Agree with all you say, eohippus. One thing to consider is the likelihood of a broad market sell off (Lord knows we are due). I don't think the low $140 is out of the question. Good point about the World Cup. I had forgotten about that. Not having the Mayweather fight can't help either- although I realize it is only one event.
Simple...they are ETFs and the rules of supply and demand prevail. Buyers come in at $7.50 and support the price. It is COMPLETELY irrelevant as to the "math". You are overthinking this big time. It isn't physical silver. It is an equity (even if it is backed by physical silver). Supply and demand. That is all that matters. How does Tesla sell at over 50% of GMs market cap? Same thing. Everyone knows the math doesn't work and nobody gives a rat's #$%$.
Typical disgruntled employee posts. Ignore. Zero debt, wide moat, and pays almost a 3% dividend. That is all you need to know. People post this #$%$ about all companies. Do you know how many employees wouldn't have #$%$ on Steve Jobs had he burst into flames? Loving management and the success of a company never go hand in hand. I worked for a tyrant for years, and although it was difficult, he was extremely talented. Get over it.
Well...we certainly know you can't call bottoms as evidenced by the utter wealth killer debacle known as Deckers. Seriously, anyone that takes ANYTHING this guy says as "investable knowledge" is insane. He clearly has zero understanding on how companies are valued. Anyone, with ANY knowledge will admit two things about UA...that it is a wonderful, cutting edge company, that is simply overvalued relative to earnings. The company is fantastic. I would bet I own more UA clothes then anyone I know (maybe 30 shirts and shorts). The point isn't "is it a good company". That debate is over. The real issue is....will it outperform over the next few years based on a very high valuation. Could it? Sure. Will it? I doubt it. I know they will expand oversees...I know they are taking market share from Nike, etc. But, ALL of this is built in. Analysts have built ALL OF THIS into their models. There are no secrets. 60x earnings is a lot of risk to take. If you want to take it...I wish you luck. Cisco was / is a great company too. I sold it in 2000 at over $100 per share. It now sits at around $18 with much higher revenue. Why? Because ALL companies slow down, and then the momentum crowd leaves them for dead (see CMG) and that is that...
What about DECK? That was some fast thinking!!!! All the way to the poor house. Keep up the "great minds". BTW, genius, "thnk" is actually spelled "think". You really are a legend in your own mind, aren't you? Laughable really. Please let me know ALL your future buys. I will blindly short all of them. Taking the opposite side of the trade is easy money with you.
Indian....still don't have any manners, hugh? Keep buying that Deckers bro. What was your first buy...$81? Are we supposed to take you seriously? A Warren Buffet you are not. Now if you shorted DECK from $81 then I would respect you....but...you didn't.
Your're up 60% on your investments? I think we both know that isn't true. Keep on averaging down on DECK bro. Good call on a second rate company with a flagship product that nobody wants anymore. What were you thinking?
Yeah...Cramer "seems to be learning from you". You= high school diploma...Cramer= Harvard Law. Congrats on your "world beating" call on UA. You are a legend in your own mind. Maybe u can break even on the DECK trade with your UA gains. Net zero beats a loss. Keep drinking that Kool Aid...your ego is a good source of humor for me. Keep the chest pounding comments coming. I love reading them. Hey...in your spare time, maybe you can cure cancer or work on global warming. You know...if you aren't busy. LOL.
Chilcopter and doitag....you seemed stressed? Maybe a little Dr. Phil to calm you down? Keep averaging down, guys. The bottom has to be near. Unbelievable how dumb you three are...
Wow...you three are an emotional mess. Indian...you are down 50% AT LEAST. You need a 100% return on your investment to break even. I am the idiot? LMAO!!!! You are a punk kid that never learned the golden rule in investing....admit when you are wrong. You can't do it. I have never read anything you have written where it said "I have reevaluated and I was wrong about this company". You take the easy way out. You say, "The market is wrong!!!!!" You are a kid that has read a few books. Big deal. Also, comparing Deckers to Apple? Are you #$%$ serious? You are talking about the most valuable company on the planet and comparing it to a boot manufacturer. That is like comparing Roseanne Barr to Megan Fox. Laughable.
Lastly, I was not disrespectful in my dialogue with that other guy. He politely responding that he had a stop loss...or something you don't have...which is an exit strategy. Grow up, bro. Learn some respect, and keep that job at Chick-fil-a....you are going to need it.
You are insane to buy this for your retirement. A trade, maybe. The market is telling u that this company is in decline. This is NOT a case of a good company selling off on non-company specific events. This company, clearly, has issues. Forget about "how cheap it is". No one cares. It is cheap for a reason. Proceed with caution. I am not short and definitely not long. Good luck. Buy puts to protect your downside.
I am not trying to kick you when you are down. Far from it. I just can not understand why you would cling to a stock that is clearly in decline. I know, I know...you see value and the market is wrong. Clearly, there are issues at Deckers. We ALL make mistake. I have made a ton. I think some critical analysis is needed here. One of the greatest mistakes an investor can make is not admitting when they made a mistake. Of all the retail stocks out there....this one has the best future? I know you have done well with UA, but that is clearly a superior company by any metric (besides valuation). I would strongly advise you at least buy puts. Good luck...I hope this one turns around for you.
Nosmo...you state that this is going "much lower", yet your target is less then 5% from the current price? Was that a typo?
If you REALLY want an eye opener into Jim Cramer then Street Addict isn't the book you should read. Get a copy of Trading with the Enemy. It is a phenomenal, funny, yet disturbing book about a guy that was employed at his hedge fund for a couple of years. Cramer sued to block the book because it accuses him of insider trading (I believe 4 pages were taken out of the book because the publisher didn't want the legal battle).
Anyway, the book is rare and hard to get. I have a copy and it is both profound, and hilarious. One of the better books I have read.
While $1 billion is nothing to sneeze at...it compares to you or I having $50,000 in the bank vs. someone else having over $500,000. It isn't close.
I was reading through the posts and noticed two things. First, you are generally interested in disseminating pertinent information about True Religion. Second, you are long. So, I was wondering what your general thesis (catalyst) is for the shares moving higher (instead of lower). I have poured over the numbers and I must say that this, at face value, appears to be cheap by ANY metric. Couple that with the no debt and high dividend yield and it looks like a no brainer.
This leads me to believe that the "smart money" thinks it is headed lower. Admittingly, I have never owned, or even shopped, in one of their stores. I could never bring myself to buy a $300 pair of jeans, although I have friends that do (and one in particular says they are the best jeans he has ever owned). In a fragile economy (arguably heading into another recession) don't you think their price point is...well...high?
Also, it looks as though the women's side of the business is not growing and that it is men's jeans (and really only that) that are propelling the stock along (and generating great free cash flow I might add).
Anyway, I would be really interested to know if you are a consumer of their products, and why you are an investor? I am strongly considering selling puts (SEPT 12 $20 strike)and hope it gets "put to me".
Any info you care to share will be greatly appreciated. Also, I think you might like the site Seeking Alpha, as they have a few articles about TRLG on there as well. Peace.