The high clearing cost further informs the demand for licensed, sub-1 GHz spectrum.
A few comments regarding the EWA/PDV reply filing posted this morning : my first thought was, that was a quick reply! Are we operating on a shortened timeline?
Interesting shift in tone: if realignment is in the public interest, and if CII community rejects having priority access, then the PEBB will use spectrum to provide an additional broadband option "of all enterprise users."
"If certain CII entities believe their broadband needs will be better served elsewhere, non-CII business enterprise users will have a commercial broadband opportunity designed to address their specialized requirements."
Also, they mention completing a "frequency swap with a very large CII entity that now is operating exclusively on channels in the proposed 2x2 MHz allocation." (Which I believe is Southern California Edison).
Reps from a number of infrastructure companies met June 20 and 21 with numerous legal advisors of FCC staff: http://tinyurl.com/z72k42e
A couple lines from the FCC's website, stated under "What we do," to keep in mind will perusing through the above posted presentation:
Promoting competition, innovation, and investment in broadband services and facilities.
Encouraging the highest and best use of spectrum
Revising media regulations so that new technologies flourish
FCC issues Public Notice for Noise Floor Technical Inquiry, June 15, 2016. Release courtesy of Enterprise Wireless Alliance:
Hey Jared. I'll say upfront, that long-term investing is not how most public companies, at least in the U.S., operate these days. Get more done with fewer employees, pay them as little as you can get away with, and toss your earnings into share buybacks - disregard infrastructure upgrades. This era of putting the shareholder first will not end well. I don't consider myself a permabear, but I am just less and less positive.
Today, the Fed should have raised the rate, if nothing else to give the appearance (at least the Fed believes) it has some control and influence over the economy. And they need to get rid of the IOER's, money isn't flowing through the banking system because the Fed is paying on it - so the money just sits, loans aren't made, investments don't take place, the cogs of the economy keep grinding down. No money flowing through is a sort of stealth deflation. I don't see an out-of-the blue Lehman event, rather the economy is just going to continue to sputter and gasp, meaning down until things freeze up.
I digress. I step off my soapbox. I see a very active next few months for PDV - expected FCC decision by November, and also the FirstNet award is anticipated to be announced November 1. The stock might not move much, down some due to hedge fund forced liquidations, and perhaps up a bit as people again toward more defensive plays, and companies with a high cash component (as of May 31, PDV has approximately $10.40 per share in cash - and that, sir, is a very nice cushio to have). May be a more volatile next few months for PDVW than we'd seen in the past. I'll post a few links to articles you ought to read, if you haven't already.
Dixon wrote, “PDVW delivered uneventful fiscal 4Q16 results that were overshadowed by management’s frustration and disappointment as it awaits a likely Notice of Inquiry (NOI), which adds time and uncertainty to the FCC approval process. Following recent intense lobbying efforts by utility incumbents, the FCC appears poised to proceed with an NOI, rather than a much-anticipated Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM). While an NOI will likely push our investment thesis out by at least 12 months, it is encouraging that (1) the utility trade associations appear interested in continuing negotiations with PDVW regarding harmful interference management, priority access to spectrum, and network quality; and (2) the vast majority of FCC NOIs do lead to NPRMs. We believe the issuance of an NOI represents positive progress and, over time, should give an indication of the FCC’s position on the 900 MHz band, while allowing additional technical interference test results to be put on record (which has been lacking in the proceeding, according to opposing parties). Commercial outreach should bolster PDVW’s position, in our view.”
First and foremost, JJCarlson, thank you for taking the time to provide your insights on this board. Here are my replies to a number of your observations, in the order in which they're written:
Though DispatchPlus is an SaaS offering, and it still accounts for more than half of PDV's revenue, I believe PDV is considered, and certainly valued as, a private wireless carrier. DispatchPlus is a key feature included when subscribing to PDV's 900 MHz network.
PDV's job is to convince the FCC it is in the public's best interest to allow for a portion of the 900Mhz to be reconfigured for broadband. PDV is also the one who would stand to benefit (generally) from this. Therein lies the problem, and why many have voiced their opposition to it. Those that are content with the spectrum they're using now - and have no desire or need for ever having broadband capability - have no interest in being forced to move (i.e. retune/replace some equipment, even if it's not on their own dime).
I appreciated you posted the link to the Notice of Exparte and Comment filings. It appears the Proposal is supported by more (a few) than just the three you mention.
"Preserve its licenses"? If you're referring to inactive spectrum that was licensed and renewed via copied-and-pasted buildout intentions (the technology doesn't exist to actually utilize the spectrum, and no one else wants it, so just pay the FCC the renewal fee, and no one think s twice) then you're thinking of StraightPath (STRP).
Agree on the FirstNet RFP. Besides, this is Morgan's wheelhouse - he again heard the enchanting call!
At least in the initial draft of the proposal, the holder of at least 12 of the 20 licenses for an MTA would be granted the full amount (needed for a 3x3 contiguous). Miami and Boston are the two big markets that PDV has yet to fulfill that requirement.
Thank you again for your input.
I intend to post my thoughts on the recent Q and CC in a day or two.
One thing JP said a couple of CC's ago that I hope is addressed on Monday is opportunities for "nearer term, enterprise machine-to-machine segments." PDV could license a portion of its spectrum to CI companies, eg. Utilities, for M2M, such as sensor monitoring. It would help establish relationships with CI companies who could then, later on, utilize PDV's LTE spectrum (assuming rebanding moves forward), as well as provide a stable, recurring revenue stream. I imagine low spectrum, like the 900 MHz, looks particularly attractive to companies desiring far-ranging, high-penetration coverage for limited bandwidth applications. That market potential might even be enough for PDV to further buildout its infrastructure, particularly in areas like LA, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. But maybe that is still far on the horizon...
I'd love it if either Mark Crosby or Liz Sachs were on the call, I always enjoy their articulate, outspoken discussions!
i wish you a very nice weekend. Regarding the CC, I'm most erected in knowing how they're progressing with on-boarding resellers; what they've learned thus far in terms of gaining traction in a market; what markets in next to be entered (my guess would be San Diego / LA, or perhaps Phoenix or Seattle).
I'm also interested in whether they've made any progress with regard to licensing out spectrum for "iot" markets that JP mentioned two CC's ago.
And, of course, the latest on the rebranding proposal, if the FCC has provided any sort of timeline as to when they might announce their decision.
Thanks Jared, I appreciate it. I will say about PDVW, on the most basic level, is starts with management. McAuley and O'Brien together piecemealed SMS systems together to create The first national wireless digital cellular sytem, renamed Nextel, and eventually sold for it for billions to Sprint. Nextel flourished once it focused on PTT (using Motorola technology)
Sprint eventually shut the Nextel network down, so these two guys go to Sprint and buy a part of that network right back, on the cheap. They'd found a niche (PTT over digital) built it out, cashed in, and are now trying to do it again with what had otherwise been dormant spectrum. And one of their hires from the Nextel era, John Pescatore, was running the perfect company for them to begin Act Two. And now it's PTT with cloud-based mobility management (cloud didn't exist back in the days of Nextel).
I leave it at that, I can provide lots of links to articles regarding their history together, FleetCall, Nextel, and thereafter, if you're interested.
Anyway, I noticed today they removed the Nov 2015 Investor Presentation from the website. Pre-planning for a new presentation after Monday's CC? Perhaps the company is planning to announce a significantly revamped go-forward strategy? Good or bad, who knows.
Link to Alan Weissberger's post of FBR's David Dixon's update on PDVW the day after the most recent CC (02/16/2016): http://tinyurl.com/hsfhuox
If anyone here is interested in further discussing PDV, I will share what I've learned through my research, and would be very interested in yours. Yahoo stock message boards are now nearly valueless, but I have yet to find anywhere else online to discuss the company, so I guess this may be it!
Speaking of storm clouds, the market appeared have woken from its bullish funk this afternoon. PDV has something around $11-12/ share cash , might not be a bad place to redirect some of your investing dollars in case the markets become testy - which I'm getting a sense may be sooner than most think.
I'll give you the factors I believe may have contributed to the May share price decline:
- On the last CC, Mr. O'Brien said they were going to be meeting with FCC regarding the realignment NPR because they'd heard from sources that a decision may made public soon. No decision has been issued.
- May 21, PDV files notice of an Ex Parte presentation they'd made on the 20th to someone in FCC Wheeler's office. If you ask my interpretation, it was, "Hi, we're still waiting for your decision. You should issue the NPR... the sooner, the better. Okay thanks bye."
- May 31, FBR's David Dixon issues some sort of analyst update with a lower price target, and suggests a decision may be delayed (FBR was PDV's sole underwriter, and Dixon is the only analyst who has publicly touted PDV, so he's essentially "The (only) Guy" in mainstream media regarding PDVW). I will just add that Mr. Dixon had a proxy fill in for him on the most recent CC; poor guy was a little unclear as to what he wanted to ask.
- June 2, FCC's Pai sent an email saying that he'd voted against GSAT's expanded wi-if proposal. Not sure as to how relevant it is PDV's proposal, other than it was a rejection of a proposal for a non-standard use of spectrum. That may have added to investor angst over the lack of update concerning the NPR.
Toss in the possibility of a FirstNet RFP bidding process, along with the resolution of the Verizon workers strike, and a law office letter urging utilities be against the realignment, and it was a month of non-activity for PDV, but one with storm clouds swirling along the periphery.
Any of you know anything about PDV's relationship with SoCal Edison? Just spectrum swaps?
Thanks for your input. And I hope you found writing not too meandering!