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Alliance Resource Partners LP Message Board

jrad52 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 5:18 PM Member since: Jul 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Earnings tonight

    by jrad52 Jul 11, 2016 3:11 PM
    jrad52 jrad52 Jul 11, 2016 5:18 PM Flag

    Well, I was right. But I still own VOXX, don't ask me why.

  • I don't understand today's rise in the stock price. VOXX has pretty consistently disappointed on earnings the last few (many?) quarters. The May Q is usually weak, and the added costs of the eyelock operations can't help.

  • CINR is moving up nicely, past $ 30 now. TROX is also moving up (TROX is ugly because it has titanium operations that aren't doing well plus lots of debt, but it owns a soda ash mining operation adjacent to CINR).
    No news that I can see.

    I keep wanting to buy NRP; I have missed the current run up but I also missed the drop from the $ 30s (post-split) so I can't complain too much. All of the recent news is balance sheet related and good - asset sales and debt repayment. What's left is coal, Ciner and VantaCore, plus some little odds and ends like BRP. I tried modeling 2016 and 2017 operating DCF, but Q1 was so bad for coal that I have to assume lots of improvement in pricing and production to get any decent levels of DCF.

    As I see things, the good news is (1) steel recovery - right now, the BF steel mills that were shut down late last year are still shut, and the good news mostly benefits EAF producers, which don't use coal. But if the steel recovery continues, at some point the producers will increase the blast furnace production. (2) natural gas prices have been rising, which should eventually benefit thermal coal. Based on prior statements from ARLP, the break-even point for coal vs natural gas is reached when nat gas prices are around $ 3.50 and they aren't there yet. But they are getting closer to that level and apparently nat gas inventories are dropping with the recent hot weather in the mid west. So I don't think the benefits will show up in NRP's quarterly statements for a while, but we're getting closer to good times.

    Everyone knows the bad news - high debt level and still a lousy coal environment.

    From my viewpoint, the deciding factor is the presidential race. I'm not trying to start any typical Yahoo political exchange, but I can't see Trump winning the needed electoral votes. So if we have 4 more years of the current administratiuon, I can't see investing in anything coal related.

    But NRP is still so cheap that I may give in & buy.

ARLP
21.21-0.35(-1.62%)Sep 23 4:00 PMEDT