I've been out since early this year, and i'm staying out.
I hate to say this, but they really deserve this outcome. Their credibility was completely destroyed, with quarter after quarter after quarter of failed promises, shameless excuses, rationalizations, and MANIPULATIONS of the investment community....and it will be a very tall order, imho, for them to complete a deal with TDK by the deadline date, or refinance the debt due in early 2017.
The company has existed as a CAPTIVE SLAVE to Seagate and WDC for years now. It has no independent pricing power....and now it is LOSING sales...despite absolute assurances from this "bube squad" managment team of "market share gains." I feel like a complete sucker for having believed all of their drivel.
Nothing these guys have EVER projected, in like the last 7 years, has come to fruition. The management and board here have been so "incestuous," over the years, that there is just no outside perspective. It's like lemmings walking off a cliff basically. One of the worst managed companies I've ever been involved in. Basically more of an "engineers' clearinghouse," than a bonafide operating entity.
This should have been sold YEARS ago.....but it was too important for them to maintain independence. Now, they will rightly pay the price of the humiliation of a bankruptcy on their hands.
Sad, tragic, and outrageous. A complete farce.
...are sticking. June 1st and july 1st
Adjusting for the reverse split, we had volume of 867,000 shares today. The last time we had that kind of volume was EIGHT YEARS AGO, on June 27, 2008, when we traded 1+ million shares. (But that was a day that Emmis was kicked out of the Russell 3000, so it doesn't "count.") Prior to that, the most recent heaviest volume day was October 24, 2006, when we traded 912,000 shares. That was almost 10 years ago!
Make no mistake, today's price and volume action is a WATERSHED. It signals two very important things. 1) Even though buyers "wanted to buy," they were holding off, waiting for the "inevitable drop" that was "supposed" to happen, after the reverse split. Today's action validates that the stock was artificially MISPRICED. (Look at the upward trending stock charts of ROIAK and ETM and you'll see what I mean.) And 2) The reverse split is actually a VERY GOOD THING, as, when the stock pretty much inevitably trades above $5, over the coming weeks/months, it will actually INCREASE the trading liquidity, as more institutions, who happen to "fall in love" with the NextRadio story, are actually PERMITTED to buy the stock, driving up both the price, and volume, such that we may actually witness, on a day to day basis, going forward here, more volume than PRIOR to the 1 for 4 reverse.
I am not normally a "hypester," but i must say that i am giddy with delight...and anticipation! I believe in the story. Mi believe in the assets. I believe in the turnaround in New York and L.A.. I believe in the management team. And i believe in the HUGE kicker potential, and "sex appeal" of NextRadio.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is also worth mentioning that despite the "washout" of their big New York shindig, and weakness in publishing (half of which is timing related) that they are STILL guiding to be down to a comfortable 5.0x on the leverage at year end. I view the stabilization in L.A., along with the stated expectation of continued strong performance from the New York cluster, to be the "real story" here, and an affirmation that the cash flows are going to remain in an upward trend, and the debt quite comfortably manageable, going forward. (It will be especially interesting to see how long Charlie Morgan can "work his magic" in New York, and continue to beat the market big time. If he can do that for more than just 4 quarters, the value added proposition will be quite significant.)
If I were the CEO, I'd want to take it private EVEN MORE than the other two previous times I had tried.
I was delighted to buy 5000 at $2.90 in the morning. And was buying yesterday as well.
I own nearly 2% of the company, including affiliates. I expect this to be one of my major winners this year.
I've got it on my ultra rare "super strong buy" rating.
Per the company presentation at the annual meeting (yes, I attended), you get like a 22% free cash flow yield, and the kicker of Nextradio for "free." They've been building this asset for years now, and the " full launch," across the entire radio space, is impending, but the Street treats this thing like it is a "pipe dream" of a "dying industry," and that Jeff Smulyan is a "pied piper" on a bridge to nowhere. But that's not what I see at all.
There will be at least SOME value generated by people using the FM receiver in their cell phones, and the benefits to the industry (and Emmis) will be MATERIAL, I'm convinced. For the Street to assign a NEGATIVE value to that proposition is absurd, especially when we still have the money losing Pandoras and Spotifys trading for the market caps they do. At the very least, radio AUDIENCE SIZES WILL INCREASE, and that will be fully MEASURABLE, and worth SOMETHING.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Definitely the kind of thing I feared, as a shareholder. (I retain a token position here.) These are "yesterday's brands," and it will be a huge challenge for such a small outfit to reinvigorate them, and grandiose of them to think they will be able to, when they are so undercapitalized. I will withhold full judgement until i see the sales and ebitda that are generated incrementally, and I'll give them some credit for acquiring something that at least plausibly synergistic.....but they still have the "Goldstein problem," which prevented them from doing the lowest risk, highest reward, thing, which was breaking up the company and selling it off in pieces....merely because the CEO "needed something to do," and couldn't let go of the "family tradition," and continues to control enough stock to force the board to "do his bidding." No bitterness here. Just the facts, as i see them.
I made my money here, a few years ago, and left a "double" on the table for the next guy, but it turned out fine for me, and I have no regrets. It was also a great "laboratory for activism."
Well, i think it "should" easily be trading at $1.50, right now....and could trade up to $3 on the "intense hoopla" i expect, around the full promotional rollout of NextRadio, over the coming months.....and the eventual cinching of Apple. After that, if they start getting real revenues from this, the stock could be a ten bagger from here, in just a few years. But i'll be happy enough with a triple or quadruple. The real "danger," as i see it, is a swooping in by the ceo to "take us out." It would seem to be more tempting than any other time he has tried to.....so you gotta seriously wonder we he doesn't just line up, say, $50 million in financing, at $1.25 a share, and make another go of it.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What's not to like? He is the CFO of Air Canada.
This is the first time, in 6 years as a director, he has bought, in the open market.
This thing is crazy cheap.
I call this a super strong buy!
Definitely worth reading. Chinese guy named Chen wrote it. I agree with his thoughts 100%, and he has obviated my need to write my own article. (Read the comments section of the article.)
Note DSWL has been paying a dividend for 20 years continuously, was continuously profitable, since going public in 1995...until the last 5 years.....and earned as much as $1 in EPS, as recently as 2005. They are getting the train back on the tracks with the new CEO they put in a few years ago (who is well incentivized with upwards of 10% ownership of the company), and the Street is not paying the attention it should. While I hardly expect them to get back to historic profits or margins, 30-50 cents in EPS seems like a reasonable possibility, in a few years, which would, alone, get the stock back up to a $3-5 trading price. But the founder, and his esteemed CEO, will probably try to take it private, before that happens. iMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for your interest, but this is one of my largest holdings, and I don't expect to be selling any until we are well into the $2's. If you want more stock, I would say you should just keep nibbling in this price range.
But you failed to mention that POT said that they see the market coming into balance in the not too distant future.
I bought more at $1.24 today, btw. Based on institutional 13F reports, I am one of the top 20 quasi-institutional holders... Although there may be nonreporting individuals or institutions of larger size.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unfortunately, the Street remains unwilling to give the company credit for the value of its assets, and tends more to look at ongoing EPS as the measure of value here. if we are now Maybe a 40 cent in EPS company, and that is the net contribution to "retained value," the underlying ROE is poor. Furthermore, if they don't show traction with the acquisitions, over the next 12-18 months, then a write down of goodwill and intangibles becomes an even greater risk. In addition, their stated intent to make acquisitions in tools, and that there are "no bargains" out there, means they will be adding debt and goodwill back on. In short, I could never have imagined things would look so "uninspired," after the Q1 earnings release. (I was thinking the release would actually be a catalyst for the stock.) Especially disappointing was the generally negative tone, with Horowitz's reference to the "weak economy" (is the problem the oil and gas market, or "the weak economy" broadly?). To me, this is suggestive that performance will be disappointing, over the next few quarters. Will the Street decide to suddenly accord a company with more "hidden asset value," than it had before, a higher valuation? Was the sale of Nationwide partly a desire to reduce debt, as a "reaction" to a sense that the overall (entire) business was going to have deteriorating financial results, and the company wanted to protect itself from getting into a "pickle" like 2009-2010? To me, the special and regular dividend seem PREMATURE, since we don't know what the company is going to look like, going forward, from an income perspective, with the 1) expected new acquisitions and 2) success of recent acquisitions. I can appreciate that the company is now debt free, and that might justify the dividend policy, but realistically, i never did understand the financial management here. With the stock at $8 and change, shouldn't a buyback (not a dividend) be job number 1?
Hardly what I expected, for the friends and relatives that still own this stock.
Message to P&F board: time for a stock buyback, if you believe in your future.