Good analysis. I first got in at about 12. Have been rounding up my shares after each 5% addition. Recently bought another 10% on this downturn. It's a great cash producer which contributes nice to my retirement income.
VGR's 52-week trading range is about 5 bucks, about what BIDU does in a day. People don't buy it for the price, but the dividend. As long as that and the 5% annual stock addition continue, it will pretty much stay as it is.
It really isn't guessing. It's watching this stock for years. Will it go down to single digits? Doubt it. More likely it will sell out and spin off its real estate to a REIT. At any rate, at present, I think it's a good deal. When I cease to believe that, I'll liquidate. I am five figures in the green on it. So I can hold on for now.
Yes. But they have done that for years. So they are down big today. Yet over the years they somehow mange to survive, despite the doom and gloom predicted. VGR is my biggest holding. I added a couple week ago. It just seems to chug along.