While I think anything under 2 dollars is a great entry point and ENPN Is going to have a banner 2017 I'm not convinced it's bottomed.
I'm holding back thinking Q3 is going to show a HUGE increase in cash burn...scaring investors into thinking they'll need to raise cash again as early as Q1.
I think they are going to bring in about 17M this quarter and expenses are going to come in around 35M. Subtract about 5M for depreciation and stock and you're at minus 13M.
Then add in the assured drop in accounts payable....as high as 10M.
Inventory may give you 1M back but in the end investors will be look at around 23M cash burn for just one quarter.
Toss that in with tax loss selling and I think the possibility us there for 80 cents to one dollar.
Not saying this is going to happen....investors might realize things will change rapidly in Q4 and by Q1 their finances will look completely diffetent....cash flow even by Q1 and seriously profitable by Q2.
Now maybe investors will not panic and rather focus on the future...I just think that is far from a given at this point.
The PR was directed towards the installment community...not the investment one.
You see one mention in that release of how much less it will cost to produce....or the half size connector wire?
In the end it won't matter as their financial will speak for themselves....but geeze, it's almost as if they're purposely trying to keep their share price low.
If someone at Tesla released a PR like that Musk would have them fired. The focus of it should have been on dramatic margin improvement and future sales and profits....not just a tech breakdown of the product.
My thinking was Solar world, Jinko Solar and LG were all waiting for the S290 to be released before releasing their AC panels....and that's exactly what is happening.
It's more about price and size then it is about performance. .....similar to the S280.
Yet there is a reason why all three companies waited nearly a year for the S290 to be released....as it will change the game when it comes to micro inverters.
The turn around story of ENPH is over....it just hasn't shown up on the financial's yet.
Look for ENPH to be severely profitable by Q2 next year and never look back.
I don't know the hiring details but his compensation pavkage is listed in an 8k.
His base salary is 425k but can be raised over 1m per year if certain goals are hit.
He also picked up about 2m in Stock over three years as a signing bonus and then another 40k shares in options on top not that.
Some pretty good reasons to move on any way you look at it.
Very anemic share volume the last few weeks. I suspect everyone is waiting for Q4 guidance to see whether battery.sales will really ramp up or they pull a Musk (70,000 pre orders turned into only 2500 sales last quarter).
So much for being forced out.
He was not only named CFO but senior VP also.
My Internet is slow again but I'm going to guess he got at least a one million dollar a year raise.
So when the grid goes down the entire system continues to operate normally just using available storage and solar?
I don't think that's much of an issue now but as batteries become increasinglly powerful and less expensive it will become more and more important.
NahI had previously stated they were ahead of the curve on cost reductions but I would be shocked if they released the S290 3 months early.
If they do release it before Dec it would explain the comment of being cash flow positive in Q1 next year.....the ramp up of the S290 will be rapid as will the associated margin improvement.
As for the battery...AC module.....it also is not expected to be released in Hawaii until Dec and then the rest of the US next year....so any release news now would be good.
The new CFO collected 50k shares and sold 1,618 shares....probably tax related since it's not a round number.
The CEO sold 8,863 shares....again, not a round number so probably tax related to those 300k shares he picked up in options back in Jan.
I wonder if the CFO leaving was related to his comments about being cash flow positive by Q1 2017? Considering they only goide one quarter ahead....and have never missed that I can find...it was an odd statement.
The analysts and markets completely ignored it...but when you consider they need 150m in revenue at 20%....a huge jump considering estimates are around 90m....it was a bold off the wall statement to say the least.
My guess is you'll see a 10 point jump in margins after the S290 becomes the majority of sales...but that won't happen until Q2.
Guidance next quarter will be very telling as estimates are for a flat Q4...this in spite of the fact the CEO stated battery sales will ramp up quickly....from just a couple million in revenue this quarter.
But for the prior CFO''s statement to become reality either battery sales need to explode up from 2m to 50m or the changeover to the S290 has to very rapid ( majority of sales for Q1).
Did anyone notice the prior CFO''s pay averged around 1.3M per year while the new guys base salary is only 300k plus maybe 200k in bonuses if they hit if bonus mark?
My thinking is the inventory issues back in Q3 of 2015 were the beginning of the end for the CFO.
It would have looked very bad for him to leave back then...not so much now that the growth story has firmly resumef.
Why would you assume flat margins? Read my post on the other yahoo board concerning margins and why they will jump up dramatically by Q1 2017.
And stop with the straight line investing approach if you want to make money.
That "WE GUY" is about as bad as they get at picking stocks. He's pumped SCTY, SEDG, SUNE, TERP, GLBL and VSLR....just to name a few.
The only stock he's not pumped is ENPH...which hes written at least 10 negative articles in the last 6 months and yet the stock is still basing in the 2 range.
As for me...my last call on Shah is now up over 3 dollars and is only one dollar and change away from going right back to where it was before Shah's downgrade.
I'm starting to really like that guy...he's like money in the bank.
As for ENPH....I expect it to base until it's very clear to everyone that the inverter market landscape has moved in their favor just as rapidly and dramatically as it did against them 18 months ago.
"So, no storage from Enphase in this test? I wonder why..."
Do you homework before yapping. ENPH's batteries are not out in the US yet and won't be until next year. But by all initial appearances they are putting the PowerWall/SDEG combo to shame down under. The first phase of the test will be over this year.
"Well....SCTY are testing smart invsrters and storage. You can figure out which storage and which inverters are being used... Unless you believe that microinverters can be coupled with powerwall.."
Do your homework before yapping. Of course they could be combining ENPH's microinverters (the only ones on the market that can be adjusted en mass at the flick of a switch) with the Powerwall.
The only thing you need for the PowerWall is the SEDG inverter.
The beauty of the ENPH AC battery is that it can be combined with any antique string inverter system (which is why it is selling so well in AUS/NZ test market when the fact is ENPH just entered that market a couple years back...only around 10K total installs so far).
So yea...of course PG&E could be combing microinverters with the Powerwall. The fact they never mention anything about Optimizers leads me to believe that is exactly what they are doing.
Gas inventory should have effected all refiners about the same.
Clearly that was not the case today as most were down far less than CVRR"s 6%.
VLO was up...PSX was flat....ALDW down 1%....WNR...down 2%.
I think ENPH made a very smart decision staying away from a convertible bond....or a simple secondary (they have a 35M shelf offering in their pocket).
At this level to get 25M they would have to give up over 25% of the company. That is WAY too expensive a price to pay IMO.
There is also zero reason for the company loaning them the money to short the stock. That's not their business...they want ENPH to be successful and receive their 10% interest.
It's convertible bonds that short the company into BK...death spiral financing.
Check out GBSN if you want to know what a stock does that makes a deal like that.
If ENPH announced a deal like that today I would have not only sold all my shares but shorted as many as I could find.
My guess is ENPH needs this money because battery sales are taking off much faster than anticipated (see the news from AUS just today)...if they are going to expand they are going to have to build up an inventory.
SEDG took in 50M of new venture money right before it went from a zero valuation to over 1B at the IPO date.
It's going to be an interesting C.C. coming up in a few weeks.
Nice article. I particularly like this part:
Solaray Energy director and battery storage advocate, Jonathan Fisk said, “We are very excited to see our first Enphase Storage System being installed. We have seen a huge interest in the Enphase solution; we now have months’ worth of installation slots already sold out – it is an incredible time for the industry.”
“We are expecting the Enphase Home Energy Solution to be a top seller in Australia throughout 2016 and well into the future. Enphase AC Batteries are inherently safer than DC batteries, they easy to install, and what’s more, they are compatible with all of our existing solar installations.”
The bigger picture is this is not just about a small market in AUS/NZ it's about where the all world's solar storage markets are headed as net metering fades away and battery chemistry prices drop.
Well, it's temporarily stuck at a fib level IMO.....10 being the last solid resistance before the JP downgrade knocked that off.
38.2% from there would get you around 6.2....which is pretty much where it's stuck at now (6.27).
It's trading for around a 25% discount to book now....I wonder what distressed refiners sell for?
Not saying CVRR is distressed....just trying to put this move down in perspective.