BTE has likely been shorted lately due to the break-even points on some of their properties. The fool, I think, just put out article about weakness in BTE based on this very point. Thinking the selloff is foolish myself. BTE has lower cost structure than DNR and will be in much better position than DNR with even $55 oil (which is likely why EB is looking at what he considers better plays short-term.)
BTE - Time to start adding here, especially if oil is down in next couple of days taking it lower. I wanted to grab 10k shares here, but decided to wait another day or so to see how oil shakes out.
DNR - A spike in oil will produce a nice pop very quickly, especially if it can claw its way back to retest recent highs in $4.70 area. Better percentage gain possible here than many other oil stocks right now. Plus, they have the asset sale announcement that could help.
Not playing any other oil stocks. Sticking with what I know. Was fooling around with EPE and CRC and a couple of others for some one day trades and decided that it was not worth the effort.
I thought that they have already paid out the cash in the settlement and the sale would be new cash coming into the company.
Yes, the net is not so good, but I am looking at the influx of new cash going forward.
Probably because Ben was buying up all the shares today.
Actually, PPS may be moving up ahead of asset closing announcement. Will be interesting to see how that announcement affects stock price, especially over following days. I did like that management had confidence that they would actually lower the amount drawn on the credit facility by the end of the year. This influx of capital from the sale is key for DNR to get through next few quarters..
I am no longer "invested" in the market due to the downside risk and uncertainty going forward. I am only willing to trade stocks right now and am prepared to dump out on a moment's notice.
There are a couple of stocks that I add/subtract shares depending on the way it is trading. ADXS is a prime example. Only willing to play a couple of oil stocks, but believe I found a couple of diamonds in the rough that will pay off at some point. Very cautious even with those as I trade around a base of shares.
I really liked MNKD, but did not like the Sanofi deal and did not like the time it may take to get Afrezza to the marketplace. Sold it all at the open of the day of the announcement and never reloaded. Thank goodness I did not.
I am waiting for confirmation of hope from increased script counts, but now thinking it is not going to happen. Quite disappointed because my mouth has been watering thinking about getting shares here at around $1. Will not buy until I have at least some confidence that Afrezza sales can increase into the 1000s. Not looking good.
As far as gold/silver, that may offer some salvation. Not sold yet.
All I need is a few good years with oil returning to $80 in that time and I will cash out my oil plays and retire and be out of the market when we take the next hit.
WTI oil definitely looks to be range bound between $40-50 with slight upside bias. A positive move by OPEC could cause a quick rebound to $60 before reality of too much oil causes a retest of $50 where it broke through to upside. That positive move would have to be some kind of agreement to control output. That being said, there are not many nations that are in a position to increase output and may be unwilling anyway considering the depressed price of oil.
Upside limited by too much global inventory and unknown amounts still sitting offshore (although I believe that offshore levels are coming down.) Downside limited by the lack of overall production and increasing likelihood that it will continue to contract.
The other factor that could cause an abrupt upward move in oil prices besides a response by OPEC would be the admittance that offshore oil levels have subsided. A forward-looking market would take this to mean that demand has been outweighing production and global inventory levels are poised to move back down sooner than later.
The big catch is that we need global economies to hold up to support demand. I have some concern here because nations that rely on oil revenues to support their economies (Venezuela and Iraq as prime examples) may ultimately affect other nations due to lack of imports to those struggling nations.
Hard to see oil much lower than $40 if world economies maintain. Easier to see oil move to $60 if a few things fall into place. Oil price below $45 likely puts weight on the reward side of a risk/reward play. Here at $47, likely a more neutral stance would be at play.
Just my novice opinion on the sector right now.
... and he supposedly reinvested all his interest earned on loaned out shares. Talk about throwing good money after bad.
If Avi8tor is still fully invested here, he is down huge. Hard to comprehend. Feel bad for him and hope that MannKind pulls off some kind of miracle with Afrezza at this point.
I did about a year ago, but only a quick look. Share price looks frothy here with quite a bit of resistance around $13. If it breaks through $13, could move quite a bit higher. Is that the threshold though that will require higher oil prices. Notice that DNR could not really get past upper $4 area where there would be no resistance up to mid $6 area. Thinking that DNR needs $60 oil or higher to see that kind of move.
That's all I have. No nothing about the company itself. $3b market cap is pretty strong in this environment. This is why I like DNR and BTE. Both sport over $1b market caps considering the weakness in the oil market and that both companies rebounded quickly when oil turned only slightly north. Notice that companies like EVEP, MEMP, WTI, VNR, BCEI, and more have not been so fortunate. AREX has always concerned me due to the miniscule market cap, but that does offer quite a bit of upside potential.
I remember a poster OLDTIMER that loved AREX and EOX. Well, EOX filed BK and is in process of liquidating likely leaving equity with zilch or next to zilch. They were both very small cap players. I even owned both for a very short time on the way down luckily getting out of both with losing anything. Caught EOX when it popped. I also owned EXXI for a couple of days on two trades in the mid teens when it tanked from $25 and higher. Thank goodness I dumped out of both purchases basically breaking even. If I had held onto EOX or EXXI, that money would have waved goodbye.
Become much more cautious due to the uncertainty in oil and am unwilling to play more than a couple of oil stocks which is why I have been sticking with DNR and BTE. Easier to keep up with the swings and understand what I own. For example, I thought I was being smart grabbing some CRC under $12 just after it had risen to $20 for a quick trade. Within a day, it touched under $10 I believe. Thank goodness I only had 2k shares. As soon as it recovered to mid $11s, I was out.
It is amazing how these experts and analysts are all over the place. Like you said, it is very difficult to predict the short-term swings. A few years from now, everyone will be crying about what they are paying at the pumps again. I hope to have a big smile on my face happy to pay $4-5 a gallon. :-))
I did the same thing with Patterson Energy a long time back. Rode that stock up with higher oil prices and even though gas prices were ridiculously high at the pump and everyone was complaining, I could not help but think about my PTEN.
If BTE price gap contracts a tad more, I would recommend some BTE as well.
Remember, there is still quite a bit of short-term risk going forward. Biggest risk is a decline in global demand and several more weeks of lackluster inventory declines due to more oil coming from offshore.
However, in light of that, the drop in oil production in China and elsewhere, the issues in Venezuela and other countries, the Middle Eastern battle over oil control (such as discussed recently with this article about Iraq and others about Iran and Saudi Arabia), the additional terrorist risks to oil, and the fact that just about everyone in the oil sector is in pain right now, you have close to a perfect storm building towards higher oil prices.
*Boy, that was a long sentence!
What you can gather from all of this is the following:
1. There will be a time when world production diminishes causing higher oil prices.
2. OPEC will have to constrain supply to a degree to see much needed higher prices to support their economies.
3. Higher oil prices will be limited depending on how quickly world inventory levels contract.
4. Higher oil prices will likely last for two to three years as world production improves again.
5. OPEC is ultimately going to lose market share again once world production rises back to previous levels and additional growth is imminent.
6. OPEC will continue to have control on market prices depending on their ability to flood the market.
This leads to possibly a world cartel of oil players trying to work together to determine how much oil is produced. That is, unless world demand keeps rising to the point that everyone will need to pump at full steam to meet world needs.
In conclusion, there is going to be a major spike in oil caused by some event. Then, there will be a pullback depending on how quickly world inventories are contracting. Oil will likely slowly rise depending on what OPEC does as far as overall production levels. It is conceivable that oil is back above $80-90/barrel by sometime in 2018. It is conceivable that oil will spike up above $70 sometime in latter part of 2017. It is unlikely that oil prices will go back to $26.
Read this article from O I L P R I C E D O T C O M
- EIA: OPEC Earns Lowest Oil Revenues in Over A Decade -
Many of the OPEC nations are caught in a pickle. They need to produce even more oil to generate revenues to support their economies. However, many have issues in raising production and due to the nature of their operations. Also, pumping MORE oil means even more oil flooding the market which will cause oil prices to drop further.
Did the Saudi's plan really work? By flooding the market and hurting world production, the Saudi's have been regaining market share for the strongest OPEC nations. As world production contracts, will oil prices recover fast enough (weakened by huge world supplies that must be worked down) FOR LONG ENOUGH before world production improves to, again, start eating away at their market share?
Based on other articles and what we are seeing, American and Canadian oil companies will survive this downturn (regardless of reorganizations and/or taking on more debt.) It looks like many of these oil companies will be able to revamp operations and return to previous production levels. The question is how long will that take? When it happens, OPEC will be right back where it started watching other nations slowly take away market share again.
If you look at OPEC's lost revenues during this attempt to hurt its competitors based on the EIA estimates from the article listed above, it will take years to recover all those lost revenues. If it takes only three or four years for the rest of the world to catch back up, OPEC's plan will have failed as they will still be back in the same position dealing with opposing nations taking away market share.
For OPEC to continue pressuring oil prices for an additional extended period of time by not constraining production, they will ultimately be chopping off their own heads instead of the competitors. This is why it is time for at least a freeze to support oil prices here.
You trying to keep brainwashing yourself into believing that this is/was the issue.
Even without any advertising, there has been enough followers and enough investors with diabetes to have at least moved scripts to 1000 or more. Just think about how many diabetics Sam has reached out to over the last couple of years. He cannot even get people on Afrezza.
Management has failed to let shareholders and the public know about the reasons for the lack of sales. Blame game is over. The market is NOT demanding the product. The product may not even be performing for the few that are demanding it.
There is no other reason at this point.
The potential for a turnaround is dwindling by the day and the dramatic lack of sales over past few weeks is the real reason why the share price is contracting. New 52 week lows are coming.
MannKind will not even be able to come out on the other side of a bankruptcy. They will be sitting on a failed product with no cash and no pipeline. What a disappointment. Glad Al Mann has passed away so he does not have to see this.
I posted a response to Kev on the MNKD conversations board about his adding shares on the way down. As soon as MNKD broke 90 cents, it was a clear sell signal. Now, the stock is down another 15% just in last few days.
As noted on these boards, it is all about the script counts and actual sales of Afrezza. Sales have been abysmal. The only conclusion that can be drawn at this point is an absolute lack of interest in the product for likely a number of reasons. Also, apparently Afrezza is not producing the characteristics of a product that is superior to the alternative whether that would be price, convenience, better and simpler regimen, superior results, etc. Obviously, there are too many negatives that are complicating Afrezza reaching the market and that is likely due to a combination of things as well including insurance, warnings, doctor's concerns, dosing issues, and trouble with results of the product.
At this point, it should be obvious that things are not going to end well. Sanofi cut ties because they saw the writing on the wall. They ran into too many barriers and their exit was a huge warning sign that has become much more apparent now.
Those adding or just now enter at these recent share prices should exit those positions. Those hanging on from much higher prices might as well continue to hang on as almost all is already lost.
ORIG has been and always will be a sham. I knew this company before it re-emerged under the new name. I believe Williams on this board was talking about this one before I put him on ignore. By the way, I would not listen to any stocks he picks. He has not done the research and has no clue what he is talking about.
I have one word to tell you about ORIG - Greece!
I have a second word for you - Slime!
"Ocean Rig UDW Inc. is an operator of semi-submersible oil rigs and UDW drill ships based in Athens, Greece."
"China’s oil production in decline. The WSJ reports that China’s oil production likely peaked last year at 4.3 million barrels per day and is already in decline, perhaps permanently. China gets most of its oil from aging and depleting oilfields. The collapse of oil prices has made many of them unprofitable, and several of China’s state-owned companies have abandoned the least attractive fields. The result will be a higher dependence on imports in the years to come. China’s top oil companies posted awful financial numbers this week, revealing sharp declines in profits."
China may have to eat into its strategic reserves to support country's oil needs and, in either case, China will likely need to keep importing oil. This means that concern of China's reducing import needs due to the reserve being filled may be unfounded. Good news for oil longs.
Vladdy keeps warning us about oil depletion and inability to replace that oil due to costs considering current oil prices and this is a prime example.
Have a feeling that OPEC can pump oil the oil that they want and we are still going to fall short due to the lack of production throughout the world including some OPEC nations like Venezuela.
Nothing more than trading pattern between two stocks in the same sector. If you look at many oil stocks, you will see groups of them following similar moves. For example, OAS and SN appear to move in similar fashion. Take a look at BBG and DNR charts over last six months. Incredibly similar. BTE is quite close as well.
When BTE and DNR were both trading at around $1, BTE has proven to be the much better play on a recovery. This is likely based on the premise that both could recovery to previous trading range AND that BTE actually has a lower cost of production on most of its fields that makes it a better play at $50 oil.
So, as BTE share price drops faster than DNR, it offers better upside when prices move back up. I did not know about BTE when they were both trading at $1. Otherwise, I would have had more money invested over there. BBG looks like another one that I like, but have only recently stumbled upon it and am still researching it. Less return (on a percentage basis) available now since it has already moved back up quite a bit. Would be more interested if it was at $4/sh.
"With DNR trading at $2.88, it looks like the risk/reward is highly in a trader/investor's favor. Believe that DNR will quickly test $3.30 again and break back through to upside. Thinking DNR should already be back at $3.60-3.80 here even considering weakness in next couple of quarters."
Well, DNR did test $3.30 and tried to break out only to fall on its face. However, notice that the gap with BTE has shrunk from $2.27 (and actually around $2.30 for some time) back down to $1.85. DNR has risen about 17 cents and BTE has dropped about 25 cents. Maybe one could trade on this disparity by going long BTE when the gap shrinks and going long DNR when the gap widens.
However, on a retest of recent highs, DNR would offer a much better percentage gain until both stock break out to upside. At that point, BTE offers a much higher return as both stocks head back towards old trading ranges. Just some food for thought.
DNR bonds just hit a new high since 6/9 with a 200k trade on the sell side. Note that there is very thin trading on the bonds. Interesting that the sell went for a premium to the recent trades.
Consider that these DNR bonds have traded down around $20 in a few cycles and are now trading above $75. If you compare to others, you have other slightly risky oil plays with bonds trading above $90. Of course, the riskiest plays that are likely to see some kind of default have bonds trading anywhere from $20-50. I suspect that those purchasing bonds trading in the $50 area have confidence that these oil companies will reorganize and survive and still reward bondholders with more than a 50% recovery.
Based on current bond trading, DNR is not out of the woods yet and is still trading in a somewhat distressed position. The bonds, however, are trading much higher than other companies in the oil sector that have higher risk of default. Equity still appears to be trading at a slight discount to the bonds based on historic trades.
Looking at a large group of bonds in the oil sector, the market apparently has confidence that the oil market has bottomed and the bonds have been bought up quite a bit since WTI oil touched $26 area.
Kicking the can down the road. Looks like management is trying to coerce the Senior note holders with debt due in 2017 to agree to pushing back maturity date to 2021 with new bonds in exchange for some stock. They are trying to convert the 2021 debt to take the same bonds with same maturity date also in exchange for some bonus stock.
The stock amounts to about a 20% dilution to existing shareholders and, in and of itself, only holds a current value of about $6mm.
I don't get it. Why would a Senior note holder agree to extend maturity date by 4 years, be placed on same field as the 2021 notes for only about $3mm or so in common stock? Yes, they still are owed the total principle amount, but they likely will get less later. Maybe I am not reading the 2017 note holders position versus the 2021 note holders in a default situation.