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joebigbuck 2621 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2016 9:58 PM Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2016 9:58 PM Flag

    So when the grid goes down the entire system continues to operate normally just using available storage and solar?

    I don't think that's much of an issue now but as batteries become increasinglly powerful and less expensive it will become more and more important.

  • Reply to

    S290 and AC module introduction

    by solar_a2j Aug 22, 2016 1:48 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 22, 2016 9:30 PM Flag

    NahI had previously stated they were ahead of the curve on cost reductions but I would be shocked if they released the S290 3 months early.
    If they do release it before Dec it would explain the comment of being cash flow positive in Q1 next year.....the ramp up of the S290 will be rapid as will the associated margin improvement.
    As for the battery...AC module.....it also is not expected to be released in Hawaii until Dec and then the rest of the US next year....so any release news now would be good.

  • Reply to

    Insider Sales

    by magoothemagnificent1 Aug 18, 2016 7:32 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 19, 2016 8:20 AM Flag

    The new CFO collected 50k shares and sold 1,618 shares....probably tax related since it's not a round number.

    The CEO sold 8,863 shares....again, not a round number so probably tax related to those 300k shares he picked up in options back in Jan.

    I wonder if the CFO leaving was related to his comments about being cash flow positive by Q1 2017? Considering they only goide one quarter ahead....and have never missed that I can find...it was an odd statement.

    The analysts and markets completely ignored it...but when you consider they need 150m in revenue at 20%....a huge jump considering estimates are around 90m....it was a bold off the wall statement to say the least.

    My guess is you'll see a 10 point jump in margins after the S290 becomes the majority of sales...but that won't happen until Q2.

    Guidance next quarter will be very telling as estimates are for a flat Q4...this in spite of the fact the CEO stated battery sales will ramp up quickly....from just a couple million in revenue this quarter.

    But for the prior CFO''s statement to become reality either battery sales need to explode up from 2m to 50m or the changeover to the S290 has to very rapid ( majority of sales for Q1).

  • Reply to

    CFO out

    by magoothemagnificent1 Aug 10, 2016 11:49 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 15, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    Did anyone notice the prior CFO''s pay averged around 1.3M per year while the new guys base salary is only 300k plus maybe 200k in bonuses if they hit if bonus mark?

    My thinking is the inventory issues back in Q3 of 2015 were the beginning of the end for the CFO.

    It would have looked very bad for him to leave back then...not so much now that the growth story has firmly resumef.

  • Reply to

    Guidance...

    by solarkings Aug 3, 2016 8:36 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 5, 2016 6:09 PM Flag

    Why would you assume flat margins? Read my post on the other yahoo board concerning margins and why they will jump up dramatically by Q1 2017.

    And stop with the straight line investing approach if you want to make money.

  • Reply to

    Test

    by magoothemagnificent1 Jul 18, 2016 4:53 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 20, 2016 1:05 AM Flag

    Nice find.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 15, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    That "WE GUY" is about as bad as they get at picking stocks. He's pumped SCTY, SEDG, SUNE, TERP, GLBL and VSLR....just to name a few.

    The only stock he's not pumped is ENPH...which hes written at least 10 negative articles in the last 6 months and yet the stock is still basing in the 2 range.

    As for me...my last call on Shah is now up over 3 dollars and is only one dollar and change away from going right back to where it was before Shah's downgrade.

    I'm starting to really like that guy...he's like money in the bank.

    As for ENPH....I expect it to base until it's very clear to everyone that the inverter market landscape has moved in their favor just as rapidly and dramatically as it did against them 18 months ago.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 15, 2016 10:55 AM Flag

    "So, no storage from Enphase in this test? I wonder why..."

    Do you homework before yapping. ENPH's batteries are not out in the US yet and won't be until next year. But by all initial appearances they are putting the PowerWall/SDEG combo to shame down under. The first phase of the test will be over this year.

    "Well....SCTY are testing smart invsrters and storage. You can figure out which storage and which inverters are being used... Unless you believe that microinverters can be coupled with powerwall.."

    Do your homework before yapping. Of course they could be combining ENPH's microinverters (the only ones on the market that can be adjusted en mass at the flick of a switch) with the Powerwall.

    The only thing you need for the PowerWall is the SEDG inverter.

    The beauty of the ENPH AC battery is that it can be combined with any antique string inverter system (which is why it is selling so well in AUS/NZ test market when the fact is ENPH just entered that market a couple years back...only around 10K total installs so far).

    So yea...of course PG&E could be combing microinverters with the Powerwall. The fact they never mention anything about Optimizers leads me to believe that is exactly what they are doing.

  • Reply to

    Boy This Going

    by gr0operator Jul 13, 2016 10:34 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 14, 2016 12:35 AM Flag

    Gas inventory should have effected all refiners about the same.

    Clearly that was not the case today as most were down far less than CVRR"s 6%.

    VLO was up...PSX was flat....ALDW down 1%....WNR...down 2%.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 14, 2016 12:30 AM Flag

    I think ENPH made a very smart decision staying away from a convertible bond....or a simple secondary (they have a 35M shelf offering in their pocket).

    At this level to get 25M they would have to give up over 25% of the company. That is WAY too expensive a price to pay IMO.

    There is also zero reason for the company loaning them the money to short the stock. That's not their business...they want ENPH to be successful and receive their 10% interest.

    It's convertible bonds that short the company into BK...death spiral financing.

    Check out GBSN if you want to know what a stock does that makes a deal like that.

    If ENPH announced a deal like that today I would have not only sold all my shares but shorted as many as I could find.

    My guess is ENPH needs this money because battery sales are taking off much faster than anticipated (see the news from AUS just today)...if they are going to expand they are going to have to build up an inventory.

    SEDG took in 50M of new venture money right before it went from a zero valuation to over 1B at the IPO date.

    It's going to be an interesting C.C. coming up in a few weeks.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 13, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Nice article. I particularly like this part:

    Solaray Energy director and battery storage advocate, Jonathan Fisk said, “We are very excited to see our first Enphase Storage System being installed. We have seen a huge interest in the Enphase solution; we now have months’ worth of installation slots already sold out – it is an incredible time for the industry.”

    “We are expecting the Enphase Home Energy Solution to be a top seller in Australia throughout 2016 and well into the future. Enphase AC Batteries are inherently safer than DC batteries, they easy to install, and what’s more, they are compatible with all of our existing solar installations.”

    The bigger picture is this is not just about a small market in AUS/NZ it's about where the all world's solar storage markets are headed as net metering fades away and battery chemistry prices drop.

  • Reply to

    Boy This Going

    by gr0operator Jul 13, 2016 10:34 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 13, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Well, it's temporarily stuck at a fib level IMO.....10 being the last solid resistance before the JP downgrade knocked that off.

    38.2% from there would get you around 6.2....which is pretty much where it's stuck at now (6.27).

    It's trading for around a 25% discount to book now....I wonder what distressed refiners sell for?

    Not saying CVRR is distressed....just trying to put this move down in perspective.

  • Reply to

    Boy This Going

    by gr0operator Jul 13, 2016 10:34 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 13, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    You really didn't think you were going to catch the bottom of a falling knife, did you?

    As long as CVRR keeps hitting all time lows it's hard to argue that the bottom is in.

    I've been buying on the way down, recently. But my thinking is this could drop into the high 5's....
    just like ALJ did before bouncing/basing.

    In the meantime I still feel this is pipeline (one time) related. WNR, PSX, ALDW have all stayed above their 52 week lows the last three months while CVRR is now down over 35% in that time.

  • Reply to

    Short interest just out 6.30

    by magoothemagnificent1 Jul 12, 2016 5:46 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 12, 2016 11:35 PM Flag

    It's interesting how similar ENPH is to SUNE in that the "We Guy"...aka Ener Tuition.... on Seeking Alpha was pushing everyone to go long while the short interest was skyrocketing. We all know how that turned out.

    Now he's pushing ENPH as a good short all the while shorts have been covering.

    I wonder if he'll ever learn?

    In the meantime SEDG's short interest remains up about 100% on the year (a stock he continues to pump).

  • Reply to

    10,000 cycles, 100% depth of dischsrge

    by johnnie_beans Jul 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 12, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    Actually a lot better.

    As you know Sonnenbatterie is really just a repackaged Sony battery with an inverter added placed inside a sleek looking shell with some cool LED lights on front (you did know that, right?). They also announced those battery specs over a year ago....so it's not really new (at least to everyone else).

    Sonnenbatterie gives it a ten year 10,000 cycle warranty, but for the life of me I can't find any percentage of life remaining after that. I guess that just means that it is still functioning on some level.

    Eliiy, ENPH's battery manufacturer, by contrast states their battery will last 12,000 cycles holding at least 80% of the charge over a ten year period.

    I like Sonnenbatterie in that both they and Mercedes are trying to start small in the kW range for home storage....both in the 2 kW range. The fact they are pushing small validates ENPH decision to start small (1.2kW).

    The huge advantage ENPH has is not just that their battery chemistry is superior it's the inverter they are placing inside the battery is also one of a kind (ENPH is the only company on the planet that sells a bidirectional microinverter). Not only is it far less expensive than others on the market (by a least 50%) it also last over twice as long.....which is why they went with a chemistry that may charge and discharge slower than others but will last 20 to 30 years.

    Everyone else is placing inverters inside their batteries that will fail shortly after the 10 year warranty's are expired...meaning their is little incentive to slow down the discharge time to increase the battery lifespan.

    Watch the video on Enphase's AUS/NZ facebook page by the salesman working the crowd at a trade show (taking pre-orders for ENPH"s battery). He's really good, I almost felt like flying down there and buying one.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 11, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    I think it's also worth noting companies that sell storage plus software are being bought out.

    "Low power prices are forcing utilities to reexamine their business models and seek new ways of making money. Interest in energy storage is growing as companies and governments seek to integrate more solar and wind into the grid. Baseload power from gas and coal-fired plants is still needed to balance the grid, which batteries could perhaps replace one day for a full transition to a clean-energy system.
    Energy majors are taking note. Total SA spent $1.1 billion on French battery maker Saft Groupe SA earlier this week in a push to expand in renewables."

    “With Green Charge, Engie immediately gains a strong position in the growing battery storage market in the U.S.,” said Frank Demaille, president of the North American unit of Engie. “This acquisition will also reinforce Engie’s strengths and skills in the activities of decentralized energy management, off-grid solutions, and power reliability, which are identified as areas for growth for the company around the world.”
    Other utilities have taken minority stakes in energy storage companies. RWE AG led an investment round that raised $45 million for battery start-up Stem Inc. last August and EON SE funded storage developer Greensmith Energy Management Systems Inc. in September.
    Engie said last year that it will invest 5 billion euros ($5.7 billion) in customer service, which includes smart grids and energy storage. The value of the transaction wasn’t disclosed."

    Stern, Inc is a baby company that is trying to sell storage plus software to commercial clients. If it can raise 45M without a problem (with no history and very limited sales) how the heck can ENPH be valued at around 100M?

    I suspect the reason is almost everyone views ENPH as an inverter company, not a software or storage one (within a few years ENPH storage revenue will dwaf their inverter sales). Q3 guidance will be the first that includes storage revenue.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 11, 2016 12:58 PM Flag

    Nahi has stated previously there would be meaningful revenue coming in from their work with large utility companies by 2017. He stated they were in talks with many of them through out the country. It seems this is the first one that decided to step up to the plate to determine just how much they can save by utilizing the capabilities of ENPH's smart inverters. Once they come up with a number (in Hawaii it saved the utility company tens of millions of dollars) you can bet negotiations with ENPH will begin.

    This is just one more trend working in ENPH's favor.

    The question I have is there any other inverter company on the planet that can make software changes to all their inverters with just the push of a button like ENPH? To my knowledge there is none.

    While today that means nothing...but very soon it will mean something big.

  • Reply to

    Curious

    by fourhourwoody Jul 10, 2016 8:31 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 11, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    "SolarEdge:
    SE7600A-US at $1463 (more than 10 inverters) - $1482 (1 inverter); P300 optimizer: $54.85
    For 7.6kW (32 modules): 3600US$ (including consumption meter)"

    As of a few weeks ago the cheapest I could find the SE 7600 was 1600 bucks (retail 2000). That's been constant for at least 6 months. Now I see them for 1400. Optimizers were selling for around 66 cheapest...now I see them for 55. So what are those recent near 10% declines telling us?

    Nahi said the competition was reacting aggressively in his last C.C. (and it wasn't working for them), but you didn't see it in SEDG's margins last quarter. My guess is you are definitely going to see it reflected this quarter when their numbers come out....similar to ENPH's #$%$ hitting the fan in Q3 last year.

    As for your comparisons...once again you're cheating. You don't need an envoy S for 500 unless you are going to go with storage....I don't have one. But if you are going to add that for ENPH you need to add 1500 for the SE 7600 USS model...the one that SEDG uses for storage.

    So:

    ENPH 30 260 Watt panel X 110 (M215 + cable) = 3300.

    SEDG 30 X 55 (Optimizers) + 1400 (SE7600) = 3050.

    Not even 10%.

    Worse for SEDG....if you are planning to use storage add 500 for the envoy and 1500 to SEDG for the USS model.

    End result ENPH is then about 700 less expensive.

    And for that ENPH gives you an inverter that will last as long as your panels and not an antique TV tube tech one that like SEDG that will have to be replaced at least once or twice over the panel lifetime (including loss of power while it's down).

    On the warranty side ENPH gives you 25 years not only on the inverter by also pays you for any power lost during a product failure.

    Remember, SEDG was gaining on ENPH when it had a 20 to 30 cent per watt price advantage...those days are long gone and never coming back.

  • Reply to

    Curious

    by fourhourwoody Jul 10, 2016 8:31 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 11, 2016 12:13 AM Flag

    Seems to me they just use different nomenclature.

    ENPH uses "peak" and "maximum continuous" while SEDG uses normal and max.

    I'm not sure why SEDG avoids the "continuous" term...they use it later when describing
    "max continuous output current".

    It's difficult to figure out why SEDG avoids the term when describing AC Power Output.

    My guess is Sella is cheating on his numbers, just as he when he states his products are 50% less than ENPH's.

    The part that still amazes me is why the cost doubles for the 7600 US vs the 7600 USS (the one used for storage).

    This give ENPH a HUGE advantage going forward as batteries prices fall and net metering goes away (everyone will want storage).

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Jul 10, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    "Tesla built their factory in order to make their own batteries at the lowest cost and so as to not be dependent on any particular battery supplier."

    No they did not. Tesla had no choice, they had to go all in on their own factory (with Panasonic) or face the consequences of being held hostage by forces they could not control.

    If Musk's vision for TSLA comes to fruition he'll be selling millions of EV within just a few short years. To accomplish that he was going to need a very large supply of batteries at reasonable prices. Now maybe the market for batteries will become saturated as everyone and their cousin rushes to produce them but Musk could not risk this. If the battery market did not develop along those lines his vision for TSLA would DOA.

    Meaning he had no choice, he had to go all in.

    At the moment it's looking like Musk's move to build that plant was a horrendous mistake, as the article I posted implies....production capacity of batteries world wide is soaring far beyond any reasonable expectation of demand...but again, at the time Musk had no choice.

    The bottom line is the lower battery prices fall the better for ENPH as the economics of storage become ever more affordable. This is just one more trend of many that currently is in their favor. But like all the other trends it just needs time to play out....and the short term risk (perceived balance sheet issues) is why the share price is so ridiculously low (100M market cap for a company that has the potential to be a serious player in two multi billion dollar rapidly growing markets).