No surprise, really. Refining margins have been under pressure for several months now and it's taking it's toll of earnings and stock prices. Analyst consensus for VLO 2Q 2016 is nearly 30% less than year ago earnings. There appears to be no catalyst for change in the immediate future. That said, I'm long here. The company is going through a downturn and still posting decent profits. When the supply/demand equation improves in the distillate market you'll see a $70-80 range for VLO.
Actually, both companies are much overvalued given CURRENT earnings, IMO. My point was that I think analyst opinion didn't factor in the recent spike in oil prices and they will probably be revising upward if the rally continues. This is not to say that ANY of the major oils are out of the woods yet; WTI would have to rally to $55-65 before there is a solid chance of recovery.
And yes, BP did in fact reaffirm that the dividend was safe--and then reported a $0.17 quarterly profit which they will use to cover a $0.60 quarterly dividend. Doesn't sound safe to me