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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

jrfillion 321 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2016 3:22 PM Member since: Dec 13, 2006
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  • Just reported good numbers, considering what I expected, and announced an interim dividend of .55. Not quite as good as last year, but they have also bought over .5M shares and acquired several NB's with little extra debt. I had just discovered EURN when they reported preliminary results in July. But got a much better picture reading the report out today. Very surprised to see stock go down?? Gotta believe investors aren't reading the whole story, but believe what every shill says who's pumping and dumping. Interesting also that one downgrade gave a target of near 10 and praised the management??

  • Reply to

    Momo and technicals

    by westexwill Aug 20, 2016 2:11 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    FRO chart seems to exhibit strange moves. It seems many investors have a fear bias and does not wish to study the fundamentals in depth. They neither buy nor sell with any conviction. It is difficult because it's complicated. So trade it like an oil stock when they have no other news. This is one of the few sectors that is not over valued. It is a rocky market, but most of these companies make money even when day rates are low; most have good debt/EBITDA ratios, and and high bv. And bv is mostly understated since they depreciate to the max. Because they depreciate the most on NB's, the ones with the newest fleet, like FRO, report eps much lower than DCF which is a more relevant number. The bottom is probably about 8 for now, if there is such a thing for FRO.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    Surprised at the fall this morning. Almost hit all time low, after announcing a dividend of.55. New here and new to tankers, sort of, but what gives? I know it was higher, earlier, but still not bad, IMO. It seems most tankers are in a funk due to low rates. Only one doing okay is NAP; which is curious since it's sponsor can barely pay on it's bonds.

  • Reply to

    EURN reports Q2 tomorrow.

    by jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 25, 2016 8:36 AM Flag

    Actually not bad except for having to pay Britta 15Million as part of a JV that was terminated. They announced a dividend of .55, which is semiannual. Based on their results, I am guessing a dividend of .30 for FRO which is quarterly. MR estimates eps of .27. DCF will be higher since it doesn't include depreciation.

  • Probably not very good. They provided a warning earlier this month. They had a deal with another shipper go bad. So, not a good guide for FRO expectations. I think FRO has better management. They pay biannual which makes for an interesting dividend run. FRO getting hit hard today along with whole sector; market treats these like oil companies, until the dividend is announced.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    Is this fall about the convertible news? It doesn't seem like such bad news; I guess it amounts to dilution? A bigger concern is probably Q3 expectations. So busy here, can't get a word in edgewise!

  • Reply to

    Help Wanted

    by rogers2308 Jul 8, 2016 11:33 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 24, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    Also Platts.

  • Reply to

    any comments on MCEP VNR and LGCY

    by mopsu28 Aug 9, 2016 1:46 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 9:50 PM Flag

    True; so I playing dividend runs on hi yielders, and using options to limit risk. I like tankers and some E&P. FRO was up huge today, expecting decent Q2 report 8/31. I have calls and plan to buy puts just before report. AREX is doing great; made some $$ there but jumped out a bit early. JPEP and a few others still have yield, but they need cures from the sponsor; so I won't hold em. Good luck to ya.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 8:37 PM Flag

    You should be running for some office yourself.

  • Reply to

    VLCC rates

    by jrfillion Aug 17, 2016 10:27 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 8:32 PM Flag

    Absolutely we gotta examine their guidance.

  • Reply to

    VLCC rates

    by jrfillion Aug 17, 2016 10:27 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 8:29 PM Flag

    Unless you have an old fleet, you will depreciate for tax savings, which kills the eps. So, they use DCF. They should not distribute all the DCF, but they probably will have more than .40 in DCF in Q2.

  • Reply to

    If you move fast,

    by jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 2:19 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    I grabbed a few, as much as I can afford; I wanted to hold enough $$ to actually execute the options if I like guidance. We all agree Q3 rates don't look too good for most of quarter. I'm curious to hear their guidance and strategy for exploiting it.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    you can make nearly guaranteed gain on calls right now. The options traders not seeing the gains, or just slow to react.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    It kinda bothers me that they need help to pay the dividend. I would rather they paid less without needing help, preferably with a coverage over 1.1. Otherwise it will catch up with them and the dividend will be cut to the bone. Not sure NG crash is over. Still have huge inventory glut that grows almost every week. NG has been up but without any real support other than hope. We really need to see inventory decline. It's too high to incite serious production growth that's sustainable. But, otherwise I like it.

  • Oil up, but only on fantasy talk; no way does SA freeze production w/o Iran. NG up also but no fundamentals to support it. Technicals indicate MEMP in downtrend. Depends on inventories to see if any support to oil+NG prices.

  • Reply to


    by ronr2016 Aug 23, 2016 10:26 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    That's part of it, but they are reporting Q2 very soon and it should be pretty decent. FRO is probably only tanker that has not yet reported Q2. This is the beginning of a divvy run, in addition to possible improvement in global economy. I think we breach $10 by mid September. FRO way undervalued at $8.50, IMO.

  • Reply to

    The old board still up is it :)

    by rogere1946 Aug 22, 2016 8:37 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    I get on via yahoo mobile on my smartphone. Don't know how to get on with computer. I hate the new yahoo finance, it locks up my pc. They must think everyone has their own server!

  • Reply to

    VLCC rates

    by jrfillion Aug 17, 2016 10:27 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    BTW, I was wrong about converting to VLCC. They added some LR2 also to haul refined product. I was reading so many tanker stocks it was easy to confuse details. They seem to want a mix of VLCC, LR2, and some Suezmax, and a few storage platforms. I had FRO several years ago, but feel like a "newbie"; trying to learn as fast as I can about the sector.

  • Reply to

    VLCC rates

    by jrfillion Aug 17, 2016 10:27 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 23, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    They are up, but the on the chart was "ws" not $. The chart was on Platts. On weber, more confusing numbers and no chart, but did indicate $31K/d for a specific route. Be aware that the report coming on the 31st is for Q2. Q2 probably not as good as Q1, but they had DCF of .57 in Q1. They held back to pay against newbuilds. Also, a couple NB's in service since Q1. You may be right on dividend, depends on how much they hold back, and, of course, the actual DCF. There are other factors, most of which, we just don't know. But reading through the last report, on the FRO website, they seem very confident for the future (Q2). Most similar tanker stocks did well in Q2. Now Q3 may be a bit harder, for sure. We will see guidance on that soon. There is something interesting about FRO's relationship with China; not sure of the details but I think it is advantageous to FRO.

  • Reply to

    any comments on MCEP VNR and LGCY

    by mopsu28 Aug 9, 2016 1:46 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Aug 21, 2016 4:49 PM Flag

    A little worried about all these energy plays. They all need higher oil and ng. No way does SA freeze unless Iran does. And, NG fundamentals not too good and mild winter coming. I am liking tankers, especially FRO, reporting on the 31st. Huge dividend, and does well.

19.71-0.17(-0.86%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT