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CYS Investments, Inc. Message Board

jrfillion 417 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 minutes ago Member since: Dec 13, 2006
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  • jrfillion jrfillion 8 minutes ago Flag

    I know yahoo numbers aren't always correct, but they have the bv for AZUR as$9.90. That means the value of their assets, after subtracting their debt, is about $9.90 * float, or approximately $100M. Of course, determining asset value is subjective; so maybe it's off, but even so, it seems like a "can't lose" proposition. I don't believe in such propositions, but I do wonder why is the SP so low? It seems like shares would be worth a lot more than $.67 even in bk. Should be interesting.

  • Reply to

    VNR bonds

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 12, 2016 12:57 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion 15 hours ago Flag

    Maybe that explains why the SP is so high on preferreds and common. Unbelievable for their situation.They seem to be made of Teflon.

  • Reply to

    VNR bonds

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 12, 2016 12:57 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion 15 hours ago Flag

    The otc symbol is ARPJ. But no board there yet. Been hoping folks would flock to IV, but it's not happening. Yahoo was the best until they decided on the new and improved finance page.

  • Reply to

    The bottom is in, IMO.

    by jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 12:03 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion 20 hours ago Flag

    Unfortunately you never know for sure. Often, when I ignore a downgrade, it turns out to be justified. So, I remain cautious on CVRR, and won't be surprised if it edges lower. But, technically, it looks like a bottom forming. If it does retest below 6, I'll buy, but with the knowledge that it is a risk. If they don't have a sustainable distribution, it will continue down. But I keep the faith.

  • Reply to

    The bottom is in, IMO.

    by jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 12:03 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 21, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    I expected a retest today; instead it pushed higher. I wanted to get more cheap shares but Mr Market said "No!". I wonder if some of the buyers are folks like PJ, GS, and JPM???I think all institutions that offer buy/sell advice should be required to announce their personal trades within a day of execution.

  • Reply to

    Guess the distribution.

    by jrfillion Jul 18, 2016 12:26 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 21, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    Then you will both be happy when you are found wrong. Did you not read the announcement of earnings and "cash distribution". It may be low, but if zero then they basically lied; because they said they would announce a "cash distribution" in the earnings report. I was pretty negative myself after seeing all those downgrades; but when a company says what they said, in print, there better be a distribution. Also; studying other analyst reports, it seems the downgraders were basically hacks looking to push the SP lower; I wonder why? BTW I think most of the market expects zero; so you are not alone.

  • Reply to

    Value per acre?

    by dogwood1855 Jun 16, 2016 12:29 AM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 21, 2016 8:11 AM Flag

    Interesting discussion and nice to know yahoo numbers for bv might be real. But they are planning to produce and profit. Can they? I guess we may find out when they report in early August. They have some debt but the banks seem to trust them to pay their bills from cash flow. Great opportunity if they can get sp even close to bv.

  • Reply to

    MEMP 2016-19 projections as of Q1 2016

    by prof.williamdyer May 5, 2016 7:03 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    Important to note they sold unburdened assets that they consider to be non core. They get about $57M applied to revolver. They can still produce enough to fill their hedges.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 4:21 PM Flag

    Seeing so many hate it at $1.70, but loved it at $2.00, got my interest. If I can believe yahoo numbers, it is in much better shape than many of it's peers. Also, the redet, though tough, is sustainable. They could pay it down with cash flow, even with a small distribution. Also, to accelerate the paydown they sell a few non core properties. And, I know they have excellent hedging. I would prefer they stop distribution to paydown quicker, but it's okay to get paid to wait as long as they can meet bank covenants. So, I'm in! And, I didn't even have to hold my nose.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    True; but it may have brought CVRR some attention. I looked at others mentioned, like CLMT, but liked CVRR best. Still, I expect a retest of lows before we get to 7. Fortunately, I am often wrong.

  • Reply to

    Jama publication today

    by timeout1833 Jul 19, 2016 3:42 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    Okay; finally got it; took long time to load. Generally positive on ProB but does agree with more testing needed. Some folks will always want more testing. My main concern is the lawsuit; I've seen companies get severely clobbered by that before. A smaller concern; the very people that need ProB the most are also the group that is least responsible and likely does not have insurance or any way to afford the "gold standard". Another concern; they don't have a 16mg capability; by the time a patient can get by with only 8mg he/she has already used the sublingual successfully; why switch to ProB? But; the bottom line will only be known when we see revenues from royalties; that's gonna take time. Might start at a good number because clinics will have to store some product, but seeing actual growth will be a year or so away. But; if lawsuit goes away; they announce ROW deals; they develop 16mg ProB??? Any of these could make me bullish again.

  • Reply to

    Jama publication today

    by timeout1833 Jul 19, 2016 3:42 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 12:59 PM Flag

    Thanks for the summary; couldn't find anything at Jama or Forbes??

  • Reply to

    Guess the distribution.

    by jrfillion Jul 18, 2016 12:26 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    BTW; if memory serves me correctly, gO estimated in the high .40's, before the MR estimates, and he ran the numbers to back it up. My guess was low because although I believe DCF will exceed .50, I'm thinking they will want to reduce debt to make themselves more profitable in future.

  • jrfillion by jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    Bounced off $5.90's twice. However, a retest is very possible. If so, back up the truck! Of course bad news could push it to lower lows.

  • Reply to

    Guess the distribution.

    by jrfillion Jul 18, 2016 12:26 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 11:57 AM Flag

    I love that kind of optimism. I love distribution as much as anyone, but rather they pay a bit less than earnings justify. That way, they are in better shape when bad things happen. If they earn.72, I would prefer about.50. Anything more than a few cents will prove the recent downgrades were hacks.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 10:24 AM Flag

    Where do you see this statement? It does sound like welfare.

  • jrfillion jrfillion Jul 20, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    Every little bit helps. What really helped was a large market order of about 50K shares at the close yesterday. Hard to imagine someone that heavy with cash to use a market order? Continuing today and certainly due for a rebound.Joseph got his shares at the bottom; I guess those guys are glued to their trading platforms instead of doing the company's business.Unless the lawsuit is determined to be frivolous, I am staying out. Nice rebound, yes; exploit it! But w/o a real catalyst, it probably doesn't go far. Good luck to all longs; they deserve it!

  • Reply to

    Strongest buy signal

    by jrfillion Jul 15, 2016 3:38 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 19, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    Maybe Carl is behind the hack jobs from GS and PJ. Maybe Carl wants more cheaper shares? Too coincidental, JPM, then GS, then PJ, then Zacks. Has to be some collusion. To me that is a buy signal. So many trying to bash it after it is already down, and reasons for being down are dissipating. Low crack spread is a problem for all refiners.

  • Reply to

    Guess the distribution.

    by jrfillion Jul 18, 2016 12:26 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 19, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    You should wait for all the "hackers" to tell you it is safe. PJ would love to push it to 3. But JPM said 8, GS said 6. If you think it should be 3, wait for it. Meanwhile what is your guess? If you read the announcement, a distribution will be announced on the 28th. IMO, they won't pay it if they didn't make it. MR says they will have earnings of about.50 for Q2. And they provided evidence for their belief. Did PJ provide evidence, or just a hack job?

  • Reply to

    Strongest buy signal

    by jrfillion Jul 15, 2016 3:38 PM
    jrfillion jrfillion Jul 18, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    I think GS target was 6, and it has been hit, only because they have a lot of clout. JPM picked 8 which was a bit more reasonable. People like those at GS make one want to vote for Hillary.

CYS
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