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SPDR S&P Retail ETF Message Board

kirkydu 46 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Oct 30, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Shelf!

    by trampdad22 20 hours ago

    Such an ignorant thing to say. It's been sitting there a long time. They're paying back their underwriters for the last one by doing this now rather than waiting. It's a lousy 8% of float but raises $100m.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Invest in EXAS don't trade

    by kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 8:02 AM

    EXACTly!!! Buyout, IF it occurs, happens in a few years above $40/sh and probably well over $60/sh. $100/sh is very achievable if people actually don't want to die from colon cancer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $12.50 important level, could breakout big there

    by kirkydu Jun 24, 2016 4:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    hey, look at the price, you can kiss my...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not just 54,000 Cologuard tests ….

    by xzw7yx_2000 Jul 26, 2016 5:53 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 10:22 PM Flag

    excellent post

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    beginning of filling the gap

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 1:17 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Lol. Model on Price is Right???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exact's path and time frame

    by kirkydu Jun 16, 2016 12:09 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    Pretty strong confirmation today about growth path. Importantly we learned test price, as I've said over and over, will be firm to slightly higher in coming years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    beginning of filling the gap

    by kirkydu Jun 14, 2016 1:17 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    Wow, look at that. Shorts on fire. The next stop for $EXAS is around $22. Then if Q3 & Q4 are good, new highs by winter 2017. Listen to my 9 years of being mostly right most of the time, or Whitney Tilson whose firm keeps shrinking for some reason.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $12.50 important level, could breakout big there

    by kirkydu Jun 24, 2016 4:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 26, 2016 11:06 AM Flag

    Hmmmmmmm, look at that. A breakout above $12.50

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Invest in EXAS, don't be tempted to trade. Real money is made by those who patiently hold fast growing companies. There is no reason to take profits until EXAS sets new highs next year. Repeat after you: "I am not a trader, I am an investor". Only top 10% traders have any business trading against algos, prop traders, hedge funds and ex-pro trading networks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Long or Short Just So We Are Clear

    by l0410z Jun 30, 2016 4:28 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 1, 2016 8:00 AM Flag

    I think is VERY likely that in the next year or two that EXAS announces a development partner or partners for certain parts of the pipeline. They might issue a little debt too. I doubt they issue shares unless for a strategic transaction as they'll be profitable next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $12.50 important level, could breakout big there

    by kirkydu Jun 24, 2016 4:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jul 1, 2016 1:00 AM Flag

    I like drinkydus. I agree, EXAS is coming out of the valley of despair/death (depends which chart you like). Only thing that can hold it back is bad execution.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cologuard vs FIT & EXAS 3-5 year outlook

    by kirkydu Jun 18, 2016 10:40 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 30, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    Seems there is some accumulation in EXAS on this thesis. Breaks 12.50 and holds on a weekly, there's another big leg up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $12.50 important level, could breakout big there

    by kirkydu Jun 24, 2016 4:02 PM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 30, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    Well, suddenly EXAS is at 12.50 almost like it was foreshadowed by somebody with little birdies to talk to. This is important. If it closes over 12.50 this week that is a sign the gap will fill sooner than later. I'm going to get a Hershey bar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If it breaks 12.50 on next try, the shorts are going to have to scramble big. That'll be a battle ground price. Shorts won last week. We'll see the next time.

    Both of these guys cited $12s.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-stocks-to-watch-2016-06-16?page=2

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/06/23/biotech-stock-bounce-picks-up-momentum/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#550fda455102

    Was also in technical newsletters including one at MarketWatch

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/06/23/biotech-stock-bounce-picks-up-momentum/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#550fda455102

    need sub to see that one.

    What's very important is a lot of newsletter traders are getting this info. If they pile on and push it through, as networked traders are apt to do, EXAS could fill the gap to upper teens very quickly. The short interest is like a dry pine tree. It could go up quick.

    Very little incentive to take gains right now with positive catalysts and potential for breakout. Even if it doesn't breakout this time just hold, it will eventually.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cologuard vs FIT & EXAS 3-5 year outlook

    by kirkydu Jun 18, 2016 10:40 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 21, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    yeah, I could be conservative. I actually think we'll see around 5m tests by 2019-20, but even my conservative posting makes this a much higher market cap company. Shorts and folks who are looking at buying EXAS can make use of the middle view.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only about 60ish% of prescribed FITs get done. But that still results in 11m test per year. Cologuard has far higher compliance and is going to get reimbursed by 100% of the market soon. That means docs, who are most concerned with compliance, will switch to once every 3 years Cologuard vs every year FIT. So, there will be about 18m FIT + Cologuard prescribed per year with a great % per year being Cologuard. By late next year EXAS could be having 250k/q tests. By 2019-20 EXAS could have the entire market and be doing around 5m tests per year from about 6m prescribed at compliance around 80%. This is ex-foreign markets.

    remember to divide total # of FIT by 3 to get total number of prescribed Cologuard.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If patients are compliant, the two tests are roughly equal. Here's the thing, we know that less than 1% of patients are compliant with FIT. That's how low. Under 1%. Why? Because it has to be taken every year for a decade to get the cumulative screening benefit that is necessary.

    Virtually nobody stays compliant with FIT. In fact, most people are out of compliance by year 3 or 4. So, with Cologuard, which is an improving technology that's already equal to FIT, being an only once very 3 year test, compliance sky rockets in comparison. The name of the game to dramatically reduce colon cancer is compliance. That is why Cologuard will take over virtually all of the FIT market within about 3-4 years (just as FIT did to FOBT so this is not unusual).

    There are 10-11m FIT per year. That means there will be about 3-4m Cologuard per year by decade end just by taking FIT market share. There is also the unscreened population of over 20m people to tap into as well. In addition, it is likely that many people, particularly those on Medicare & have had a colonoscopy at a younger age, switch to Cologuard. Finally, since the test gets retaken every 3rd year, it's not just new patients, but repeat patients that occur in year 4 (2019-20...). So, there is a very real possibility that there are well over 6m Cologuard test done per year by 2020. That's $3b in revenue right there without taking into account anything outside of the U.S.

    Ultimately I believe EXAS takes a partner or partners to develop parts of their pipeline of over two dozen products. That will alleviate cash burn, which will be coming down on net by Q4 this year anyway and relieve the possibility of needing to issue equity. There's a chance the company might even avoid issuing debt (I'd prefer small debt and specialized development partners).

    I am maintaining my $40-60 price target for end of decade and believe the outlying possibilities lie to the upside north of $100/share if a buyout materializes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Next week I'll have an article on Seeking Alpha regarding EXAS business model, catalysts over the next year and range of expected revenues through 2019.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I wonder if shorts are starting to give up the ghost finally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ACA requirements

    by softmachine3 Jun 17, 2016 11:05 AM
    kirkydu kirkydu Jun 17, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    HEDIS and STAR are coming, but it might not be until next year. If EXAS gets HEDIS next month that's a big bonus.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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