Yes, I see your posts due to the old board constantly logging me out.
I do not know if you realize it, but you are being quite condescending to Vladdy. Don't you think he already takes enough #$%$ from Williams and now that Josh fellow?
They should have hedged the rest at $55ish (oil futures for rest of year) when they had the chance instead of being subject to selling at spot which, in my opinion, will average $40-45 at best the rest of the year.
If they hedged at least a part of the rest of their production in the $50s, then I will believe they are very smart. I personally was not impressed with the hedges in the $30s.
Sudden weakness in BTE is another warning sign. Notice that some of the bigger players have not been hit hard yet and are still close to short-term highs. The weakest (and the more heavily shorted) are leading the way down. This includes DNR, AREX, CRC, and MEMP, for example. If you start seeing large drops in names like DO, RIG, DVN (hit pretty hard today, KMI, and ENLC/K, you should really get concerned about how much lower oil may be going.
WTI oil may try to hold $43 here waiting for API and EIA numbers. If those numbers are not impressive, $42 will quickly come. Maybe a move from $43.60 to $42. Then, over next several weeks, we may see shorts sink in their teeth and take oil down to $36-38.
In my opinion, risk to downside is greater than upside here which means keep your money on the sideline or make some small plays on those that have been beaten down the most (only for a bounce.) Of course, being short may not be such a bad idea - especially if we get a bounce in oil up to $45-46 in very near term.
I have been posting for some time over there as I have difficulty accessing and posting on this older version message board (which is much better, of course.)
I have been discussing the price of oil moving back to $43 (which it did today) and testing $42. Looking at WTI chart, it is quite concerning since it broke out of the ascending wedge and is forming a downward channel. We could be looking at $38 oil or even maybe $36 oil if market continues to see oversupply and a lack of demand to overcome all the oil unaccounted offshore as well.
I also discussed that many oil stocks were about to set new 3 month lows and DNR did it today along with AREX, OAS, SN, and others. USO is really weak and likely is going to close gap back down to around $9.5 which is more than 5% lower from its current price (which is support area around $10.13.)
I am still not a buyer here. May get another small bounce in anticipation of API and EIA numbers. However, anything less than spectacular is going to take oil lower in my opinion.
Thanks Vladdy, but I still don't always get it right. Thought grabbing some DNR back at $3.80 area when I figured oil draws would look good was a smart play. Only lasted a day when DNR popped above $4. Figured it could run back to $4.70 with oil going back to $50. Did not happen and I had to bail as DNR pulled back.
Of course, in retrospect, if I had just held my 80k shares until now, I would have lost $150k from when DNR touched $4.70 (now at $2.90.) So, even though I lost part of what I made, I am feeling pretty good about what I didn't lose. That is, as long as I can time reloading before DNR gets back above where I sold.
Right now, I am looking at a couple of things. DNR to possibly drop back to $2 with a continued drop in oil prices. Then, how will DNR be positioned at that time to survive the lower oil prices considering that their credit facility may contract again and they will likely start tapping it further.
Note that DNR bond prices have done a nice job holding $70 area. I would be surprised if that lasted much longer. It is a good indicator for now that the market believes that the bonds will not be going into default. Thus, a drop in equity valuation (maybe back to $2 per share) with a hold in bond prices would be a positive for DNR's ability to survive from a market perspective. If bonds drop back below 50 or maybe even 40, then that would be a major red flag.
I agree with Breathe. You must be on drugs. DNR is headed lower, not higher. Earnings are not going to be their best in last two years. They will be better than last quarter, but market will already be anticipating the horrible third quarter coming up. DNR going back to $2. Notice it just broke $3 today - that's a far cry from the $4.50s from just a few weeks ago.
I am able to post here. Cannot believe it. I have only been able to post on the Conversations section of the new message board.
Anyway, I have been warning about DNR and other oil stocks breaching their 3 month lows. Notice USO breaking down. Most importantly, the WTI oil chart has been screaming for a move lower. WTI is now in a descending channel after it finally broke out of the ascending wedge to the downside. Expect WTI to hit $42 and maybe bounce to $43. Thinking as time moves forward and realization that there is still too much oil, WTI will pull back to $38 and likely lower. DNR will be back at $2.
Last 30 minutes of trading saw 5mm shares change hands, dramatically higher than trading for the rest of the day and dramatically higher than the other players in the sector. Those shares were mostly sells as the share price tumbled 20 cents in last hour of trading with the stock finishing down for the day and at its low of the day.
Just a few days back, DNR traded at $4.70 and is basically now at lows seen at bottom of Brexit selloff and lows seen at previous Brexit scare just a week prior. Yet, USO and oil are nearing highs again which has coincided with the recovery of most oil stocks as well. BTE, RIG, EPE, and others have moved substantially higher from their lows.
Why DNR? Based on Eb and Ben selling out, maybe sentiment has changed. DNR now has to pay out some large green in a settlement. Cash it just does not have. Of course, by end of July, the company expects to receive larger green from an asset sale that has little effect on revenues and operations.
DNR has also had upward earnings revisions and expectations (even from company directly) are that the company will do well in second quarter. BTE has seen similar upward revisions and has rallied as a result.
Then, there's hedging issues that could hinder revenues if oil continues to climb.
So, why did 5mm shares move out of DNR today at the end of the day with DNR expected to do well with upcoming ER, with oil up, and positive cash coming from announced sale?
"go plant a tree everyone"
Would like to see a real breakthrough in battery technology to really make electric cars more feasible. Too bad Musk is all over the place and will not direct all resources into this one area. Just think of a dual battery technology where one battery can run a system while the other battery is recharged via the motion of the system itself. As one battery's energy is depleted, the other takes over and charges the first battery using this motion conversion technology. The key is that each battery must charge quicker than the other is depleted.
Of course, I need oil to go back to $100/barrel first and see DNR and BTE back in mid to upper teens. :-))
How about URZ in comparison? Now that its information is part of Energy Fuels, any way to find out how things have been going with the URZ resources? I ask because EF valuation may be considered even more depressed than URG and offer even more upside in a recovery.
Still not holding either, but considering a time to start accumulating. My primary holdings have been in oil, most notably DNR and BTE.
I also really like MNKD which has an approved drug called Afrezza. Two big problems include lack of cash to support the company and too many shares outstanding already. Hard to see the upside due to their continued need for more cash and trying to now market Afrezza on their own.
Afrezza is possibly the most impressive diabetic drug out there. Even though it is a mealtime insulin, it is proving to be incredibly beneficial to diabetics. Plus, it is not injected, it is inhaled.
Hard to believe I sold all my shares on two runs to above $10. One,, on FDA approval. Second, on run into partnership announcement with Sanofi (which did nothing for Mannkind, but waste their time.) Sanofi is gone now. MNKD is only trading a shade above $1. This is a prime example why you cannot just buy and hold.
Bought back in 3k shares yesterday. Sold 1k just now at $1000 profit. Holding the other 2k.
Decided it might be a buy the rumor, sell the news, type of deal. Not sure if anything significant will or can be said at the meeting.
However, management might mention that they are very close on reaching certain milestones or some kind of possible announcement. Stock could rally back to $10-12 if that happens.
I am wanting to get back to 5k shares to hold for any big news. Should have just grabbed the 5k shares yesterday and been done with it. Oh well, 3k shares to go.
If ADXS gets one of these cancer drugs approved, we could see a $50 or higher stock price overnight. Very low outstanding share count helps share price valuation on any big deal.
ADXS has conference tomorrow. I bought 2k shares again today. Wanting to get back to 5k shares, but am concerned about overall market here.
Was guessing AREX, BTE, and EPE for three of them. :-))
What you looking at Eb?
Liking AREX pullback. Also, CRC has really pulled back - risky play? EVEP way down, but has limited upside overall. BTE, I really like here. BCEI? OK, I know you like EPE.
Removal from Russell 3000 index. Rebalancing of shares. Not short covering and nothing illegal as Mess tries to claim below.
Look up the Russell additions and deletions. Huge volume on some stocks. For example, WMIH added to Russell microcap index and had 20mm shares traded at end of day with normal volume about 400k. Share price did not even budge.
Silver - What did you think of the EIA report? Did not like the weak drawdown and the fact that gasoline inventories actually increased.
Do you think imports are increasing as a result of additional global production or the slow depletion of offshore storage? Obviously, if imports had not been up so much over past several weeks, we would have seen better drawdowns on inventory.
My thoughts have been that offshore storage would have to come down which would normally pressure oil prices, but since this may be happening at peak time of year, oil prices have been able to hold up.
I think GS wants $42 and will start covering under $43. That's dang close to a 20% retracement from recent highs. Look at WTI oil chart and see where it oil may find support.
An ascending wedge had been taking form in USO and WTI oil and oil clearly broke out of wedge to downside. Oil price itself got ahead of itself and this pullback was inevitable without some major catalyst to support the higher price.
In all seriousness, there are some real questions as to global demand considering China building up its strategic reserve. Plus, cannot even find data on how much oil is being stored offshore that has not hit the books yet. I am betting that offshore oil has not come down which helped support the rise in oil prices. With the likelihood that some of that oil will be pushed to shore, oil could take a big hit as a result.
When you consider that US and global inventories are still near highs and a true balancing has still not occurred, it could be some time before demand outweighs production to a point where inventory levels start to come down.
I think the poster that discussed China reducing inputs to reserve may have a very good argument that the demand / production imbalance will continue for some time. Regardless of less oil production in the US, Iran's exports alone have more than made up for that difference.
How about 200mm extra barrels of oil in inventory? Going to take quite some time to work through that inventory. Also, do you have any idea what the gov't has been doing with its strategic oil reserve? Have they been adding to support oil prices or have they been sitting flat all this time?
Do you know where global inventory levels sit right now and how long it will take to bring those levels back down to normal? Do you know how much demand China has been supporting by increasing their strategic reserves? Any idea how much demand will drop when the stop stockpiling?
Better rethink that $100/barrel in a snap.