There's even less float than that. Schuler-Strobeck-Patience-Feinberg-Management (Mehren and others)--control almost 70% of outstanding shares. It's thought that a good portion of the remaining 30% is in friendly hands as well.
Shorts always have an argument. The 510k will dispel the biggest one that the product doesn't owrk. The argument is now that it will never sell.
Quite a range there Pelosi. One value is 4 times that of the other. Imagine if you were a real estate appraiser!
During the past week--approximately 200K shares were sold in aggregate. That's roughly $130M. Thus, it is hard to state that the "market knows".
What is certain is that only top management an the triumvirate (Schuler, Strobeck, Scully) know what type of deal will be struck. It's safe to say that they are not going to be selling a 16% interest to Aspire for $3MM.
My point? At least I have the ability to say that I have no idea of what will take place.
1. Big changes are afoot. You don't announce "strategic alternatives" with virtually no money in the bank and expect the status quo. When you read yesterday's filing (which was innocuous) you know that a decision will be made before the end of June. They have to. They simply don't have enough money to go on from here.
2. As of now, it looks like MBLX will indeed move to Woburn. Their lease starts today. Their Cambridge lease ends the end of July. So between now and then it appears that they will be moving. Of course, that can change and you can cancel the moving trucks. But you have to have sometime to set up an office facility in Woburn and you just can't leave that for the last moment.
3. We also know for certain that roughly 3/4 of the stock is spoken for by Schuler, Scully, Strobek, Shaulson and other insiders. We also know for certain that there is--as I write this on June 1--not a penny of debt. We also know that the aforementioned bought most of their shares for $1.50--but Shaulson has basically worked for free during this time because he was compelled to buy shares at a much higher price when he was hired.
What we don't know for certain:
1. It appears from the tenor of the filings that the biopolymer business is as good as gone. But we have no idea how much money it will bring.
2. It appears that they would like to hang on to Yield 10--but due diligence indicates that this might be on the block as well.
3. The real mystery in all of this is MBLX's relationship with CJ and frankly CJ in general. The March 29, 2016 conference call was brimming over with optimism. And six weeks later, CJ is never mentioned in the filings. We can speculate all that we want. CJ went through a feasibility study and Iowa sources have indicated that they were contemplating a factory that cost $100MM. But poof! Not a word since then.