My concern about the technical picture is wondering what choices by KLAC that governmental agencies might consider "anti-competitive." Antitrust has been a non-issue for so long that I was really surprised that AMAT was unable to buy TEL. I would not want to be holding as much LRCX as I do if the KLAC merger were to founder.
Yes, the Brexit is going to hurt international trade but as usual it depends to a great extent on whose ox is gored.
Some of the current comments have come from people that now trash the very "globalization" that was touted when I was in B-school more than 30 years ago. Globalization is helping a new generation of techies at the FANG companies but leaving a huge segment of society behind.
An article from Foreign Affairs that I read a couple of years ago argued that there are two types of jobs in the new economy: 1. those that produce goods and services that can be consumed anywhere in the world; and 2. those that produce goods and services that can only be consumed locally. The local consumption producers have been left behind since the mid 1990s per the article even as the anywhere producers, like the FANG companies, have surged ahead.
Those left behind naturally resent job competition from recent immigrants that they perceive as lowering local wages. I remember comments from the board circa 2000 about programming jobs shipped overseas, a process that has accelerated and that even claimed my own wife's job after 20 years. Therein lies much of the support for Trump and for Sanders.
The parallels between Hitler/Stalin and Trump/Putin are indeed disturbing. Why the democrats stupidly offer us only yet another version of the vile Clinton presidency is beyond me. Inertia trumps creativity again.
I personally do not see why free flow of labor is essential to the entire picture for either EU or US. It enriches the rich further and diminishes the middle class. So why would the middle class vote for it?
This industry chases the ever more elusive will of the wisp.
“My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.”
That is about my take on it too; I might put it a little differently as "EUV, while it is here and apparently viable, is going to take a lot of work before it is in production on a massive scale."
Still, with INTC backing EUV, there could be some big breakthroughs that would make multi patterning less important, if not obsolete.
The Seeking Alpha article comparing the value of the NVLS and VSEA acquisitions is poorly written but illustrative of how a merger can be good or bad in ways that are hard to foresee but easy to criticize in hindsight.
Another historical parallel: Rick Hill did not like how the shift to 300mm wafer played out for the tool makers.
"Be not the first by whom the new is tried, nor yet the last to lay the old aside."
Interesting development: ASML's latest acquisition, Hermes Microvision. I was not aware that KLAC had given up on EUV metrology; or at least that is Maire's opinion. According to the article ASML was forced to buy Hermes to make sure EUV metrology tools are available.
I am okay about wasp extinction. What really gets me is that the European honey bee is seemingly on its way there too. And at long last, the killer bees have arrived locally. Nasty little varmints.
Hint: You sound like Hillary Clinton telling Bernie Sanders to go away and get a life so she can acquire more power and money.
And BTW I am very familiar with the Stalin/Hitler deal over Poland's dead body. There are lots of good books on it and there was a great little film of it on the History Channel a few years ago. The film put together newsreel snippets of Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim Von Ribbentrop sneaking around with evil grins on their respective faces.
What I wonder is how many people remember Ribbentrop's link to Wallis Simpson and the former English monarch. (There is a nifty History Channel film on that too.)
Hey Chief: I know that Trump is no great guy (and that thing about trying to get people to pledge undying loyalty to him was creepy and reminiscent of The Adolf) but HE MIGHT IMPROVE. Hillary has 30 years of history that will never change. With Bernie now essentially gone we are left with a "choice" limited to the naggiest battle-axe shrew ever to set foot on the planet.
Her pitch to women is all she has and it is a complete hoax because Trump is right about one thing at least: she is a classic enabler of her Cosbyesque husband. And Bill will be back in the Oval Orafice if she is elected. If you have 45 minutes to kill sometime, watch the1999 videotaped interview with Juanita Brodderick. That is what the Clintons are really about. They work as a team to acquire power and money and they are not interested in anything else. Uh, er, I mean that Bill might be interested in one other thing, but not with Hillary.
Lotta stuff going on, macro and micro. No one metric is going to dominate the action now. Go check out old whiny on the Klic board. He has been counting pennies on trades based on earnings alone for years and all he has to show for it is a lot of complaints about how unfair life is for failing to agree with his assumptions. Let Carl Icahn have his day. It is costing him a lot.
Sooner or later tools gotta be bought cause there is no tomorrow for anybody without them.