The only similar stock that I was in was Claude and it already did the multi-bagger thing and got bought out.
The other stock I am in that will one day likely be a multi-bagger is Endocyte. It is a biotech developing a cure for some cancers by attaching a lethal drug to a molecule that allows it to travel through the body without damaging other tissue. It is $4 right now (was $3) and has $3.50 to $4 in cash. If they partner up or get bought out, it will be in the $30 to $40 range. I only have 10,000 shares of it, but at $30 it would be a nice little return.
Ok, notes, not bonds. It is very hard to refer to them as notes when Etrade calls them bonds and I buy them on the Etrade bond desk.
Hah, how can you day trade these when there are days that the volume is zero?
Good points, but the only caveat here is I would like to see some partial responses (complete response would be great but that is pie in the sky) as we are well into the dose range that should be able to do this. I do realize that people were not screened for FR+ but still, the odds say we should see a few PR if not a CR out of the entire group of MDT testing.
I think all we have right now that they have released is SD, which by itself won't get us to $60.
First, Do has wife and girlfriend, while Ultra is too ugly even for a date.
Second, and this is the real reason. Ultra has a defective gene (jean?) that does not allow him to use the proper version of they're, their, there and Do does not have this gene. If you look at Do's posts, while they do exhibit purposely poor grammar, to my knowledge he has never mixed his theirs.
I didn't see much trade on the 2019 notes today and a little bit of trade on the 2018. I expected a bit more trading on them considering TC was up 20%.
Even if TC were buying them at 50% it would be a good deal, so no need to worry yet. When they refinance, they will have to pay 100%. That is where I am going to make my money.
Still a good opportunity to make at least a 200% return (100% of par plus maybe three more quarters of interest payments)
14% of par was so nice....sigh.
FR100%+ is not extremely rare (if it was, then the population Endocyte can treat would be too small to be worthwhile). It is possible we just got unlucky and there are no FR100%+ expressing tumors in the types of cancers EC1456 is best at targeting. Or perhaps it just takes longer at MDT than we have had so far.
There is also a chance we have some partial responses but they have not been disclosed yet.
Actually I am kind of with Ultra here. I would like to see TC buying the bonds cheap from weak hands because it makes my bonds much more valuable. If TC were to buy up half of all the bonds at under 40% then it is very likely the remaining bonds would eventually reach 100%.
2018 has all the action right now and I want to see if there is any interest at all in the 2019 (which has more interest lol)
2018 had some small trades for 45% of par while the 2019 has an offer for 17% of par.
I got 1 bid for 35.something which is a joke, so I cancelled the request.
This tells me there is not an entity sitting on the retail market right now trying to get cheap 2019...nobody is going to sell for 35% of par when the less desirable 2018 is selling for 45%.
Of course, but if there were an entity buying on TC's behalf it is possible they would snap up all of the little trades. Perhaps $20k is too small to engage this proposed entity....I am not really sure how this would work. Perhaps there was never anyone buying on the retail market on TC's behalf or TC is out of money now for note repurchase.
The only reason they have the same yield to maturity is because the 2019 have an extra year (so theoretically you would get your full 100% for the 2018 a year sooner).
In what universe though do you believe TC will pay off the 2017 and 2018 entirely and not address the 2019?
I think the 2018 and 2019 are both refinanced in 2018, which means the 2019 has a higher yield to actual maturity.
For ACA reasons (to keep my subsidy), I would rather not have much more income in 2016. Trading Gilead has already made me what I need to meet 2016 ACA 133% poverty minimum income goals.
So I have this account with cash in it, enough to cover maybe 10 to 15 puts. I am thinking about writing Jan 2017 puts as the income generated would appear on next year's taxes and ACA MAGI calculation.
Jan 2017 $95 puts can be sold for around $7.20. $7200 for 10 of them, which would be a nice chunk of change for next year.
The real question is how this is going to perform tomorrow. Perhaps waiting would get me $9,000 for 10 puts, or maybe it jumps 10% like Facebook and I only can get $5,000.
Give it a rest. Even Ultra has slipped up and called them bonds in the past:
"ultraific2 • Sep 29, 2013 11:07 PM
Most of the analysts that bother to ask questions on TC's conference calls are generally wet-behind-the-ears newbies. On the last call there was one guy who was decent, but he was really focusing on the bonds, and the liquidity of TC. Much of the critical research I read on TC is stale (obsolete) or sheer paranoia."
"ultraific3 • Mar 22, 2014 1:21 AM
When they do refi, it might take two forms: So (likely in Dec 2015), they'll knock out $300-400mm in new subord., longer-term bonds pushing the maturities out 8-12 yrs"
Like Claude getting bought by SSRI (more of a merge though)
I never could make up my mind where to write puts, good thing. I am holding a few hundred shares of stock though. Oops
low 80s even at $11 earnings is PE 7.2
A bit low in this market yes?