Orchid , if we get a conditional approval and the share price reaches only $15 , I will take out a reverse mortgage on my house, sell my rental apartments and buy all I can.
I begin to wonder if this is the work of a rogue trader throwing good money ater bad. I was watching the options when the share price dropped like a rock a couple of weeks earlier but see nothing obvious. In fact, I thought he shorts will have the price under control so cheaper option can be had later. Me and my tribe only managed to grab a few hundred calls before the recent rise. It wasn't easy as the MM refused to sell anything under the ask.
For those of us bought at $ 1.75-2.25 range in the bad old days, todays share price is an insult after all the recent development.
Rocketjock1, thanks for clarify the nature of the article we all thought was THE SPA. In fact someone once called Remy and she was wondering how and where did the caller got hold of a copy of the SPA. So the question is WHO has a copy of the SPA to make the asseertion that there is nothing in the SPA lanugage calling for early termination of the PRESENT trial at the 70th event analysis base on efficacy. A couple of bashers made that claim so did a long over at the my-gale site. I would hope the long in possession of a copy of the SPA share it with us less connected souls.
It is difficult to understand what exactly the shorts want to accomplish by shorting at the current level. The risk to reward is out of proportion.
Why did Woodside closed doiwn the project Hession was managing only to restart the project after he left.
I wrote to Remy last year about this issue . She got the investigators to tell me all patients were checked for immune competence before entering the trials.
Very true. They probably estimate a profit margin of 50% which I think is low. It is entirely possible Neuvax may get approved in Europe earlier than in the US.
Assigning a PE ratio of 16.16 ala AMGN gives share price of 53 in 2019 and 72 in 2020. Discount 25% a year gives a share price of 40 in 2018, 30 in2017 and 22 today.
If we get a halt for efficacy (RRR of 75% or more), 2016 becomes 2018 instantly and we should be at 40 a share. At that point deep pockets will gladly buy in when shorts try to give away free money.
Lets just say it is 55-15 and lets assume , for whatever reason, Neuvax stopped working after the 70th event so the next 70 events split 35:35 cbetween the V and C groups. At the end of the trial (140 events), the V:G would be (15+35) : (55+35). The RRR would be 44%.
Thus, if we do get a 55-15 at this point, it makes no sense to carry the trial all the way to the 140 event.
In fact, 22-48 will still get us a RRR of 31% even if Neurax does not work anymore after the 70th event.
Anyone want to bet that we will not get a halt for efficacy even if it is 55:15 or better because "halt for efficacy" was not written somewhere on a piece of paper ?