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QR Energy, LP Common Units repr Message Board

m20m75ph 75 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2016 11:09 PM Member since: Jun 21, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Barron's

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 6, 2016 11:37 AM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jul 7, 2016 11:09 PM Flag

    That was my takeaway too, but unfortunately, banks have a lot of latitude to use just about any price deck numbers that they want.....

  • Reply to

    2 MLPs That Offer Risks but Plenty of Reward

    by gladysz Jun 7, 2016 7:05 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 28, 2016 10:35 PM Flag

    Thanks for posting. I own DMLP - been looking for an entry into BSM - good luck

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 28, 2016 8:13 PM Flag

    Update. API reporting a larger than expected inventory draw of 2.4 million barrels. We'll see, the real report comes tomorrow at 10:30.
    This has moved the market back about halfway from the brexit stumble - quite an accomplishment with the firm dollar.

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 28, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    we are still importing more than 1 million barrels a day from the Saudis - i think the average is about 1.2 - used to be closer to 2 - but, since aramco now owns the largest us refinery, they have established a powerful beach-head in our market and will always be a big part of our imports.

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 28, 2016 8:10 AM Flag

    "The problem is US inventories don't necessarily reflect the market, as we import so much oil."

    You are right of course. But the inventory haze cuts both ways - Saudi inventories are down 38 million barrels in the last 6 months. Their ambitious plan to punish the frackers and Iran has greatly diminished their stocks - in effect, that inventory was just transferred from their tank farms to ours....

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 27, 2016 10:34 PM Flag

    So then 8x for the equity. I like the preferred better at 6x. I'm already loaded with bonds....

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 27, 2016 10:01 PM Flag

    But we are still steadily progressing toward balance of we are t there already. Likely to see some big inventory draws in crude and gasoline this week.

  • Reply to

    Is LGCY going bk?

    by slboot Jun 27, 2016 1:24 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 27, 2016 9:24 PM Flag

    Yep, some shifts in the relative values across the capital structure. If LGCY can flow $1.50 at $65 oil - think that was your number - then we can put a $15 target on the equity - in which case we are nearing a 10X. Preferreds have slipped to a 6X and notes are at 2.5X.

    Pick your poison.

  • Reply to

    almost $3 million in bids now for Breitburn notes

    by m20m75ph Jun 23, 2016 11:10 AM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 23, 2016 4:38 PM Flag

    8 million volume today.

  • Reply to

    almost $3 million in bids now for Breitburn notes

    by m20m75ph Jun 23, 2016 11:10 AM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 23, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    its all relative, but i don't consider $.20 cheap considering most of us own the debt at less than a dime.

  • these aren't individual investors. the institutions, etfs and funds are long gone, so, maybe hedge/vulture funds? whoever they are - welcome aboard!

  • Reply to

    EROC bonds

    by cubemeister2001 Jun 20, 2016 12:03 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 20, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    agree. i own the EROC bonds.

    think there is a perceived risk because they were assumed by VNR.

  • Reply to

    MLPs for Dummies -Question

    by donnapurplegirl99 Jun 15, 2016 8:09 AM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 15, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Thanks for raising this issue. I think a lot about this - is the upstream MLP model flawed and thus doomed? or, did most upstreams wrecklessly chase yield in the pursuit of accretion and leave themselves hopelessly dependent on unsustainable energy prices? in the case of the latter, was it bad management as opposed to a flawed model?

    The idea of owning mature producing assets in a tax advantaged vehicle makes a lot of sense. Look at the royalty trusts - a favorite of mine. Many of the older ones were supposed to be gone by now but their production is actually up in some cases - this is because the efficiency of maintenance capex has gone way up and many of these assets are more rich than many originally thought.

    Some day energy prices will recover and credit will again be available to the upstreams that are still standing - i think that will be LGCY, MCEP and maybe VNR and MEMP - question is whether management will then be able to exercise restraint and discipline.

  • Reply to

    What are the bonds worth?

    by m20m75ph Jun 10, 2016 3:09 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 10, 2016 7:13 PM Flag

    Good points cheap. Kind of hard to really benchmark sales to pv10 anyway, with PUD and many other intangibles like lifting cost etc. - I just had the MCEP deal at 1.5 X but you are right the strip has moved - somehow 1.2 seemed reasonable to me but it's only the back of my envelope.

    In light of the fairly strong demand for the bonds I have been trying to decide whether I should lighten up or take another bite. In my mind the numbers support at least the current pricing and maybe more, so I am feeling better.

  • Using my back of the envelope math, BBEP has total debt of $3b - 1.85b secured (including the 2L) and 1.15b in the unsecured notes. On the asset side there is only the hedges at 500m and the NPV10 which was at 1.3b as of 12/31/15 (based on $45 oil and $1.76 gas). So, if we have to scorch this thing to the earth, there is no money for the notes, preferred or equity.

    But I think there are 3 things that mitigate the above 1. strip pricing is much improved and trending up, 2. looking at recent sales by competitors VNR, LGCY and MCEP, they have all traded above the respective NPV10 valuations for the assets sold, and 3. since there is no imminent harm to the secured creditors, it appears the court will keep extending the stay and work to protect all of the creditors.

    If we look at a 6-12 month BK period, I am going to use $60 oil and $3 gas to come up with a $2B NPV10 (I got this by extrapolating 2014 NPV10 of $4.5B based on $95 oil and $4.35 gas). Next, assuming a conservative value of 1.2X NPV10, I get $2.4B plus the hedges which might be only 300m by then, so we are at $2.7B which might be 850m or about 80 cents on the dollar for the notes.

    With the notes currently trading at 15 cents, I am considering adding to my position.

  • Reply to

    Got paid today!

    by shabang77 Jun 1, 2016 3:34 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph Jun 1, 2016 4:29 PM Flag

    IB. Is that a recent switch? Seems I remember you had mentioned you were with somebody else... Are you happy? I think IB handles fixed income better than some other brokers that I have had some experience with....

  • m20m75ph m20m75ph May 31, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    somebody topped it at 21.11 - its only 40k, though, a retail investor....

  • Reply to

    Bond price

    by cooldr.money May 27, 2016 10:34 AM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph May 31, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    take a look now. the erocs are showing a bidder at 21 for $20 million of bonds - isn't that 40% of the whole outstanding?

    or maybe a new retail bond investor made a mistake....

  • Reply to

    $3B Debt/ $2.5B Reserves @ $50 Oil

    by nomadinx May 27, 2016 4:22 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph May 29, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    No dopey. You said they must maintain hedges - that statement shows that you really don't understand the process - but you talk like you do. Just because they haven't liquidated them doesn't mean that they can't. Hedges are highly liquid and a sale would likely get quickly approved by the judge. Mgt is making the right decision by not pushing for a sale, though, in my opinion, because paying down cheap 1st lien debt without concessions is not accretive.

  • Reply to

    $3B Debt/ $2.5B Reserves @ $50 Oil

    by nomadinx May 27, 2016 4:22 PM
    m20m75ph m20m75ph May 29, 2016 11:48 AM Flag

    Wrong again dopey. Cash flow was and is positive - they filed because the lender was pulling the plug on their LOC - so it was a liquidity issue - big difference.

    Since you have such a big mouth and are so rude to others, you should at least try to be accurate.

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