While I think anything under 2 dollars is a great entry point and ENPN Is going to have a banner 2017 I'm not convinced it's bottomed.
I'm holding back thinking Q3 is going to show a HUGE increase in cash burn...scaring investors into thinking they'll need to raise cash again as early as Q1.
I think they are going to bring in about 17M this quarter and expenses are going to come in around 35M. Subtract about 5M for depreciation and stock and you're at minus 13M.
Then add in the assured drop in accounts payable....as high as 10M.
Inventory may give you 1M back but in the end investors will be look at around 23M cash burn for just one quarter.
Toss that in with tax loss selling and I think the possibility us there for 80 cents to one dollar.
Not saying this is going to happen....investors might realize things will change rapidly in Q4 and by Q1 their finances will look completely diffetent....cash flow even by Q1 and seriously profitable by Q2.
Now maybe investors will not panic and rather focus on the future...I just think that is far from a given at this point.
The PR was directed towards the installment community...not the investment one.
You see one mention in that release of how much less it will cost to produce....or the half size connector wire?
In the end it won't matter as their financial will speak for themselves....but geeze, it's almost as if they're purposely trying to keep their share price low.
If someone at Tesla released a PR like that Musk would have them fired. The focus of it should have been on dramatic margin improvement and future sales and profits....not just a tech breakdown of the product.
My thinking was Solar world, Jinko Solar and LG were all waiting for the S290 to be released before releasing their AC panels....and that's exactly what is happening.
It's more about price and size then it is about performance. .....similar to the S280.
Yet there is a reason why all three companies waited nearly a year for the S290 to be released....as it will change the game when it comes to micro inverters.
The turn around story of ENPH is over....it just hasn't shown up on the financial's yet.
Look for ENPH to be severely profitable by Q2 next year and never look back.
I don't know the hiring details but his compensation pavkage is listed in an 8k.
His base salary is 425k but can be raised over 1m per year if certain goals are hit.
He also picked up about 2m in Stock over three years as a signing bonus and then another 40k shares in options on top not that.
Some pretty good reasons to move on any way you look at it.
Very anemic share volume the last few weeks. I suspect everyone is waiting for Q4 guidance to see whether battery.sales will really ramp up or they pull a Musk (70,000 pre orders turned into only 2500 sales last quarter).
So much for being forced out.
He was not only named CFO but senior VP also.
My Internet is slow again but I'm going to guess he got at least a one million dollar a year raise.
So when the grid goes down the entire system continues to operate normally just using available storage and solar?
I don't think that's much of an issue now but as batteries become increasinglly powerful and less expensive it will become more and more important.
NahI had previously stated they were ahead of the curve on cost reductions but I would be shocked if they released the S290 3 months early.
If they do release it before Dec it would explain the comment of being cash flow positive in Q1 next year.....the ramp up of the S290 will be rapid as will the associated margin improvement.
As for the battery...AC module.....it also is not expected to be released in Hawaii until Dec and then the rest of the US next year....so any release news now would be good.
The new CFO collected 50k shares and sold 1,618 shares....probably tax related since it's not a round number.
The CEO sold 8,863 shares....again, not a round number so probably tax related to those 300k shares he picked up in options back in Jan.
I wonder if the CFO leaving was related to his comments about being cash flow positive by Q1 2017? Considering they only goide one quarter ahead....and have never missed that I can find...it was an odd statement.
The analysts and markets completely ignored it...but when you consider they need 150m in revenue at 20%....a huge jump considering estimates are around 90m....it was a bold off the wall statement to say the least.
My guess is you'll see a 10 point jump in margins after the S290 becomes the majority of sales...but that won't happen until Q2.
Guidance next quarter will be very telling as estimates are for a flat Q4...this in spite of the fact the CEO stated battery sales will ramp up quickly....from just a couple million in revenue this quarter.
But for the prior CFO''s statement to become reality either battery sales need to explode up from 2m to 50m or the changeover to the S290 has to very rapid ( majority of sales for Q1).
Did anyone notice the prior CFO''s pay averged around 1.3M per year while the new guys base salary is only 300k plus maybe 200k in bonuses if they hit if bonus mark?
My thinking is the inventory issues back in Q3 of 2015 were the beginning of the end for the CFO.
It would have looked very bad for him to leave back then...not so much now that the growth story has firmly resumef.
Why would you assume flat margins? Read my post on the other yahoo board concerning margins and why they will jump up dramatically by Q1 2017.
And stop with the straight line investing approach if you want to make money.