I just re-read the transcript, and you're right I stand corrected. I just cost myself $5/share in this stock this past couple of weeks b/c of my error on this. But as far as jumping in now, this phrase from transcript speaks to potential dilution coming:
The overall assumptions that we use in our planning are that we assume with respect to 3019 that as long as we're doing the proof-of-concept Phase II-type studies and we're not on to pivotal studies, that it would not require additional financing for the corporation. It changes, obviously, depending on what the -- when you have enough data that's compelling that you can act on a pivotal program what the cost structure is and what we're facing. And so that scenario is the only one that we've thought about as one that creates financing need.
We have since had such promising data on 3019 in interim. There is another similar phrase in transcript from CFO that basically says strong 3019 data would essentially cause a secondary. I'm still out of this name for now. GL.
I did listen to it at the time. CFO clearly said $500M, was asked to reconfirm the figure, and did so. I don't think $320M is going to be enough what they need to fund. They essentially said that they would make a decision about a secondary in the first 1/3 of the 2016. I still say they sell shares.
idiot, licensing agreements are in place for 4592; they retain full rights to 3019. jump in, man! full margin!
Good one. And how many clinical trials have you funded? If you knew anything about this co, you'd know their 3019 has clinical trials coming up that are not funded.
presentation posted on co's site this week now says they expet to have about 320mm cash at end of yr; per last cc it was 500mm. If they are on the road w/ presentation, as SEC filing basically says, they could be looking to raise more cash. stock has just rallied to prior low and underbelly of ipo price. I'm thinking they dilute it; CS pump helpful as they negotiate price. I say they offer secondary at 14 area before their earnings call. not buying this rally.
Can't even bounce w/ sector (down another 5% vs up 2% IBB), below ipo price, trading like someone knows ph III trial data is not good.
They are projecting having $500 million the end of this yr (not $1b), and I have to assume that is premised on anemia drug going well. A phase III trial costs how much? And they still have to have cash cushion. This is why my thinking was/is that they might accept partner now for 3019; would give them upfront cash and less cash burn.
So you see them funding their own Phse III for 3019; would anticipate stock dilution for that, no?
I am not an expert w/ approval process, but I assume fast track is not an option here given that there is another compound on market for the condition. Thoughts on this appreciated.
With the continued strong efficacy of 3019, they should be in phase III by H2 this yr, and approved by '17. They should be able to extract a minimum of $500 million upfront as they partner, with a string of milestone payments behind that. As their cash position is ok, their splits on the out yrs should be better than for 3492. Given the size of the market that 3019 addresses, stock should move significantly higher during this time frame imo.
If I read the abstract correctly, and I believe I do, FG-3019 (to which they own/retain all economic rights) shows significantly inreased survivability for pancreatic cancer patients when it is combined w/ another leading pancreatic cancer therapy. This is the second recent significant data point for this compound, the first being Nov data that showed 100% efficacy of FG-3019 in a trial when it was not combined with another compound. This is likely a billion dollar drug for FGEN in my view.
Don't forget about a 25+ year history of Barrons hit pieces on beaten down names right in front of significant events (such as co's presentation at invitation only JPM health care conf next week), followed by large sp increases afterwards. Parlez vous "available for hire"?