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ANADIGICS, Inc. Message Board

jrfillion 64 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 7, 2016 7:03 PM Member since: Dec 13, 2006
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    by jrfillion Sep 7, 2016 6:49 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Sep 7, 2016 7:03 PM Flag

    Decent write-up from the street on this. Yahoo stats are mostly wrong. First ER & CC on the 13th.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Sep 7, 2016 6:49 PM Flag

    Just discovered this. Just IPO'ed in August. Has good fundamentals, and great opportunity with home sales going higher. We are lucky to get it so cheap; IPO price was $15.5 I think. Great speculation!

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Sep 6, 2016 1:03 PM Flag

    reports first in tanker sector?

  • Reply to

    Wait for $3.90

    by dhtpoorholding Aug 26, 2016 12:12 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Sep 2, 2016 7:42 AM Flag

    Perhaps you are right? I suppose it could go even lower? We all know rates are lower than normal, and routes have changed in a way that reduces ships needed. FRO guidance was worse than bad, taking down the whole sector.

  • Reply to

    Just discovered MEP

    by jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 1:47 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 31, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    Of course I did! Did I sound like a buyer? No way! All these energy plays are risky. The whole market is getting too risky IMO.

  • Reply to

    divi held!

    by andrewulsaker Jul 25, 2016 4:13 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 31, 2016 6:54 PM Flag

    Perhaps? I think oil rally is over; another big build in an already huge inventory. NG inventory also huge and going higher. I don't know what is keeping NG near $3, whatever it is, until it makes sense, I'm a watcher, not a buyer. Rig count finally turned back down. Rate hike coming soon. Stronger dollar will pull oil down even faster. Oil back to low $40's.

  • Reply to

    divi held!

    by andrewulsaker Jul 25, 2016 4:13 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 31, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    Maybe the last unless they continue the"cures". Sponsor put up $3.5M for recent quarter, and $1.5M for Q1. They continue to lose money faster. They should not distribute until they don't need cures. They are just digging themselves into a hole. That's why it got hammered recently and will probably go even lower.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Aug 31, 2016 8:56 AM Flag

    It was actually better than the analyst estimates according to Zacks. I think I neglected to realize that buying new ships and selling old ships has a cost associated with it. Short term pain but long term gain. Things may look much better after CC. But, you were right.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 30, 2016 8:02 PM Flag

    they put the Q2 preliminary results on the website. CC is at 9AM.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 30, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    How low does it go? Clearly, the market is afraid of report. When it surprises they will be scrambling to buy. Had they read guidance from Q1, available on FRO website, they would be exploiting this opportunity instead of indulging their fear. Most other tankers doing fine, simply because they aren't reporting, so nothing to fear. Maybe I'll get shares under $8 today?

  • jrfillion jrfillion Aug 29, 2016 6:42 PM Flag

    Thanks. I noticed they have an interesting history of good times, bleak times, and a few incredible times. I wondered about adding ships also. It seems they bought several new LR2 vessels to accommodate refined product from China, and they accepted a few NB VLCC ships because of price. My thinking is they make more money and beat the competition with newer ships. And, they believe the market is growing. I think the market is growing slowly for crude, but may be growing faster for refined product? I see your point though. If they can manage a few more quarters of steady dividend yield the SP will improve. I like EURN also, but will look at NAT.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Aug 29, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    Investors should look at more than just the dividend. I'm confident they can manage to do .25, at least for Q2, maybe even better. What I am most interested in is their liquidity, and guidance. They aren't dumb regarding Q3, and the future business they can secure. What was their strategy for Q3, and looking ahead. Are things as bad as the market seems to think? The market seems to favor oil companies with horrible debt over tankers with better fundamentals, why? It seems this company can conservatively sustain a yield over 12%, for longer than most US oil companies can survive. Why do many analysts bash this sector?

  • Just reported good numbers, considering what I expected, and announced an interim dividend of .55. Not quite as good as last year, but they have also bought over .5M shares and acquired several NB's with little extra debt. I had just discovered EURN when they reported preliminary results in July. But got a much better picture reading the report out today. Very surprised to see stock go down?? Gotta believe investors aren't reading the whole story, but believe what every shill says who's pumping and dumping. Interesting also that one downgrade gave a target of near 10 and praised the management??

  • Reply to

    Momo and technicals

    by westexwill Aug 20, 2016 2:11 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    FRO chart seems to exhibit strange moves. It seems many investors have a fear bias and does not wish to study the fundamentals in depth. They neither buy nor sell with any conviction. It is difficult because it's complicated. So trade it like an oil stock when they have no other news. This is one of the few sectors that is not over valued. It is a rocky market, but most of these companies make money even when day rates are low; most have good debt/EBITDA ratios, and and high bv. And bv is mostly understated since they depreciate to the max. Because they depreciate the most on NB's, the ones with the newest fleet, like FRO, report eps much lower than DCF which is a more relevant number. The bottom is probably about 8 for now, if there is such a thing for FRO.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    Surprised at the fall this morning. Almost hit all time low, after announcing a dividend of.55. New here and new to tankers, sort of, but what gives? I know it was higher, earlier, but still not bad, IMO. It seems most tankers are in a funk due to low rates. Only one doing okay is NAP; which is curious since it's sponsor can barely pay on it's bonds.

  • Reply to

    EURN reports Q2 tomorrow.

    by jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 8:36 AM Flag

    Actually not bad except for having to pay Britta 15Million as part of a JV that was terminated. They announced a dividend of .55, which is semiannual. Based on their results, I am guessing a dividend of .30 for FRO which is quarterly. MR estimates eps of .27. DCF will be higher since it doesn't include depreciation.

  • Probably not very good. They provided a warning earlier this month. They had a deal with another shipper go bad. So, not a good guide for FRO expectations. I think FRO has better management. They pay biannual which makes for an interesting dividend run. FRO getting hit hard today along with whole sector; market treats these like oil companies, until the dividend is announced.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    Is this fall about the convertible news? It doesn't seem like such bad news; I guess it amounts to dilution? A bigger concern is probably Q3 expectations. So busy here, can't get a word in edgewise!

  • Reply to

    Help Wanted

    by rogers2308 Jul 8, 2016 11:33 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    Also Platts.

  • Reply to

    any comments on MCEP VNR and LGCY

    by mopsu28 Aug 9, 2016 1:46 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 9:50 PM Flag

    True; so I playing dividend runs on hi yielders, and using options to limit risk. I like tankers and some E&P. FRO was up huge today, expecting decent Q2 report 8/31. I have calls and plan to buy puts just before report. AREX is doing great; made some $$ there but jumped out a bit early. JPEP and a few others still have yield, but they need cures from the sponsor; so I won't hold em. Good luck to ya.

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