A great hypothesis and one that I like most provided that the BO price is at or above the century mark if it is imminent. However all possibilities must be considered to keep it real.
The surest thing about all of this is that something is up but only few know what it is and the BB are 2 of them.
I expect the question will be asked at the upcoming CC next week and a pre canned answer will likely increase suspicions of a deal in the making.
atpl, 7K is a lot of nerves and those nerves of yours must be more titanium than steel. I think we will do well given that the shares held up relatively well during Friday's bio meltdown.
Things should get smoother once this bit**h of an election is over and forgotten.
Good work KK
thought that I replied to you earlier but don't know where it ended up. Given the results of your research then it seems that things are proceeding on schedule with our forecast of BO by mid '17.
A big dip at the opening is a foregone conclusion unless there is a PR pre opening. Could be an opportunity for those with steel nerves and a wad of cash.
Atpl, see my reply to Red. This type of move is a bit over my head in terms of the legal implications. It would be nice for SGEN to shed some light on it but I'm not expecting miracles.
For sure something is going on, as where there is smoke there is fire and everything happens for reason. I'm encouraged by the relatively low volume on the drop. Tomorroww will be interesting.
My biased opinion leans the same as yours. Takeda is my first choice too.
I can't offer a lawyer's perspective on the subject as I'm not trained to know the legal intricacies. My thinking is along the same line as yours, but we know that we are vastly biased. The BB's bought their last batch no more than a couple of weeks ago, so what could they have possibly learned that's negative in the past few days to make them want to dump their entire 31 percent holding?
I would say not much. Adcetris no longer working is pretty much 100 percent not likely. CD33 failure is also not even remotely likely because they just started the trial. Adcetris for lupus? Maybe but not so drastic. Failure of Echelons? How could that be given that the sicker people live.
As far as partnerships go we just got good news on CLDX (Glemba) and Astellas. Not much else out there that could go bad.
Today was a really bad day for at least the top tier Bios and for the overall market. The $3 drop was achieved on low volume (800K shares) and the MMs have played these games many times before to help shake some shares loose.
I can always be wrong but I'm not buying that the BB's are prepping to get the hell out in a hurry. As in a previous post, I believe that this time the smoke is for real and they are getting set to exit with a big profit. For all I know they could be surrendering their whole holding to a buyer that the BOD has been rejecting in order to get their way. There is no way to know for sure and like you I also would like to hear opinions for more legally minded sources.
Nonetheless, I hope that BB's are playing fair and not try to force a takeunder.
With such dominant holder that is always a risk and it has been on the back of my mind for a while.
Was against overall market weakness and appears to be related to SGEN collaboration with Celldex for their Glemba melanoma drug for which they are expected to disclose positive results next week (ESMO I think).
I have not found a writeup on the subject with information that allows an educated guess on the revenue sharing from it (maybe I did not try hard enough for lack of time). Being that Celldex is an early stage biotech, they probably did not pay SGEN very much upfront and/or in milestones, therefore it may be likely that profit sharing may be significant. If so, then by "18 SGEN could be on the cusp of generating revenues from 3 oncology drugs (ADCETRIS, Glemba and CD33 which is in PIII now). If Celldex follows through and does in fact shows good data for Glemba, it will turn up the heat on anyone who may currently be in the process of negotiating a BO of SGEN. Even if Glemba revenue sharing is not so significant, it provides additional proof that SGEN's technology can be effective across the whole oncology spectrum and probably beyond (remember Lupus?) and it also raises the heat (and the price).
Never thought about that. Wasn't 47 the beginning of the boom and 53 the end of it? Or where they the wonder years?
Can't be that last one, '17 -'18 will be the wonder years. ;-)
Hi again red,
Today's action was another beautiful performance by SGEN in a schizo market and more confirmation that this time it's different.
Too bad I only have very little cash to take advantage of a president Trump market nasty.
BTW Hoping this is not too intrusive on you ( and if it is don't be cautious in letting me know) but how long have you been 47?
I had that same bad thought about the jinx right after I pushed the button. Still with BB continuing to load up to almost 52/share, it is a pretty good endorsement from the side clearly in the Know. Investing in biotechs is never a certainety for good results but with BB still adding almost another million shares this high up, sure sounds as if they are clearing their piggy bank to get all they can while they can. While this also means many more mornings without a BO one is most likely imminent by mid '17.
BTW if I'm screwing this up there will be no retirement for me and I will be still shoveling it when the grim reaper shows up. I'm in this one up to my eyeballs.
But who's worried? ;-)
Been here many times but I do not recall another rally with a single pull back day and a minor one at that.
This morning again felt like that today was going to be another profit taking day but it did not last that long. If this bounces over 60 in the next couple of weeks and holds it for a while, it will be a pretty clear signal of negotiations going on quietly. Given that this cannot go hostile because BB are the only deciders, things can stretch out for quite a while without a peep. If it parks in the mid 60's the going price will be north of 110 for the balance of calendar '16. Not there yet but we are close to getting confirmation of the rumor.
GLTA patients and investors alike.
It certainly would make the most sense for Takeda to buyout SGEN. They more than anyone else have their finger on the Adcetris pulse being that they are distributors to the ROW. Although they may not have as good visibility in the rest of the pipeline, they also have advantage knowledge of the base technology's nuts and bolts and how good a moat the many patents provide. By all accounts they should make a very aggressive first offer to quickly close the deal and avoid the likelihood than in a protracted negotiation someone else walks away with the goods..
A $ 15 billion right now would be a reasonably strong offer but if they wait until beginning of new year to make it, by then it will be inadequate as the end of one ECHELON will be near and early readouts on CD33 and/or LIV1A may trow a wet towel on that size of an offer to make it grossly inadequate.
Having worked extensively with Japanese partners, I also know that decision making is a big struggle for them so much so that I would put the probability of Takeda making a $15 billion offer before the value leaps higher, is just about 50 percent. Simultaneously, the BB are not known to leave money on the table especially for what ithe crown jewel of their holding and being that they as much inside info as anybody can have, the $15 billion may already be inadequate from their perspective. I give the chance of a bidding war just about 70 percent now and 90 percent by Q1 '17.
Every place when I worked for publically traded companies there were backout periods prior to major events. To the best of my knowledge, the 6 month rule is generally adhered to to elimimate potentially running into trouble with SEC. As far as I'm aware, the BB are law abiding citizens therefore I am interpreting their buying as an indication that no BO is in the works yet. That does not preclude good results becoming known at any time provided that they arise from blinded trials.
Great follow up. Today SGEN held very well while the market got trounced. It closed slightly on the red after spending most of the time inthe green on very substantial volume. To me the large volume on a day like today when SGEN sustained only a nominal loss means tremendous buying pressure. It has taken over two years to climb back above $ 50 and given the circumstances this should now serve as reasonable support. I'm not saying that in a general market meltdown SGEN could not be thrown out with the bath water but all that nothwithstanding I'm very happy with my investment.
Can't stand the new yahoo board and there has noot been much to say anyway.
Although this pop looks like many others before, after today it does have a slight slant to the different. Tomorrow will be telling if it does not give back a whole bunch of the last few days gains. I don't think that what has happened is due to much short covering. If it holds, we may be witnessing the beginning of the jockeing that preceeds a takeover which would be fundamentally similar to many others. We are likely about a year a way from results of the first of the Echelons and less than two years from the conclusion of both. The timeline has plenty of intresting potential results from intermediate trials a couple of which could be explosively revealing intermediates (CD33 and LIV_1aA) that could force the FDA into early conditional approval(s). This is now playing up to the script of my personal expectation.
My instinct is that the recent target SP of $60 places a solid floor of $100 for any acquisition proposals and it may actually be a shot across the bow for lowballers ( Such as SNY) to sharpen their pencil or to not bother.
As I previously commented, I'm hard pressed to envision how SGEN is not BOd over the next very dynamic two years. The only issue is the price and that is very critically related to time elapsed from now. It seems pretty clear to me that the low end of the range has been set at $100 and that it will move steadily to double that by end of '2018 barring any intervening disasters for the ongoing trials.
I've been feeling very good about the inprudent heavy concentration of my investment in SGEN and what is evolving makes me feel better yet.
Having said that, I'm obviously very biased in my thinking and has it has happened several times over the past couple of years, it only takes a tweet from one of the two top currently dominating broads of politics to crash this party. Provocation or not, potentially beneficial rabble rousing is reality.
That and the opportunistic market makers taking advantage of the corrupt candidate liar to once again tank the whole biomedical sector on very low volume. That makes it 3 times in a row that the biotech sector is taken to the wood shed by bundling the whole sector for the few rotten apples committing the same crime soliciting the same politicians that sponsored the corrupt FDA which granted Mylan a license to steal, by denying approval for a generic alternative on grouns of a BS issue with the injector and dragging their feet on fully licensing a second generic from Teva for yet unknown reasons. Time and again I've lived to regret my vote for a president whose second term administration is proving to be the must corrupt since Nixon.
Not found another place yet with as an intuitive format as the old yahoo was. I was forced to be a beta tester (they hijacked one of my machines) and gave them feedback which they obviously ignored. I have yet to find one poster that likes the new format. Redesign is supposed to improve form, fit and function but in this case they traded a well working system for a vastely inadequate new one. Marissa Mayer engineering I guess.
BTW my moniker (koolbrez22) appears as Yahoo user in the new format that I can see.