly a ploy to get more sales. It may work. I think it is needed to hit this year's sales guidance, draw in Model 3 reservations into new MS 60 this year (again, it is about unit sales - they already know people don't care about financial losses). $8500 off the MS 75 price. Very smart to offer this sale to try to meet guidance.
it is not autopilot to fear. It is the entitlement to drive dozens of MPH over the speed limits because they bought a car that can go 155 mph top speed and is rated the "safest sedan..." When there is corporate hubris, it is sold with the product. It is worse than I had hoped to come from the EV industry and dwarfs the dbags in BMWs that think they own the road. With HOV sticker in hand and 5.6 crash test stars, owners think they own a battletank. With Autopilot allowing them to work while the car drives them to work.
I see you did some weird power-math here and assume that a 90 kWh Battery going to 100 kWh actually adds 50 horsepower.
Power = is in Watts. Volts times Amps. Unless they upgrade contactors to allow more amps, it won't happen. Unless the motors are rated for higher Amps, it won't happen. A larger pack running the same count of cells in the same configuration will be the same voltage. So, where does the extra power come from? Pulling more Amps instantaneously off the pack? And if so, would this be of value to anyone other than drag racers or very-wealthy folks who "must have the latest thing"?
What would sell even more are MS 50 with less power, $4500 less cost than an MS 60.
Not everyone wants to shred tires. Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volts have more green-light step-on-it power than most consumers need. Power is acceleration - and power is for sustaining very high rates of speeds. Commuters typically need neither.
If then else logic...
If they are seeing 60-65% Model S off the line.
And if Model S vin # issuances were averaging under 1000/week for the last six months (inclusive of June 20) seen below. Then how the heck can they be sustaining 2000/week if the # of Model X is less than S?
They probably had one week of 2000/wk and capitalized on that instant (much like the plan to exit 2015 with a 100,000/year run-rate statement).
Dateline July 31, 2014... (we had to retool the factory for this)
The expected run-rate of "Production and Demand" was to be 1000 each, per week, exiting 2015.
Or 100,000 Annualized per year was the big press coverage at the time.
Meaning 2000 cars (MS, MX) produced per week the end the calendar year of 2015.
And many of us "naysayers" were saying that the run-rate was not going to happen.
But the CEO said it was.
Norway is wealthy because of oil. They will continue to pump oil and export it to keep making money.
Wake me when Norway shutters all oil wells and stops selling oil.